2011年7月1日 星期五

7/1 Business Insider

     
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Finally! Skype Gets Video Chat On Android (MSFT, GOOG)
June 30, 2011 at 10:00 AM
 

skype video chat on android

Skype has finally released the much-anticipated video chat update to its Android app.

iPhone users have been enjoying Skype video chat since January, and Skype has been promising the update since then. Video calls will work over Wi-Fi and 3G.

The downside: Only a few phones work with video calling right now. If you have a Google Nexus S, HTC Desire S, Sony Ericsson Xperia neo, or Sony Ericsson Xperia pro, you're in luck though.

Support for more devices is coming soon.

Skype is a free download from the Android Market.

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Can India ETFs Beat Inflation Epidemic?
June 30, 2011 at 10:00 AM
 

Emerging market investing has been a pretty rough road for the vast majority of the world’s regions as concerns over debt in the developed world as well as a possible slowdown in some key developing countries has caused many to pull out of risky markets entirely. As a result, broad based funds such as VWO or EEM are down on the year and are lagging behind their counterparts in the West, and even some bond funds as well. While this trend has hit all markets, some have been much more impacted than others. Markets such as Malaysia, Russia, and Poland are all up at least a few percentage points so far this year, outpacing many of their rivals across the globe. On the other end of the spectrum, are three countries that have turned in by far the worst performances this year; Egypt, Vietnam, and India.

While Egypt is down for obvious reasons– the ousting of long time president Mubarak and the political turmoil that has followed– Vietnam has seen its market plunge thanks to a devalued currency and continued long-term fears over the nation’s ability to get its economic house in order. Given this weakness, many might be surprised to see India, a stalwart of many emerging market investments, among the worst performing regions of the world so far in 2011 [see all the India ETFs here].

India, as one of the four members of the BRIC group of nations, has been a favorite for emerging market investors for years. The country has tremendous promise thanks to its relatively well-educated English speaking workforce, rising incomes, and its strong demographic profile that is far superior to the fellow rising giant in the region, China. However, this growth has come at a cost and now inflation is nearly spiraling out of control across the country. The rate of price increases for food in the country recently accelerated to 9.0%, a far quicker pace than the nation saw just a week before when prices increased by 8.55% in comparison.

Although India has seen impressive rates of growth for several decades now, millions of the country’s billion citizens are still extremely poor. In fact, it is estimated that India spends close to 20% of its income on food and close to 37% of the nation’s people are considered extremely poor; making less than $1.25 a day. With such a large number of citizens making so little, a 9% year-over-year increase in food prices can have drastic implications for the entire country [Inflation Fighting ETFs Back In Focus].

In response to this, the country’s central bank has already hiked rates 10 times in the past 15 months, and many analysts are looking for the central bank to hike rates by another 75 basis points by the year end. Currently, rates stand at 7.5% after the bank’s latest hike in June, but inflation still remains at close to the highest level among all the BRIC nations. "Notwithstanding both signs of moderation in commodity prices and some deceleration in growth, domestic inflation risks remain high," the central bank wrote in its mid-quarter policy review. "Against this backdrop, the monetary policy stance remains firmly anti-inflationary, recognizing that, in the current circumstances, some short-run deceleration in growth may be unavoidable in bringing inflation under control."

At this level, rates are the second highest out of any major economy– only lower than Brazil– suggesting that the RBI doesn’t have very many options left when it comes to rate hikes in order to curtail inflation. Furthermore, since the country imports nearly 80% of its energy from abroad, an oil spike later in the year could boost broad inflation readings even if the central bank engages in further rate hikes, potentially crippling the economy from two sides [also read Emerging Market ETFs: Seven Factors Every Investor Must Consider].

Thanks to this reality, India ETFs are among the worst performing products in the emerging market category, only beaten out by the likes of Egypt and Vietnam, two nations that no one wants to be in the economic company of at this time. Take a look at how the region’s ETFs have performed so far this year:

ETP YTD Performance
India Small Cap Index ETF (SCIF) -20.6%
EGShares India Infrastructure Fund (INXX) -19.7%
EGShares India Small Cap Fund (SCIN) -12.7%
iPath MSCI India Index ETN (INP) -11.2%
WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (EPI) -10.4%
PowerShares India Portfolio (PIN) -8.9%
iShares S&P India Nifty 50 Index Fund (INDY) -8.1%

Perhaps unsurprisingly to many investors, the large caps in India– as represented by EPI, PIN, and INDY– have all lost the least so far in 2011 with an average loss of about 9.1%, compared to the more severe losses for the small caps and infrastructure focused products that operate in the Indian market. This could be due to several reasons, first, investors should note that many of the large cap focused funds are heavy in energy, technology, and basic materials firms. Materials and energy firms generally have an easier time of pushing costs onto end users while tech firms can often benefit from inflation by appealing to companies looking to cut costs. Meanwhile, SCIN and SCIF have much higher levels of exposure to consumer companies; nearly 25% in both cases, suggesting that for reasons listed above, high inflation rates are hitting the small caps especially hard [ETN Investing: Facts And Fallacies].

How To Play

There are two ways to look at this situation; one that India’s campaign to hike rates will eventually bring down the rate of inflation or that the level of price increases will disrupt the national economy. As one can see from the chart above, further inflation is likely to be devastating to the Indian economy and could push many investors further into the red, and especially those in small cap focused ETPs. On the other hand, for investors who believe that India can get its act together and keep inflation in check, this could be an excellent entry point to Indian ETFs, allowing investors to scoop up beaten down names across a variety of sectors. Additionally, sophisticated investors could play this trend by using a pairs trade, going long in a large cap ETF and short in a small cap fund in order to play higher inflation rates for the time being or vice versa if they believe the opposite to be true. Either way, investors are likely to see big changes in the Indian market in the second half of the year as high inflation coupled with large amounts of poverty cannot go last too much longer; something has to give [Corruption Scandal Sinks India ETFs].

[For more ETF ideas sign up for our free ETF newsletter.]

Disclosure: No positions at time of writing, photo is courtesy of Deepak Gupta.

Click here to read the original article on ETFdb.com.

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Stocks On Fire After Awesome Chicago PMI
June 30, 2011 at 9:53 AM
 

Boom. Add another 100 points to the Dow.

A strong Chicago PMI number helped give the markets another boost.

We're now looking at 4 straight up days in a row.

chart

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Russian President Almost Drives His Car Into A Crowd Of People
June 30, 2011 at 9:51 AM
 

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has been filmed almost killing and maiming scores of supporters when his car veered unexpectedly into a crowd in Kazan, Russia.

Sky News speculates that Medvedev may have forgot the handbrake.

Watch below:

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A Massive Fire Ripped Through The East Hampton Mansion Owned By Wall Street's Most Famous Art Dealer
June 30, 2011 at 9:50 AM
 

steve cohen gagosian

Gallerist and art dealer Larry Gagosian is a name known to any genuine art collector on the Street.

Gagosian is a regular presence in the New York social pages, and is often snapped in pictures alongside his friend and client, SAC Capital chief Steve Cohen.

In fact the pair were spotted last week at Art Basel, at a Credit Suisse-hosted dinner in honor of of Swiss-American artist.

Gagosian is still overseas, luckily.

On Tuesday night a massive fire triggered by someone soldering (doing repair work) in the kitchen, which required 50 firefighters at the scene, "ripped through [his] Hamptons mansion... threatening countless priceless artworks," according to the New York Post.

firefighter gagosian"Firefighters said Gagosian's caretaker rescued two of his most valuable pieces by running out with them after the blaze started around 9 p.m. Amagansett Fire Chief Mark Burnett said works from the dealer's legendary collection suffered no fire or water damage."

A miracle!

One firefighter told the Post that they'd managed to save a TV, too: "It was the biggest one I've ever seen."

Gagosian's home is on Further Lane -- a stretch famed for its mansions and high-net worth residents.

Apparently because Gagosian's home has "a long, winding driveway... it [was] a little harder to navigate with the fire apparatus. A gate at the front of the property slowed first responders down because they needed a gate code," Patch East Hampton reported.

Gagosian's personal art collection is reported to be worth $1 billion.

Don't miss: What Wall Street Really Does In The Hamptons >

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New York Businesses Getting Ready For Gay Marriage Boom
June 30, 2011 at 9:48 AM
 

gay wedding marriage

Hotels, photographers, caterers, and other wedding-related businesses expect to see a massive boom once New York's new marriage equality law goes into effect on July 24th.

The Financial Times reports that New York State is expected to gain more than $300 million in revenue over the next three years from marriage licenses, tourism, and taxes. Before last week's vote, the Daily News estimated before last week's vote that the bill could inject about $184 billion into the state economy.

Caterers and wedding planners hope legalization of gay marriage in New York and elsewhere in the country will spur growth in an otherwise shrinking industry: marriage rates around the country have fallen in recent decades.

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This Video Shows Explosive Activity On Twitter After The Earthquake In Japan
June 30, 2011 at 9:47 AM
 

twitter

Twitter loves to remind people about its pivotal role in sharing news and transmitting stories to people around the world.

This especially true when major news events occur. Twitter released this video as a visualization of just how active its servers became following the earthquake in Japan.

A 500 percent increase in traffic sounds like a lot, but wait until you see what it looks like.

Check out the video >

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Surprise! The Chicago Purchasing Manager index just smashed expectations. 61.1 came in well ahead of expectations of...
June 30, 2011 at 9:47 AM
 

Surprise! The Chicago Purchasing Manager index just smashed expectations. 61.1 came in well ahead of expectations of 54.0.

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Siemens Bribery Case and the Anti-Corruption New World Order
June 30, 2011 at 9:47 AM
 

The China-end of the Siemens bribery scandal came to a conclusion in an Intermediate Court in Henan last month when a China Mobile executive received a death sentence. For the most part, this was just another anti-corruption case, one of a multitude flooding China’s courts these days. However, the participation of the U.S. government, and the information it shared with Chinese enforcement officials, serves as an important reminder that the global fight against corruption has entered a new phase.

Since the case involved state secrets and was therefore not opened to the public, there hasn’t been a lot of reporting on the verdict. Caixin, however, published a breakdown of the case today:

As an industry veteran, Shi Wanzhong sat in senior positions of state-owned telecoms companies for years. In May, the Intermediate Court of Hebi City, Henan Province sentenced Shi to death with a two-year reprieve on charges of bribery.

In addition to the sentence that Shi received, Tian Qu, who facilitated Shi’s graft, was sentenced to a 15-year jail term. The court found that Shi and Tian had accepted a total of US$ 5.1 million in bribes from Siemens.

Although this was a case in a Chinese court, involving a Chinese national, foreign investors (particularly multinationals) should pay attention to how this case came about.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Department of Justice (DOJ) investigated Siemens for possible violations of the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) from 2006 to 2008. The investigation involved actions by the German company in several countries, including China, Vietnam and Mexico.

The SEC brought the hammer down late in 2008:

The Securities and Exchange Commission [on December 15, 2008] announced an unprecedented settlement with Siemens AG to resolve SEC charges that the Munich, Germany-based manufacturer of industrial and consumer products violated the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) by engaging in a systematic practice of paying bribes to foreign government officials to obtain business.

[ . . . ]

Siemens has agreed to pay $350 million in disgorgement to settle the SEC’s charges, and a $450 million fine to the U.S. Department of Justice to settle criminal charges. Siemens also will pay a fine of approximately $569 million to the Office of the Prosecutor General in Munich, to whom the company previously paid an approximately $285 million fine in October 2007.

This was a huge fine, and not surprisingly, the case received a great deal of attention not only in the U.S., but internationally. Keep in mind that the SEC and DOJ were acting under powers given to them under the FCPA, enforcing that law against a German firm. Moreover, the U.S. was cooperating with German enforcement authorities as well. Even without the involvement of China, this was a multi-jurisdictional enforcement action.

But that’s not where the story ends. According to Caixin:

After the Siemens bribery case was brought to light, information on the involvement of Chinese personnel was sent to the Chinese authorities via diplomatic channels, with Shi’s name appearing on relevant documents.

So the U.S. government, working with their German counterparts, investigates the actions of Siemens in several countries. As a result of that investigation, they uncover information on corrupt activities that involve Chinese companies and individuals. This information is then given by the SEC and DOJ to officials of the Chinese government, who use this to ultimately prosecute Shi Wanzhong and Tian Qu.

That’s a whole lot of information sharing and coordination between governments!

Since the case in Henan only involved Chinese nationals, none of whom worked for Siemens, should multinationals care about this? Absolutely. This is not a unique case, but it is instructive. It has become quite clear in the past few years that we are entering into a global phase of regulatory enforcement, brought about by globalization and trade.

This case involves corruption, but we could just as easily be talking about food, or pharmaceuticals, or electronic devices. Even regulations based on domestic laws flows across borders these days, forcing governments to work together and resulting in unprecedented information sharing.

Companies that do business in more than one jurisdiction cannot look narrowly at regulatory risk anymore, saying “This is a China problem” or “Our U.S. team will deal with this.” That was the past. These days, when a corruption matter (or any issue that involves international regulatory enforcement) arises, companies will have to take a look at each jurisdiction in which they are doing business.

All of this will no doubt result in higher regulatory and risk management costs, but government cooperation is on the rise and must be factored in to all compliance programs from now on.

Read more at China Hearsay. You can also follow me on Twitter and Facebook.

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GBP/USD Reverses Gains, EUR/GBP Bullish
June 30, 2011 at 9:46 AM
 

GBPUSD: Reverses Gains,  Set For 1.5911 Level

GBPUSD: The pair has failed to follow through higher on the back of its Wednesday gains and tumbled lower wiping out those gains early trading today.

Read the rest of the article GBP/USD Reverses Gains, EUR/GBP Bullish

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A Incredible Rare Look At Life In North Korea
June 30, 2011 at 9:46 AM
 

north korea

It's not often we can take a glimpse into daily life in North Korea. The new Fotopedia North Korea iPad app features beautiful images, by photographer Eric Lafforgue, of what daily life in North Korea is like. 

Fotopedia North Korea features 1,000's of Lafforgue's photos, and we have a preview here.

Take a glimpse into one of the most secretive countries in the world.







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If Stephen Colbert Get His Super PAC, He Will Make Ads Even More Offensive Than The Ones Currently Airing
June 30, 2011 at 9:44 AM
 

Keep your fingers crossed.

The FEC will rule today whether Stephen Colbert can have his own Super PAC.  If the answer is yes, be prepared for some fantastic Comerica spot that "are even less responsible" that the ones currently being aired by Turn Right USA.

 

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Basically, Deutsche Bank Just Wrote The Eulogy For The Euro
June 30, 2011 at 9:43 AM
 

euro 5

A note from Deutsche Bank's Peter Hooper almost reads like a eulogy for the eurozone.

It leads in with this quote, from former Bundesbank Chief Economist Otmar Issing: “There is no example in history of a lasting monetary union that was not linked to one State.”

That kind of says it all right there.

As for how the Eurozone dies:

The history of past real or quasi monetary union of sovereign states suggests that the build-up of severe fiscal imbalances in parts of the union and the monetisation of these deficits have been the key reasons for failure. Mindful of the past experience, the fathers of EMU wanted to shield the central bank from any pressures to monetise fiscal deficits and hold countries responsible for their financial behaviour.

....

With political union, in our view, very unlikely, the best option for a stable future of EMU would be a return to the basic principles of the Maastricht Treaty. Without political leadership from the top, this outcome is likely to be driven by grass-root events (e.g. a rebellion of the backbenchers in the Greek or Berlin parliament against their leaders or a potential bank run in Greece). Given the recent momentum in the political debate, we would give such an outcome over the coming 6-12 months the highest probability. Alternatively, if the political elites remain in control and enforce the continuing execution of unviable adjustment programmes, we see a significant risk of an eventual break- up of EMU.

So that's it: If leaders can take control and create political union, there's a chance. Otherwise, breakup.

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Basically, Deutsche Bank Just Wrote The Eulogy For The Euro
June 30, 2011 at 9:43 AM
 

euro 5

A note from Duetsche Bank's Peter Hooper almost reads like a eulogy for the eurozone.

It leads in with this quote, from former Bundesbank Chief Economist Otmar Issing: “There is no example in history of a lasting monetary union that was not linked to one State.”

That kind of says it all right there.

As for how the Eurozone dies:

The history of past real or quasi monetary union of sovereign states suggests that the build-up of severe fiscal imbalances in parts of the union and the monetisation of these deficits have been the key reasons for failure. Mindful of the past experience, the fathers of EMU wanted to shield the central bank from any pressures to monetise fiscal deficits and hold countries responsible for their financial behaviour.

....

With political union, in our view, very unlikely, the best option for a stable future of EMU would be a return to the basic principles of the Maastricht Treaty. Without political leadership from the top, this outcome is likely to be driven by grass-root events (e.g. a rebellion of the backbenchers in the Greek or Berlin parliament against their leaders or a potential bank run in Greece). Given the recent momentum in the political debate, we would give such an outcome over the coming 6-12 months the highest probability. Alternatively, if the political elites remain in control and enforce the continuing execution of unviable adjustment programmes, we see a significant risk of an eventual break- up of EMU.

So that's it: If leaders can take control and create political union, there's a chance. Otherwise, breakup.

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Germany's Banks Agree To Help Greece
June 30, 2011 at 9:40 AM
 

Beers

German banks have agreed to volunteer and support Greece by rolling over their Greek debt, according to Bloomberg.

Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble announced that a deal had been reached moments ago. It will see German banks join French banks in supporting Greece. The two countries' banking sectors own more Greek debt than any other countries.

Details on the deal are thus far limited, but Deutsche Bank Chief Josef Ackermann says the support will be "substantial."

This private sector involvement will be part of the announced second bailout for Greece, the details of which could come through as soon as this weekend, barring any sort of failure in the current Greek austerity vote.

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Twitter Tries To Woo Shell-Shocked Developers Back Into The Fold
June 30, 2011 at 9:39 AM
 

Twitter CEO Dick Costolo

Twitter is going to open a new site to share information with its shell-shocked developer community, Giga Om reports.

Twitter cracked down on its ecosystem in a big way, introducing its own clients, link-shortening service and photo-hosting service. But it needs developers to become a platform and broaden its usage beyond the things it can't do. 

The goal of the site will be to offer up as much information as possible to developers and partners, Twitter platform director Ryan Sarver told Giga Om. Anything will help. Just don't call it Twitter+.

Don't Miss: TwitPic Founder Runs Down The Street Naked, Gets Arrested, TwitPics It →

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5 Ways To Drive Downloads And Attract Loyal Users
June 30, 2011 at 9:34 AM
 

Recently, Yahoo! announced its App Search in an effort to address the app discoverability challenge. We understand why. Consumers have an insatiable appetite for downloading the hottest new apps that reside among the half a million crowding the app stores. As a mobile marketer, this spells huge promise and opportunity if you can overcome the needle in the haystack problem. Those 500,000 apps are competing with yours for users. How can you ensure that they will find and download yours?

The solution is in loyal user acquisition. Loyal users are those who take an action, such as an in-app purchase or registration. And they key to attracting loyal users is App store visibility. There is no amount of buzz, PR, one-off ad campaigns or sheer “wow” factors that can equal the power of a top ranking.

The challenges of app promotion are complex and can easily consume large chunks of your marketing budget. However, they don’t have to. Following are five of the strategies we’ve proven out for improving app store rankings and securing those critical loyal users (read about nine additional strategies in our e-book):

1. Work with as many traffic sources as possible

If you are working with only one traffic source type (e.g. a mobile ad network, real time bidding platform or incentive based program), or even just one of each type, it really is too small a universe to be successful. You are missing out on valuable opportunities to identify the best traffic sources for driving the largest numbers of loyal users, and to scale your business.

2. Focus on loyal users

None of the ad networks has a method for understanding how to deliver loyal users that can be directly tied back to your ROI. So you must take the initiative. To get loyal users we recommend the following:

  • Define the characteristics of your loyal user
  • Automate the tracking of these loyal user characteristics
  • Identify the traffic sources that generated these loyal users
  • Steer your ad spend toward these traffic sources
  • Track all of your users’ interactions with your app

3. Drive and track downloads from organic users

Organic users are those who actively seek and download your app without any marketing influence. They have a much higher lifetime value than ad-driven users. You should be actively targeting organic users because they are the most likely to become your loyal users.

4. Consider differentiated or alternative categories

Do you know which category and rank will generate the most loyal users for the lowest cost possible? Your app probably fits into a number of categories, and while your gut instinct may be to place it in the most popular categories, you may fare better in one that is differentiated or alternative that might enable a higher
ranking. For example, it might be better to rank fifth in a smaller category as opposed to 25th in Games.

5. Know which traffic sources drive loyal users

Based on your definition of a loyal user, you need to understand how many loyal users you are generating from each ad network and traffic source, and at what cost. Measure and recalibrate to get the mix right.

It’s true that finding the right mobile app marketing formula takes time and effort, but it doesn’t have to break the bank. In fact, you could even slash your user acquisition costs tenfold in the process. To learn more about the tips above and others, download the free e-book, Best Practices for Growing Your Mobile App Business.

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Startups Without Financial Projections are Doomed
June 30, 2011 at 9:30 AM
 

Most entrepreneurs tend to avoid this area of the business, and as a result are badly surprised by cost realities, and investor expectations. They seem to think that financial projections are simply invented numbers for investors, and not useful. In reality, it's like jumping in your car for a long hard drive with no destination in mind. Chances are, you won't enjoy success from the trip.

What is a business financial model, really? In most cases, it is merely a Microsoft Excel spread sheet loaded with your cost and revenue projections for your startup, starting now in time and extending at five years into the future. For more value, a few variables can be added, like product volume growth rate, and number of salesmen, for "what if" analyses.

Why? For you to make decisions and manage the business - because we are all mere mortals and can't possibly keep all these numbers and calculations in our head – to decide whether and when the business is going to be profitable given rational projections of costs and income (these assumptions are referred to as your business model). Secondarily, it will be required by potential investors to validate how much money you need to get started, and how much return they can expect on their investment.

When? The financial model should be running even before you incorporate the business and build prototype products (would you start driving your car on a long trip before you knew where you were going?). If you can't make that objective, then at least don't approach potential investors until your model is working – investors have little tolerance for startups with no financial plan.

How? Start with a "sample" business model, available in generic form or customized for specific industries, from many sources on the Internet. Another alternative is to download from my website a free sample model that I built for a specific startup, with elements suggested by Angel investors and venture capitalists, ready to be customized to your business.

If you are not computer literate in Microsoft Excel, your first task is to find someone who has the time and expertise to convert your base set of costs and revenues into projection formulas, cash flow summaries, and a profit and loss statement.

Do your own, if you can, because you know the numbers. In fact, this is the easy part. More challenging is 'defining' the business model (assembling all the real variables of your projected business, pricing assumptions, staffing requirements, marketing costs, sales costs, and revenue flows).

This business model can then be used for many purposes, such as risk and profit assessment, projecting the values of assumptions that are made based on existing market conditions, calculating the margins that are needed to avoid adverse situations, and various forms of sensitivity analysis. These are necessary to estimate capital investment requirements, plan capital allocation, and measure financial performance.

Creating financial projections allows you to see areas of strength and weakness in your proposed business model, enabling you to make critical changes that will allow your business to run more successfully.

While people start businesses for many reasons, making money is usually important. Even a non-profit can't afford to lose money. You won't know if you can meet these expectations until you build a financial model with reasonable financial projections.

It's a great learning experience, and you can do it yourself, but don't hesitate to ask for help from a professional if you need it. You will be amazed at how clear the relationship becomes between pricing, cost, and volume. When you lose money on every item, it's hard to make it up in volume.

Marty Zwilling

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What Conservatives Don't Want You To Know About Government's Role In The Economy
June 30, 2011 at 9:25 AM
 

Secret, Whisper, ShhhThis post originally appeared at New Deal 2.0.

If we don’t learn the lessons from the Great Depression, our infrastructure will crumble, the recovery will stagnate, and our economy will be left behind.

The current conventional wisdom for many in the U.S. is that the less government is involved with the economy the better. But this is precisely the moment in history when more government is needed. Without government intervention, the recovery will continue to stagnate, the economy as a whole will remain off balance, and we won’t be able to meet the challenges facing the country.

I have been proposing a different way of looking at an economy than the traditional, neoclassic one. In my view, each industry fits into a wider system, as say trees or deer or bears fit into a wider forest ecosystem. In the same way, goods manufacturing, machinery industries, service industries, infrastructure, and the myriad other parts of a functioning society — including the health and education systems — have to work properly in order for the economy as a whole to function, with manufacturing functioning as the central sector. All industries are co-evolving, dynamically growing, concentrated within discrete geographical regions. And it is the responsibility of government to help orchestrate this interaction, or else it can turn into an ugly riot.

But at the root of the neoclassical world view is the idea that the economic system is self-regulating, that is, if the economy is pushed off course by “external” forces, then it will become stable by itself — without government interference. And yet we know that economies are constantly growing and changing — that is, they are not stable — and they are often under threat of recession and depression. That is why governments always have to be part of the solution. They are needed in order to support economic growth, maintain the right structure of the economy, and intervene when the economy goes bad.

FDR’s presidency is the perfect example of this. When he became president, Herbert Hoover had just spent several years trying to reverse the Great Depression with market-based solutions, but FDR championed a set of governmental policies that turned the country around. To deal with unemployment, FDR established the Works Progress Administration, or WPA, which was not only designed to employ one fully able member of each household in which no one could find work, but also to build up the country’s physical infrastructure. Building infrastructure is what governments do best. In fact, one could say that civilization started when the first governments constructed the irrigation and drainage systems that enabled agriculture to flourish. The United States, like every successful country, has a long and rich history of infrastructure building, without which the country would have very likely stayed poor. From canals like the Erie Canal before the Civil War, to the railroads after, from the dams that even conservative Republicans like Calvin Coolidge initiated, to the WPA that built libraries, schools, airports, roads, and other structures in virtually every town, to the Interstate Highway System championed by a Republican president, the United States has kept itself at the forefront of the global economy by making the building of transportation, energy, communications, water, education, and other systems the foundation of prosperity.

Partly as a result of his interventions into the economy, FDR was able to lead the nation into World War II by fundamentally transforming the economy to produce military equipment. At its height, one third of the country’s GDP was devoted to the war effort, with millions fighting overseas. That’s five trillion dollars in today’s economy. In other words, even assuming the continuation of a one trillion dollar military budget in the face of no wars of necessity, the economy has four trillion dollars left over to remake itself while providing for a comfortable standard of living for its inhabitants.

Instead of learning this lesson of history, however, our current political class seems determined to follow Herbert Hoover, not FDR. Meanwhile, the long-term domestic problems we face are worse than what FDR confronted. In the 1930s, the US was by far the leading manufacturing power and the top producer of oil; now the manufacturing sector is sinking fast, and not only do we import almost two-thirds of the crude oil we process, the global supply of oil is becoming harder to produce and is shrinking. In addition, we desperately need to eliminate the use of fossil fuels and transform agriculture and forest management in order to avoid the worst of global warming. The path forward is clear: we need an electric transportation system based on high-speed rail for long-distance travel, electric rail for freight, transit and small electric cars for intra-city movement, wind and solar power for electricity generation, recycling on a serious and massive scale, a densification of urban areas, and a more labor-intensive, localized, organic agricultural system. And these could provide the market for a revived manufacturing sector.

Only the government can build all of these systems in the time needed to both save the economy and save the environment. Incentives can go part of the way, but not fast or far enough. Taxing carbon or trading rights to carbon won’t solve global warming or decrease the use of oil as quickly as we need them to; lowering taxes or reducing the deficit won’t bring the manufacturing sector back. Government-as-builder does not mean government-as-warrior or government-as-Big-Brother. It is possible to have a strong government that is peaceful, democratic, and not beholden to our economic royalists, as we currently are. But maintaining democracy is never easy; the political system is no more a self-regulating system than is the economy. At least we can have a clear vision of where we are heading.

History doesn’t care if the political conversation of the United States won’t allow for talk about large-scale government intervention into the economy. The path to economic and ecological collapse is paved with “realistic” intentions. If the conservatives can be audacious enough to threaten policies that will further destroy the middle class and poor for the sake of the superwealthy, why can’t progressives draw on a rich American history, from before FDR and after, to rebuild a once mighty nation and help the rest of the planet move toward a sustainable future?

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10 Ways Google+ Just Copied Facebook (GOOG)
June 30, 2011 at 9:24 AM
 

facebook google title iamge

Google just launched its long awaited social networking product, Google+, and it looks a whole lot like Facebook.

Google+ was announced in a blog post where Google's SVP of Engineering Vic Gundotra said, "In this basic, human way, online sharing is awkward. Even broken. And we aim to fix it."

So why would you make your product look exactly like on of your competitors?

We put together some side by sides of Facebook and Google+. See for yourself how uncannily alike the two products are.

A small box in the right corner of posts that lets you like them, report them as spam, etc.



The news feed itself looks almost exactly the same.



Google grabbed the nested comment structure, as well as "Like," "Comment," and "Share" underneath the images.



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The 15 Worst Housing Markets For The Next Five Years
June 30, 2011 at 9:24 AM
 

Miami, Florida

If you bought a home in Miami in 2005, we're sorry: over the following six years it depreciated in value by more than 54.3%.

And the rebound -- if there is a rebound -- won't come soon.

Between Q2 2011 and Q2 2016, Miami home prices will decline at an annualized rate of 0.7%, according to data provided by Fiserv Case Shiller.

Fiserv identified 15 housing markets that will appreciate at an annualized rate of less than 1.5% -- a pretty lousy investment. If you stay out of these markets, the national average is slightly better at 3.7%.

The worst place to invest: Miami, Florida

Cumulative growth from 2005 to 2011: -54.3%

Annualized growth from 2011 to 2016: -0.7%

Trough: Q3 2012

Data provided by Fiserv Case Shiller Indexes.



The second worst place to invest: Atlantic City, New Jersey

Cumulative growth from 2005 to 2011: -34.05%

Annualized growth from 2011 to 2016: 0.2%

Trough: Q3 2012

Data provided by Fiserv Case Shiller Indexes.



The third worst place to invest: Nassau County, New York

Cumulative growth from 2005 to 2011: -27.3%

Annualized growth from 2011 to 2016: 0.7%

Trough: Q4 2011

Data provided by Fiserv Case Shiller Indexes.



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JPMorgan Explains The Impact Of The Fed's New Rule On Visa And Mastercard (MA, V)
June 30, 2011 at 9:21 AM
 

Visa

Yesterday the Federal Reserve changed rules that cap how much banks charge retailers to process debit card purchases.

Banks will be able to charge as much as 21 cents for each debit card transaction starting October, and are expected to lose about 40% of the revenue from debit cards.

In a JP Morgan report analyst Tien-tsin Huang explains why the change in swipe fees is good for Visa and Mastercard:

  • The 21 cents cap on swipe fee has weakened the case for a reduction in network fees for card issuers which has hurt Visa and MasterCard shares for over a year.
  • The Fed has banned banks form routing debit card transactions through any one payments network. The new rules require at least one unaffiliated network on all debit cards. Issuers could satisfy this requirement by adding an independent PIN network which is great for Visa because of its dominant market share, but it could also mean higher share for Mastercard.
  • The interchange cap of 21 cents was higher than the 12 cents proposed by regulars last year, and makes room for an additional charge to cover fraud. Network fees earned by Visa and Mastercard are now part of a list of recoverable expenses. This would weaken the case for a dramatic reduction in card issuer network fees.
  • Visa will update its guidance on July 6 but FY11 guidance is not expected to be impacted by the rule. Investor uncertainty is easing and valuations are expected to go higher.

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Pot Plants Found At Green Party Offices In Germany
June 30, 2011 at 9:18 AM
 

cannabis

German police have discovered cannabis plants growing in the flower boxes of the Green Party office in Thuringia, reports The Local.

The police are investigating the Green party office for drug law violations, though the initial defense given was that the plants were grown for "producing hemp".

The Christian Democrats in the region have jumped on this as a chance to criticize the Greens.

Wolfgang Fielder, a Christian Democrat state member of parliament told the newspaper Thüringische Landeszeitung that any Green party member who participated in or knew about the cannabis-growing "must resign their high parliamentary office.”

When asked how the cannabis got to the Green party office, a party spokesman, Daniela Hoffman Weber claimed ignorance and said "that would interest us."

She added that, "no one will seriously believe that we’re making hemp here."

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The Woman Who Organized The Illegal Celebrity/Wall Street Poker Games Was Just Attacked By Thugs
June 30, 2011 at 9:16 AM
 

shadow-woman

Last week news broke that Tobey Maguire and other celebs were being sued by a group of hedge fund investors, who say Maguire and others won cash in an illegal poker ring, which belongs to them.

The woman who used to organize the games is called Molly Bloom, the sister of Olympic skier and Philadelphia Eagles footballer Jeremy Bloom.

"Described... as having "model looks and friends in high places," Bloom coordinated the sophisticated operation which led to A-List actors... gambling their fortunes," Radar Online reported.

In a sworn deposition, Bloom admitted to orchestrating the underground games and even said she hired women to come to the games and massage the players. She also named regular players in the illegal ring.

After news of the story broke, she has "gone into hiding, even deleting her Facebook profile," Radar Online said.

That's not surprising, considering the fact she was "forced to flee her Upper West Side apartment for the West Coast after two "thugs" roughed her up for fear she was blabbing to the feds," the New York Post reported.

Apparently Bloom had moved from LA to New York and hosted "games that drew Wall Street-types [like hedge fund manager Brad Ruderman, who allegedly lost his investors' fortunes to Tobey Maguire] and others whose income was less obvious" than her previous clientele. That is until "two Eastern European "thugs" tried to "get some money from her . . . They pushed her around a little bit" after getting up to the door of her pricey Upper West Side apartment," the Post said.

The reason that Bloom and her Hollywood clients are being sued by hedge fund investors, is becau ex-hedge fund manager Bradley Ruderman was convicted of running a $44 million Ponzi scheme back in 2009, and he used client money in these poker games.

Ruderman reportedly "lost $25 million of his investors’ money in twice-weekly poker games at the luxury Beverly Hills Hotel, the Four Seasons and the Viper Room on Sunset Boulevard," according to FINAlternatives.

Also being sued: leveraged buyouts billionaire Alex Gores; actor and director of 'The Notebook' Nick Cassavetes; Rick Salomon (of Paris Hilton sex tape fame); record label owner Cody Leibel; real estate developer and Las Vegas entrepreneur Andrew Sasson; among others.

The buy-in was $100,000. The games were "exclusive events, by invitation only, and that there was a regular roster of players consisting of wealthy celebrities, entrepreneurs, attorneys and businessmen," the lawsuit against Maguire said.

Don't miss: The 20 Biggest Poker Players On Wall Street >

New details on the celebrity Wall Street poker games >

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CHART OF THE DAY: Android Growth Stalls, Apple Gaining Steam With New Smartphone Buyers (AAPL, GOOG)
June 30, 2011 at 9:15 AM
 

Growth in purchases of Android smartphones in the U.S. has stalled this year, according to a new report from Nielsen.

Android still has the largest share of the smartphone market, but thanks to the Verizon iPhone, its share of new phone buyers has flatlined. Apple's share has picked up, moving from 10% of new smartphone purchases to 17% of new smartphone purchases this year.

This is an nice change of pace for Apple which had been getting crushed in the smartphone marketshare battle.

According to this chart, Apple is still going to be lagging in overall smartphone share. But, it's a good sign for Apple that more people are buying iPhones thanks to it being on Verizon.

U.S. Smartphone Market Share (June 2011)

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CHART OF THE DAY: Android Growth Stalls, Apple Gaining Steam (AAPL, GOOG)
June 30, 2011 at 9:15 AM
 

Android's growth in the U.S. has stalled this year, according to a new report from Nielsen which looks at which phones people are buying.

Android still has the largest share of the smartphone market, but thanks to the Verizon iPhone, its growth has flatlined. Apple's growth has picked up once again, moving from 10% to 17% of the market this year.

This is an nice change of pace for Apple which had been getting crushed in the smartphone marketshare battle.

U.S. Smartphone Market Share (June 2011)

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Forex: Euro Relief Rally To Taper Off, Sterling Searches For Support
June 30, 2011 at 9:15 AM
 


   
   
Skype releases Android video calling app
June 30, 2011 at 9:13 AM
 



Skype now offers a video calling feature for Android devices. The new feature is available from the Android Market or by visiting Skype.com/m from your phone's browser.

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Former NBC COO and AOL CEO Randy Falco has been promoted to president and CEO of Univision -- "The Board unanimously...
June 30, 2011 at 9:11 AM
 

Former NBC COO and AOL CEO Randy Falco has been promoted to president and CEO of Univision -- "The Board unanimously agreed that Randy’s track record and expertise make him the ideal executive to lead Univision’s future growth."

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Goldman Sachs On The Market's Recent Strength
June 30, 2011 at 9:10 AM
 

schwarzeneggermuscle tbi

From Goldman's Noah Weisberger, some commentary on the recent market strength:

The S&P 500 has rallied sharply this week... ...with improving growth views, oil price relief, easy financial conditions, and risk sentiment all supporting the market The recent growth rebound has had a decidedly domestic flavor... ...with consumer cyclicals driving performance. Rate relief has been important too. Although the evidence of a stabilizing US economy is not crystal clear.... ...the market has already priced in a good deal of weakness. So even wisps of improvement may help market trends extend higher.

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Kimbo Slice To Make Pro Boxing Debut
June 30, 2011 at 9:10 AM
 

Guess who's ready to start throwing fists again? Kimbo Slice is warming up the hands and will be returning to combat although this time he will have bigger padding on his fists of fury. Kevin Ferguson will be boxing!

The news broke today that Kimbo Slice will be making his official pro boxing debut in August. Slice's boxing opponent has not been signed as of press time. However, Kimbo Slice will fight a grueling four-round main-event on August 13 at the Buffalo Run Casino in the bright lights of Miami…Ohio.

Slice will be coming home so to speak. Slice's boxing debut will be promoted by his old promoter Gary Shaw. Shaw, who promoted Slice early on as an MMA fighter will join with Tony Holden Promotions to bring boxing fans this extravaganza.

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Amazon kills its Associates program in California so as not to pay sales tax. 
June 30, 2011 at 9:08 AM
 

Amazon kills its Associates program in California so as not to pay sales tax. 

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Randy Orton In Hot Water Over Controversial Radio Interview
June 30, 2011 at 9:07 AM
 

CM Punk isn't the only one shooting on WWE superstars this week. WWE world heavyweight champion Randy Orton had all guns blazing on a recent radio interview where he basically called Kelly Kelly a slut, called out The Rock, admitted to a drug overdose, and more.

You can look at this interview on 98 KUPD in Arizona in one of two ways. Some people will think that Randy Orton is a jerk for telling radio hosts that WWE Divas champion Kelly Kelly sleeps around. On the other hand, some will applaud Randy's candid answers and respect the champ for showing a little personality.

Highlights of the interview are posted on You Tube which I embedded in the blog here. The most noteworthy piece of the interview was what Orton said about Kelly Kelly. The hosts kind of pushed Orton here but he bit. The host jokes that he would be a method actor if he worked with her. Orton replies, "I could name a few method actors in WWE," Orton says. "Like, ten guys."

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Seven insights from the HomeAway IPO
June 30, 2011 at 9:04 AM
 

Vacation-rental company HomeAway went public on NASDAQ yesterday, and it was an impressive public market debut. Shares in the company surged 49 percent in the first day of trading, closing at $40.21. So, is this just another internet company taking advantage of a small float for a big exit? Or, is HomeAway the real deal? Let’s take a look at seven things you need to know about this hot IPO:

1. A big raise: HomeAway raked in $216 mn in capital yesterday, after selling its shares at the high end of its pre-IPO range.

2. Impressive valuation: when the closing bell clanged, HomeAway wound up with a valuation of $3.2 bn, fed by the 49 percent price spike throughout the day.

3. Another small float: the company only put up approximately 10 percent of its shares, the same amount LivingSocial plans to float. This follows the example set by LinkedIn and Pandora. The limited supply of shares left investors hungry, which helped drive up the price.

4. Great expectations: investors seem to have high hopes for HomeAway. The $3.2 bn valuation is 19X last year’s revenue. Compare that to Priceline at 8.1X and Expedia at 2.3X (with valuations of $25 bn and $7.8 bn, respectively).

5. Predictable isn’t boring: why is HomeAway’s valuation so generous? The CEO, Brian Sharples, believes it’s because of the company’s consistent growth and the fact that property owners and managers – rather than vacationers – pay to use the service.

6. Solid revenue growth: more than 90 percent of its $168 mn in revenue came from property owners and managers. Revenue increased $48 mn (40 percent) from 2009 to 2010. The company has been around since 2005.

7. Global reach: HomeAway has more than 560,000 property listings, representing more than 145 companies. It operates 31 websites.

Source: San Francisco Chronicle

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Five facts about a LivingSocial IPO
June 30, 2011 at 9:01 AM
 

Sources tell Reuters that LivingSocial could be the next tech company to file for an initial public offering. LinkedIn and Pandora have already gone public, and LivingSocial competitor Groupon has filed for its IPO with the SEC. Facebook is rumored to have plans to file in the fourth quarter of this year.

The second largest social deals site in the US, after Groupon, LivingSocial is poised to make a splash, especially if its financials look better than those of the market leader. More information will obviously be available when the filing occurs. Here’s what we know so far:

1. Sky-high valuation: LivingSocial’s valuation could reach as high as $15 bn.

2. Filling the coffers: according to sources, Reuters reports that LivingSocial is looking to raise $750 mn in an IPO.

3. Many, many served: LivingSocial has 39 million members, who use the site for discounts on ‘restaurant dining, lodging and other items’. The company’s revenue comes from the merchants that offer up the discounts.

4. Expected success: the social deals site anticipates $1 bn in revenue for this year.

5. Big exits: back in April, LightSpeed Venture Partners and Amazon were among the participants in a $400 mn round of financing that led to an implied value of $3 bn.

Source: Reuters

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ROUND 2: Greek Parliament Now Holding Second Vote On Austerity Measures
June 30, 2011 at 9:00 AM
 

Boxing Punch Knockout Fight

The latest: According to Dow Jones, the Greek opposition is backing 22 of the 49 austerity measures.

No word yet on the rest of the vote.

EARLIER: The Greek parliament is holding its second vote on austerity measures.

This one is about implementing austerity measures. The issue is whether or not the implementation program is changed in such a way that it jeopardizes the approval of EU/IMF officials.

If it's is passed as is right now, it's likely the EU/IMF will be pleased, but we won't know for sure until the those officials send the signal this weekend.

But if all goes to plan, bailout 2 could be in place by July 3.

We'll have more details on the vote as it they come in...

Don't miss: The 20 institutions most exposed to the Greek crisis >

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ROUND 2: Greek Parliament Now Holding Second Vote On Austerity Measures
June 30, 2011 at 9:00 AM
 

Boxing Punch Knockout Fight

Right now, the Greek parliament is holding its second vote on austerity measures.

This one is about implementing austerity measures. The issue is whether or not the implementation program is changed in such a way that it jeopardizes the approval of EU/IMF officials.

If it passes as it exists right now, we could see the process for bailout 2 kick off as soon as July 3.

We'll have more details on the vote as it they come in...

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Jayson Werth Was Not Free-Agent-Napped By Scott Boras
June 30, 2011 at 9:00 AM
 

Last week, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com wrote the following:

Scott Boras’ latest attempt to free-agent-nap another marquee player — in this case, as first reported by Fox’s Ken Rosenthal, Mets dynamo Jose Reyes — was nothing new, other agents say.

Now, technically, there is nothing illegal about it, as long as Boras reports all contact with other agents’ clients to the players’ association, as required by the new agent rules. But it serves as more evidence that it isn’t just happenstance when high-profile free agents (such as Rafael Soriano and Jayson Werth this past winter) abruptly switch to Boras on the verge of their free agency. True, it’s only business — but that doesn’t mean it’s a particularly pretty part of the business.

Interesting choice of words with “free-agent-nap.”  Further, it is interesting that Stark included Jayson Werth’s name amongst those who have been “free-agent-napped” by Boras, since Werth has stated, after Stark’s story was published, that he was never solicited by Boras.  In fact, Werth first reached out to Boras after his friends and former teammates told him good things about the agent.

Prior to signing with Boras, Werth was represented by Jeff Borris (try not to get confused by the similar pronunciation of last names) at Beverly Hills Sports Council.  Werth was “shopping” for a new agent and certainly did not use any coupons in his selection of Boras.  I expect that Boras took a fair commission on the fantastic 7-year, $126 million contract he negotiated for his client.

Jayson Werth Was Not Free-Agent-Napped By Scott Boras from Sports Agent Blog - Sports Agent News, Sports Business, Sports Law, Sports Contract Negotiations, NCAA Rules and Regulations.

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American Goalie Tries To Pull Foot Out Of His Mouth After Xenophobic Rant
June 30, 2011 at 8:59 AM
 

tim howard

U.S. national team goalie Tim Howard went on a profanity-laced tirade against CONCACAF after losing the Gold Cup final to Mexico last Saturday night.

The keeper said it was a “f---ing disgrace” that the majority of the post-game ceremony was conducted in Spanish.

But before you decry Howard’s twisted “this is America so speak English” logic, consider how he clarified the comments in the Liverpool Echo today (via ESPN):

"In any important international match with post-game ceremonies you would hope the tournament organisers would make sure the primary language of each participating team is used so the participants can understand what is being said.
"To fail to do this is, in my opinion, disrespectful to the players. When this occurs on your home soil, it is particularly insulting.
"We, as American players, were asked to participate in a post-game ceremony at a match in Los Angeles and we are standing there trying to show good sportsmanship and yet the ceremony is going on and we are just looking at one another struggling to understand a word.
"It was, to be honest, humiliating, and I firmly believe the tournament organisers should not have put us in that position."

So he was so angry because he felt left out?

Dude, they were just saying that Mexico won and you lost, what’s not to get?

Howard’s clarification is disingenuous. The nature of the original statement was xenophobic and naive. He could have owned up to that and apologized for getting caught up in the moment. But instead he played dumb and acted like he was just ticked off at not understanding what was being said at the ceremony.

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Dick Bove: Here's 9 Reasons To Buy Banks Right Now
June 30, 2011 at 8:59 AM
 

Dick Bove

Bove just got super-bullish on banks.

After getting pummeled all year, they finally spiked yesterday

Here's why he thinks you hsould buy.

  • Short-Term Rally Could Bring Prices Sharply Higher: a series of trigger events to move bank stocks up in the short run.

  • The Greeks voted for more austerity and the European banks figured out how to phony up their balance sheets so they would not have to write this debt down.
  • BAC is close to signing an agreement that will eliminate some of its mortgage woes.

  • Pending home sales in the existing home market ticked higher by 8% plus.

  • Credit Sights says American bank balance sheets are in good condition and that these banks will meet the Basel III requirements with little difficulty.

  • The FED delayed implantation of the Durbin Amendment until the 4Q and raised the debit card fee to be charged from $0.12 per transaction to $0.21.

  • Commodity prices turned higher suggesting that in this market at least thoughts of recession are fading.

  • The spread between high yield and high grade bonds had been is tightening. This is Bove's single best indicator of bank stock direction and it is ticking positive.

  • July is a good month for a summer rally.

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Photos Of Google CEO Larry Page Kiteboarding In Alaska (GOOG)
June 30, 2011 at 8:55 AM
 

kiteboarding

Google CEO Larry Page was busy kiteboarding in the cold waters of Alaska yesterday.

How do we know? Because he posted it to his Google+ account.

Just like many other Googlers, Page is using Google's new social network.

Page said of his Alaskan adventure, "Fun day kiteboarding in Alaska. Pretty cold and gusty."







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China Just Opened The World's Longest Sea Bridge
June 30, 2011 at 8:51 AM
 

 

The Qingdao Jiaozhou Bay Bridge in China's Shangdong province opened Thursday. 

According to the Telegraph, the bridge was built in four years at a cost of about $88 billion and will cut down the commute between Qingdao and Huangdao by between 20 and 30 minutes.

This is China's eighth entry to the list of world's longest bridges, including the longest: 102-mile Danyang-Kunshan rail bridge that runs over water and land.

China bridge

China bridge

China bridge

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This Piece Of Plastic Might Be The Last Battery Charger You Ever Buy
June 30, 2011 at 8:50 AM
 

battery charger

A company called Fenix developed the charger for use in Uganda and other other third world countries where electricity might not be as readily available.

For any device that has a removable lithium-ion battery, it solves a lot of charging problems.

It's a lot like a chip clip, in fact. Plug it into a USB power source on one end and clip it to the battery's contacts on the other end, and you're charging up.

That is the only downside, however -- you'll only be able to charge batteries that you can remove from a device.

Sorry, iPhone.

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CA's New Law: No Budget? No Paycheck!
June 30, 2011 at 8:47 AM
 

angry boss

California has just concluded its first test of a radical concept: if legislators can't manage to do one of the most basic tasks they are hired to do in a timely manner, then cut their pay.

No on-time budget? No paycheck. Period. And while there's not enough data to draw any hard-and-fast conclusions, the idea seemed to work exactly as it was designed: this time around, the politicians were very personally motivated to do their job.

Without getting too far into the weeds of the California budget process, here's what just happened. The California legislature just passed a budget, two days before last year's budget expired. This is not exactly unprecedented, but it certainly is a rarity -- in most recent years, the budget hasn't met this milestone. Of course, the milestone it was supposed to hit was missed (or not, depending on whom you ask). By law, the legislators were supposed to have put something on Governor Jerry Brown's desk on June 15. There was an attempt to meet this deadline -- in a "kind of" sort of manner -- which was directly attributable to the fact that lawmakers were about to stop being paid.

In the last election cycle, a citizens' referendum was placed on the ballot to cut the legislators' pay if they didn't pass a budget through both houses of the state congress, and put it on the governor's desk by June 15. It passed overwhelmingly. The current budget cycle was the first test of the new law.

Complicating matters -- at least when it comes to drawing hard conclusions -- was the fact that California voters also passed another landmark change in the way budgets are approved in the state. A separate proposition passed which changed the rules in a big way for budget bills in the legislature. Instead of the insanely-high requirement that all budget bills pass with a two-thirds majority in both houses, California wisely voted to use the standard most other states use -- a simple majority. The only catch was the legislature still needed to hit the two-thirds threshold if they wanted to raise taxes.

The importance of the majority rule cannot be overstated, because with the two-thirds requirement, a few Republicans always had to vote against their party in order to pass a Democratic budget. Now -- as long as taxes are not raised -- Democrats can pass budgets on their own, with no Republican votes necessary. This also was an enormous factor in what just happened in Sacramento, and is the prime reason why it is impossible to say that freezing legislators' pay was the main motivating factor.

On June 15, the legislature did pass a budget. They thought they had discovered a loophole in the pay-cutting law. The law, after all, didn't say that the governor had to sign whatever they passed -- as long as they put something on his desk that had made it through both houses, the lawmakers thought they'd continue to get paid. So they hustled through a budget which was patently unacceptable on its face -- a budget they knew would never make it into law. By doing so, they were taunting Governor Brown by saying, in essence: "There -- we passed a 'budget' you'll never sign, now where's my paycheck?"

The Democratic legislators were positive they'd wiggled out of any possible pay cuts. Brown vetoed the budget -- the first time that's ever happened in the state -- and the budget squabbles continued. But then the state controller (also a Democrat) ruled that the budget the Democratic legislators had passed was not "balanced," and therefore didn't qualify under the pay-cutting law. Since Controller John Chiang was the guy who signed the paychecks, he had the power to stop them. Which he did.

And for the next twelve days, California legislators worked for free. They each lost an average of $4,830 in that period. Some of them (Democrats and Republicans) even had the gall to whine about not being paid in public. This was met with precisely zero sympathy from the public.

Yesterday, they passed a budget. It did not rely on gimmicks or budgetary tricks -- another first in modern California budgets -- and it gave Brown many of the things he had been fighting for over the past six months or so. And the legislators cannot award themselves the back pay they missed -- that's one of the beautiful things about the new law.

Once again, the fact that no Republican votes were necessary in either house of the state congress has to be stressed, when measuring how fast the budget was passed after the deadline. Picking up those few Republican votes has, in the past, been one of the main reasons why deals don't get cut earlier.

But you've got to wonder how much motivation not getting paid provided as well. This is only the state legislature, after all -- not everyone who gets elected to the California Assembly or Senate is a millionaire (from either party).

The obvious question to ask, at this point, is whether this would be a good idea on the national level or not. I've always been a strong proponent of the concept -- if United States Congressmen can't do one of the basic jobs we hire them to perform, then why should we pay them? But every time I bring it up, I am reminded (in the comments section) that doing so may fall afoul of the Constitution, which has some explicit things to say about how Congress gets paid.

Even if that is an obstacle, though, it certainly wouldn't preclude other states from passing similar laws about their own state legislatures. If the idea started sweeping across the country (especially in states where citizens' referenda are possible), then it could spark a national debate on the issue. It seems a prime issue to be grandstanded as a possible constitutional amendment, at least to me personally. The message is decidedly populist, and either party could claim the mantle if they chose to do so. After all, it's a simple (and non-partisan) message: "Don't do your job -- don't get paid!"

 

Chris Weigant blogs at:
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Hedge Fund Manager David Tepper Denies Keeping $100 Million In His Savings Account
June 30, 2011 at 8:45 AM
 

David Tepper Lottery

Yesterday Dealbreaker published a photo of an ATM receipt tossed away in East Hampton, which showed  a $99,864,731 balance, after a $400 cash withdrawal.

Later in the day, the mystery owner of the errant receipt was revealed to be none other than hedge fund king, David Tepper.

While Tepper does own an amazing piece of land in the Hamptons, we were a little bit skeptical.

Turns out our skepticism was justified: the New York Post contacted Tepper, who laughed and said he's too sophisticated a money man to leave so much cash in a low-yielding account.

He "wasn't in the Hamptons in June at all."

Also, he said, "I would never do something as irresponsible as leaving $100 million in a savings account," he told the Post.

Dont miss: HOUSE OF THE DAY: David Tepper Is Tearing Down His $44 Million Hamptons Home And Building A Bigger One >

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Why Rosie-Huntington Whiteley Can Blow Off Lingerie Shoots Come Monday
June 30, 2011 at 8:42 AM
 

rosie

Good news for Rosie Huntington-Whiteley: no matter what the reviews of her acting say, she's about to be part of the box office record book.

And she can officially stop booking catalog shoots.

"Transformers: Dark of the Moon" is expected to smash the North American opening-day box office record for 2011, analysts expect.

It made $8 million in midnight screenings last night -- so it's got another $26.8 million to go to catch the fourth "Pirates of the Carribbean," which pulled in $34.8 million in its May opening weekend.

Meanwhile, a movie that's been out for more than a month is about to rewrite two big pieces of history.

By next Wednesday, analysts expect, the Kristen Wiig comedy "Bridesmaids" will have surpassed "Knocked Up" as filmmaker Judd Apatow's highest theatrical gross ever.

And by the end of this weekend, it should replace "Sex and the City" as the most successful R-rated female comedy of all time.

Want to know what other summer blockbusters will rock the box office? Just follow the million-dollar rumor mill >>

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Mark Halperin Called President Obama A 'Dick' On Live TV This Morning
June 30, 2011 at 8:42 AM
 

mark halperin

Apparently under the impression that Morning Joe was on a 7 second delay this morning Time reporter and MJ regular Mark Halperin summed up his impression of President Obama's press conference yesterday: "I thought he was a dick yesterday."

Realizing it had actually gone to air, he quickly apologized: "This is not a proforma apology, it's an absolute apology, heartfelt to the President."

And then at the top of the 8 o'clock hour the entire Morning Joe team spent 5 more minutes apologizing for the gaffe, saying it's never appropriate to call the President a "dick."  Indeed.

Of course, by that time it had already been posted on Drudge.

The full exchange below courtesy of Mediaite and video below that.  It will be interesting to see how much blowback Halperin gets for what was clearly not a off-the-cuff, hot mic situation.

Joe Scarborough: Mark Halperin, What was the president’s strategy? We are coming up on a deadline and the president decided to please his base, push back against the Republicans.I guess the question is, we know a deal has to be done. Is this showmanship? A lot of times you go up there and both sides and they act tough so their base will be appeased, then they quietly work the deal behind the scenes.

Mark Halperin: Are we on the seven second delay?

Mika Brzezinski: Lordy.

Halperin: I wanted to characterize how the president behaved.

Scarborough: We have it. We can use it. Go for it. Let’s see what happens.

Brzezinski: We’re behind you, you fall down and we catch you.

Halperin: I thought he was a dick yesterday.

Scarborough: Delay that. delay that. what are you doing? i can’t believe — Iwas joking. Don’t do that. Did we delay that?

Halperin: I said it. I hope it worked.

Scarborough: My mom is watching! We’ll know whether it worked or not.

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U.S. futures maintain gains after jobs data; Dow up 0.25%
June 30, 2011 at 8:41 AM
 

Forex Pros – pros &ndash; U.S. stock futures pointed to a modestly higher open on Thursday, as Greece&rsquo;s parliament prepared to vote on legislation to implement the EUR28.4 billion, five-year austerity package approved in Wednesday&rsquo;s vote.<br /><br />Dow Jones Industrial Average futures pointed to a gain of 0.25%, the S&amp;P 500 futures advanced 0.27%, while Nasdaq 100 futures indicated a 0.35% increase.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />Stock futures held on to gains after official data showed that first time jobless claims declined by 1K to 428K last week. Analysts expected a decline to 420K.<br /><br />Greek lawmakers were due to vote later in the day on the implementation of different parts of the harsh austerity package needed to secure a EUR12 billion tranche of bailout funds from the European Union and International Monetary Fund in order to avoid a sovereign debt default.<br /><br />Meanwhile, U.S.-listed shares of Lloyd&rsquo;s Banking Group rallied 7.8% in pre-market trade after announcing that it would cut 15,000 jobs and withdraw operations from more than 15 of its overseas units in order to save USD2.4 billion. <br />&nbsp; <br />Shares in online auction website eBay jumped 3.7% after both Citigroup and Bank of America upgraded the stock to &lsquo;buy&rsquo;. Citigroup raised its target price on the stock by 21% to USD38.<br /><br />On the downside, shares in Callaway Golf tumbled 6.1% after the company projected a loss of USD55 million in the second quarter. <br /><br />Meanwhile, shares in health-care provider Eli Lilly were in focus after its chief executive said the company planned to boost spending on research-and-development, even though earnings were expected to decline over the next three years.&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />Other stocks in focus included, private education provider Apollo Group as well as restaurant operator Darden Restaurants, which were both scheduled to release earnings reports later in the day.<br /><br />Across the Atlantic, European stock markets edged higher amid optimism over Greece. The EURO STOXX 50 gained 0.3%, France&rsquo;s CAC 40 added 0.25%, Germany's DAX eased up 0.1%, while Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.55%.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />During the Asian trading session, regional indices were broadly higher. Japan&rsquo;s Nikkei 225 index edged 0.2% higher, Honk Kong&rsquo;s Hang Seng Index advanced 1.5%, while Australia&rsquo;s ASX/200 Index closed 1.7% higher.&nbsp; <br /><br />Later in the day, the U.S. was release data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region, while the Federal Reserve was to end its USD600 billion bond-buying program, known as QE2. <br /><br />


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Sarkozy Attacked As He Tries To Schmooze With The French Public
June 30, 2011 at 8:38 AM
 

Nicolas Sarkozy has been attacked by a man in Brax, France today, the AP reports.

Sarkozy had been shaking hands with the crowd in Southern France when a man in the crowd grabbed him by his suit.

The French President was almost knocked to the floor by the man, who appeared to be attempting to pull him over the security barrier. The assailant was tackled by security officers and detained.

French television showed the attack. Reuters describes the French President as looking "visibly shaken".

Check the video of the attack below:

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sarkozy-attacked-as-he-tries-to-schmooze-with-the-french-public.jpg (JPEG Image)
   
   
Canada's Economy Stalls – USD/CAD Stops Falling
June 30, 2011 at 8:34 AM
 

The Canadian economy started Q2 with no change. This was slightly better than a drop of 0.1% that was expected, but fails to cheer the loonie, as no growth isn’t such good news. USD/CAD, which was falling prior to the release, is now back up.

Canada's largest trading partner, the United States, isn't doing too well either. Once again, the weekly jobless claims disappointed and remained at a high level of 428K. This is a very minor drop of 1000 claims. A drop to 419K was expected. This is also weighing on the Canadian dollar.

Read the rest of the article Canada’s Economy Stalls – USD/CAD Stops Falling

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