2011年6月30日 星期四

6/30 Business Insider

     
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This Two-Minute Video Shows You Exactly How Slimy Reality TV Is Behind The Scenes
June 29, 2011 at 10:01 AM
 

marriage ref

Once upon a time, Howie and Christine Kohlenberg of New York decided to go on Jerry Seinfeld's (somewhat awful) show "The Marriage Ref," which purports to settle real couples' arguments.

What followed, for the Kohlenbergs, was an accelerated version of the reality TV gauntlet that's chewed up and spit out everyone from Kate Gosselin to Hulk Hogan's family.

Observe:

Step one: the Kohlenbergs cooked up their marriage problems so that they could get on the show for publicity.

Step two: Producers helped them come up with a realistic narrative.

Step three: Producers had them all "souped up" and convinced that "the next day, we'd be stars."

Step four: Mrs. Kohlenberg fell in love with the camera.

Step five: She got plastic surgery.

Step six: She left Frank -- and their young son -- and ran off to Hollywood, where she's currently "modeling" and starring in an "indie film." (The quotation marks are extremely important in that sentence.)

Step seven: Frank is back on TV, whining to "Good Morning America" that Seinfeld ruined his marriage -- and, of course, hyping his Midtown Manhattan spa.

If you don't already feel like you need a shower, watch the video below for the full effect.

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JEFF RUBIN: The IEA Wouldn't Deplete Oil Reserves If It Weren't Counting On Another Global Recession
June 29, 2011 at 10:01 AM
 

jeff rubin

Oil guru Jeff Rubin analyzes timing of the IEA's oil release in his latest column at Globe & Mail.

First this is too late to be a reaction to Libya.

Second it is meant to juice the U.S. economy before the next election.

Third the IEA wouldn't deplete oil reserves if global consumption were rising. Rather the organization may be planning on a sharp drop in demand:

If inventories aren’t going to be depleted, tapping reserves today means restocking them tomorrow. When exactly does the IEA expect to take back into inventory to rebuild the 60 million barrels that they are now adding to the market? What’s going to change in the world demand-supply balance that will allow inventories be rebuilt without stoking the price pressures that tapping reserves are supposed to relieve.

The only plausible time for restocking to happen is during the onset of another oil -induced global recession, which, of course, the IEA may think will occur sooner than most of us yet suspect.

More at Globe & Mail >

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Five ETFs To Watch If Meredith Whitney Is Right
June 29, 2011 at 10:00 AM
 

According to the ancient Mayan calendar, the world will end in December 2012. If banking analyst Meredith Whitney is right, the beginning of the end might be around the corner. Whitney, who rose to prominence after a pessimistic report on Citigroup issued in late 2007 later proved to be painfully accurate, has been zeroed in on the municipal bond sector for some time now as the next market to enter into a freefall. She first turned heads last year when predicting that between 50 and 100 local governments could default on obligations worth hundreds of billions of dollars–a collapse that would almost certainly be felt throughout global financial markets.

That breakdown in muni bond markets so far hasn’t materialized; default rates have been in line with historical averages, and investors who held on to these securities have been rewarded with relatively strong performances. But Whitney hasn’t backed down from her predictions, and in fact believes that coming weeks may see critical developments in muni bond markets. She’s targeted July 1 as an important date in this ongoing saga; that’s when new state budgets take effect, which may result in reduced aid to localities that have relied on outside aid up until this point to make good on obligations. If that source of liquidity dries up, it could start a string of muni defaults that will accelerate throughout the remainder of the year. "This is the sad reality of where we are," Whitney said during an interview on CNBC. “It will sting the sharpest when the states at the beginning of July cut aid off to municipalities." [also see Look Out Below! Muni Bond ETFs In Freefall]

It should be noted that not everyone is on the same page as Whitney. According to a recent research note from analysts at RBC Capital Markets, state employment levels are at their lowest levels since 1999. That seemingly indicates that governments are slashing payrolls in an effort to reel in costs, giving hope that self-imposed austerity measures will be enough to steer clear of a wave of defaults. S&P’s VP of Fixed Income also believes that Whitney’s predictions are a bit extreme, noting that actual default stats so far don’t support her bearish outlook on the segment.

Muni ETFs In Focus

With outlooks sharply divided on the short-term outlook for muni bonds, there are a number of ETFs that have seen increased activity and offer ways to access various segments of this fixed income market. Those who believe Whitney’s arguments hold some water may see attractive short-selling opportunities in some of these names, while those who believe her bearishness is overdone might see attractive entry points in beaten down securities that will eventually recover once the public’s anxiety eases [for more ETF ideas, sign up for the free ETFdb newsletter]:

iShares S&P National AMT-Free Muni Bond Fund (MUB)

This ETF is the most popular option for investors seeking broad-based exposure to municipal bonds; MUB includes more than 1,300 individual securities from a variety of different issuers. Transportation-related muni bonds account for the biggest slice of holdings (23%), with utilities (21%) and tax revenue bonds (14%) also receiving significant weight in this portfolio.

MUB currently has a distribution yield of about 3.5%, which works out to a tax equivalent yield of almost 5.4% assuming a 35% tax bracket.

PowerShares Build America Bond Fund (BAB)

BAB is one of several Build America Bond ETFs, focusing on a segment of the fixed income market that popped up as a result of short-lived legislation aimed at providing liquidity to cash-strapped governments. Unlike traditional munis, Build America Bonds don’t offer tax-free coupon payments. Instead, the interest obligations are subsidized by the federal government, allowing state and local governments to issue debt at relatively attractive rates.

BAB recently had a distribution yield of about 5.7% and an effective duration of about 11.3 years.

Market Vectors High Yield Bond Municipal Bond Fund (HYD)

This ETF focuses on the segment of the muni bond market that exhibits the greatest risk of default, but also offers very attractive current return potential. HYD is linked to an index that has a 75% weight in non-investment grade muni bond debt and a 25% weight in Baa/BBB rated investment grade debt. High yield muni debt may feature a risk/return profile that is very different from other funds in the National Munis ETFdb Category; these securities are often issued by non-profit organizations (such as hospitals) or corporate issuers (such as airlines or auto companies) in conjunction with public authorities. About 22% of HYD’s portfolio is debt issued by health companies and hospitals, with industrial development bonds (17%), special tax bonds (13%), and tobacco bonds (11%) also included.

In exchange for taking on additional risk, investors in HYD get the potential for some handsome yields; the 30-day SEC yield on this fund is currently hovering around 6%, which translates into an effective pre-tax yield of more than 9% for those in the top 35% bracket. State Street also offers the SPDR Nuveen S&P High Yield Municipal Bond ETF (HYMB), which has a yield profile similar to HYD [Looking For Juicy Yields? Try Muni Bond ETFs].

S&P New York AMT-Free Municipal Bond Fund (NYF)

This ETF offers exposure specifically to debt issued by New York municipalities, giving investors looking to fine tune muni bond exposure access to one of the largest segments of the market. NYF has about 175 individual holdings, with the largest allocations going to transportation bonds (25%), tax revenue bonds (21%), and utility bonds (17%). This fund has a distribution yield comparable to MUB, reflecting the relative riskiness of New York issuers relative to the broader muni bond market [see all New York Muni Bond ETFs].

S&P California AMT-Free Municipal Bond Fund (CMF)

This ETF offers targeted exposure to another segment of the muni bond market; CMF holds almost 250 municipal debt issues from California municipalities. California has been facing a massive deficit for years, and has generally been believed to be one of the least stable states from a fiscal perspective. So it probably isn’t surprising that CMF offers slightly more in the way of yield than NYF or MUB; the distribution yield on this fund is about 3.7%, which works out to a tax-equivalent of 6.3% [see all California Muni Bond ETFs].

Disclosure: No positions at time of writing.

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Ozzie Guillen To Bartman: "It's Not Your Fault, The Cubs Sucked"
June 29, 2011 at 9:59 AM
 

Ozzie Guillen has some interesting things to say about the Steve Bartman and the 2003 Cubs.

In an interview with something called GameSlam.com, the White Sox skipper set the record straight about what really happened at Wrigley that night.

Here’s the video (via SI.com):

As usual, Ozzie is the voice of reason here. The world is slowly realizing that Bartman was unfairly scapegoated. And prominent baseball people like Guillen coming out to correct history can only help.

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The Screaming Fundamentals For Owning Gold And Silver
June 29, 2011 at 9:58 AM
 

This report lays out an investment thesis for gold and one for silver.  Various factors lead me to conclude that gold is one investment that you can park for the next ten or twenty years, confident that it will perform well. My timing and logic for both entering and finally exiting gold (and silver) as investments are laid out in the full report.

The punchline is this: Gold and silver are not (yet) in bubble territory, and large gains remain, especially if monetary, fiscal, and fundamental supply-and-demand trends remain in play.

Introduction

In 2001, as the painful end of the long stock bull market finally seeped into my consciousness, I began to grow quite concerned about my traditional stock and bond holdings. Other than a house with 27 years left on a 30 year mortgage, these holdings represented 100% of my investing portfolio. So I dug into the economic data to see what I could discover. What I found shocked me. It's all in the Crash Course in both video and book form, so I won't go into that data here.

By 2002, I had investigated enough about our monetary, economic, and political systems that I decided that holding gold and silver would be a very good idea, poured 50% of my liquid net worth into precious metals, and sat back and watched.

Since then, my appreciation for and understanding of the role of gold as a monetary asset and silver as an indispensible industrial metal have deepened considerably.

Investing in gold and silver is still a good idea. Here's why.

Why own gold and silver?

The reasons to hold gold and silver, and I mean physical gold and silver, are pretty straightforward. So let’s begin with the primary reasons to own gold.

 

  1. To protect against monetary recklessness
  2. As insulation against fiscal foolishness
  3. As insurance against the possibility of a major calamity in the banking/financial system
  4. For the embedded 'option value' that will pay out if and when gold is remonetized

By ‘monetary recklessness,’ I mean the creation of money out of thin air and the application of more liquidity than the productive economy actually needs. The central banks of the world have been doing this for decades, not just since the onset of the great financial crisis. In gold terms, the supply of above-ground gold is growing at roughly 3% per year, while money supply has been growing at nearly three times that yearly rate since 1980.

Now this is admittedly an unfair view, because the economy has been growing, too, but money and credit growth have handily outpaced even the upwardly distorted GDP measurements by a wide margin.  As the economy stagnates under this too-large debt load while the credit system continues to operate as if perpetual expansion were possible, look for all the resulting extra dollars to show up in prices of goods and services.    

Real interest rates are deeply negative (meaning that the rate of inflation is higher than Treasury bond yields). This is a forced, manipulated outcome courtesy of central banks that are buying bonds with thin-air money. Historically, periods of negative real interest rates are nearly always associated with outsized returns for commodities, especially precious metals. If and when real interest rates turn positive, I will reconsider my holdings in gold and silver, but not until then. That is as close to an absolute requirement as I have in this business.

Monetary policies across the developed world remain as accommodating as they’ve ever been. Even Greenspan's 1% blow-out special in 2003 was not as steeply negative in real terms as what Bernanke has recently engineered. But it is the highly aggressive and ‘alternative’ use of the Federal Reserve balance sheet to prop up insolvent banks and to sop up extra Treasury debt that really has me worried. There seems to be no way to end these ever-expanding programs, and they seem to have become a permanent feature of the economic and financial landscape.  In Europe, the equivalent would be the sovereign debt now found on the European Central Bank (ECB) balance sheet.  

Federal deficits are seemingly out of control and are now stuck in the -$1.5 trillion range. Massive deficit spending has always been inflationary, and inflation is usually gold/silver friendly. Although not always, mind you, as the correlation is not strong, especially during mild inflation (less than 5%). Note, for example, that gold fell from its high in 1980 all the way to its low in 1998, an 18 year period with plenty of mild inflation along the way. Sooner or later I expect extraordinary budget deficits to translate into extraordinary inflation.

Reason #3, insurance against a major calamity in the banking system, is an important part of my rationale for holding gold. I’m not referring to “paper gold” either, which includes the various tradable vehicles (like the "GLD" ETF) that you can buy like stocks through your broker. I’m talking about physical gold and silver because of their unusual ability to sit outside of the banking/monetary system and act as monetary assets.

Literally everything else financial, including your paper US money, is simultaneously somebody else’s liability, but gold and silver are not. They are simply, boringly, just assets. This is a highly desirable characteristic that is not easily replicated.

Should the banking system suffer a systemic breakdown, to which I ascribe a reasonably high probability of greater than 1-in-4 over the next 5 years, I expect banks to close for some period of time. Whether it's 2 weeks or 6 months is unimportant; no matter the length of time, I'd prefer to be holding gold than bank deposits.

During a banking holiday, your money will be frozen and left just sitting there, even as everything priced in money (especially imported items) rocket up in price. By the time your money is again available to you, you may find that a large portion of it has been looted by the effects of a collapsing currency. How do you avoid this? Easy; keep some ‘money’ out of the system to spend during an emergency. I always advocate three months of living expenses in cash, but you owe it to yourself to have gold and silver in your possession as well.

The final reason for holding gold, because it may be remonetized, is actually a very big draw for me. While the probability of this coming to pass may be low, the rewards would be very high.

Here are some numbers:  The total amount of 'official gold,' or that held by central banks around the world, is 30,684 tonnes, or 987 million troy ounces (MOz). In 2008 the total amount of money stock in the world was roughly $60 trillion.

If the world wanted 100% gold backing of all existing money, then the implied price for an ounce of gold is ($60T/987MOz) = $60,790 per troy ounce.

Clearly that's a silly number (or is it?), but even a 10% partial backing of money yields $6,000 per ounce. The point here is not to bandy about outlandish numbers, but merely to point out that unless a great deal of the world's money stock is destroyed somehow, or a lot more official gold is bought from the market and placed into official hands, backing even a fraction of the world's money supply by gold will result in a far higher number than today's ~$1,500/Oz.

The Difference Between Silver and Gold

Often people ask me if I hold goldandsilver as if it were one word. I do own both, but for almost entirely different reasons. Gold, to me, is a monetary substance. It has money-like qualities and it has been used as money by diverse cultures throughout history. I expect that to continue.

There is a chance, growing by the week, that gold will be remonetized on the international stage due to a failure of the current all-fiat regime. If or when the fiat regime fails, there will have to be some form of replacement, and the only one that we know works for sure is a gold standard. Therefore, a renewed gold standard has the best chance of being the ‘new’ system selected during the next bout of difficulties.

Silver is an industrial metal with a host of enviable and irreplaceable attributes. It is the most conductive metal known, and therefore it is widely used in the electronics industry. It is used to plate critical bearings in jet engines and as an antimicrobial additive to everything from wall paints to clothing fibers. In nearly all of these uses, plus a thousand others, it is used in such vanishingly small quantities that it is hardly worth recovering at the end of the product lifecycle -- and often isn’t.

Because of this dispersion effect, above-ground silver is actually at something of a historical low point. When silver was used primarily for monetary and ornamentation purposes, the amount of above-ground, refined silver grew with every passing year. After industrial uses cropped up, that trend reversed, and today there are perhaps 1 billion ounces above ground, when in 1980 there were roughly 4 billion ounces.  

Because of this consumption dynamic,  it's entirely possible that over the next twenty years not one single net new ounce of above ground silver will be added to inventories, while in contrast, a few billion ounces of gold will be added.

I hold gold as a monetary metal. I own silver because of its residual monetary qualities, but more importantly because I believe it will continue to be in demand for industrial uses for a very long time, and it will become a scarce and rare item.

Scarcity

If we cast our minds forward ten years and think about a world with oil costing 2x to maybe 8x more than today, we have to ask how many of our currently-operating gold and silver mines, or the base metal mines from which gold and silver are by-products, will still be in operation, and how many will close because their energy costs will have exceeded their marginal economic benefits.

After just 100 years of modern, machine-powered mining, nearly all of the good ores are gone. By the time you are reading stories like this next one, you should be thinking, 'Why are they going to all that trouble unless that's the best option left?'

South African Miners Dig Deeper to Extend Gold Veins' Life Spans

Feb 17, 2011

JOHANNESBURG—With few new gold strikes around the world that can be turned into profitable mines, South Africa's gold miners are planning to dig deeper than ever before to get access to rich veins.

The plans raise questions about how to safely and profitably mine several miles below the surface. Success would mean overcoming problems such as possible rock falls, flooding and ventilation challenges and designing technology to overcome the threats.

Mark Cutifani, chief executive officer of AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., has a picture in his office of himself at one of the deepest points in Africa, roughly 4,000 meters, or 13,200 feet, down in the company's Mponeng mine south of Johannesburg. Mr. Cutifani sees no reason why Mponeng, already the deepest mining complex in the world, shouldn't in time operate an additional 3,000-plus feet deeper.

"The most critical challenges for all of us in South Africa are depths and depletion of reserves," Mr. Cutifani said in an interview.

The above article is just a different version of the story that led to the Deepwater Horizon incident.  By the time exceptional engineering challenges are being pondered to scrape a little deeper, it tells the alert observer everything they need to know about where we are in the depletion cycle.  We are closer to the end than the beginning.

We are at the point in history where we can easily look forward and make the case for declining per capita production of numerous important elements just on the basis of constantly falling ore purities and gold and silver fit into that category rather handily. Depletion of reserves is a very real dynamic and it is not one that future generations will have to worry about; it is one with which people alive today will have to come to terms.

The issue of Peak Oil only exacerbates the reserve depletion dynamic by adding steadily rising energy input costs to mix. Should oil get to the point of actual scarcity where we have to ration by something other than price, then we must ask where operating marginal mines fits into the priority list. Not very high would be my guess.

Supply and Demand - Gold

Not surprisingly, the high prices for gold and silver have stimulated quite a bit of exploration and new mine production. With over decade of steadily rising prices, there has been ample time to bring on new production. Which leads to a real surprise: in the case of gold, relatively little incremental mine production has occurred.

The analytical firm Standard Chartered has calculated  a rather subdued 3.6% gold production growth over the next five years:

Most market commentary on gold centres on the direction of US dollar movements or inflation/deflation issues – we go beyond this to examine future mine supply, which we regard as an equally important driver. In our study of 375 global gold mines and projects, we note that after 10 years of a bull market, the gold mining industry has done little to bring on new supply. Our base-case scenario puts gold production growth at only 3.6% CAGR over the next five years.

(Source - Standard Chartered)

Of course none of this is actually surprising to anyone who understands where we are in the depletion cycle but it's probably quite a shock to many an economist. The quoted report goes on to calculate that existing projects just coming on-line need an average gold price of $1,400 to justify the capital costs while greenfield, or brand-new, projects require a gold price of $2,000 an ounce.

This enormous increase in required gold prices to justify the investment is precisely the same dynamic that we are seeing with every other depleting resource: energy costs run smack-dab into declining ore yields to produce an exponential increase in operating costs. And it's not as simple as the fuel that goes into the CaterpillarD-9s; it's the embodied energy in the steel and all the other energy-intensive mining components all along the entire supply chain.

Just as is the case with oil shales that always seem to need an oil price $10 higher than whatever it currently is to break even, the law of receding horizons (where rising input costs constantly place a resource just out of economic reach) will prevent many an interesting, but dilute, ore body from being developed. Given declining net energy, that's forever as far as I am concerned.

The punchline of the Standard Chartered gold report is that they think $5,000 gold is a realistic target and go on to note the most important shift in gold accumulation of the past 30 years:

The limited new supply comes at a time when central banks have turned from being net sellers to significant net buyers of gold. The result, in our view, will be a gold market in deficit, even assuming flat growth in demand.

With the supply-demand balance so out of kilter, we see the gold price potentially going to US$5,000/oz.

(Source)

The emergence of central banks being net acquirers of gold is actually a pretty big deal. Over the past few decades central banks have been actively reducing their gold holdings preferring paper assets over the 'barbarous relic.' Famously, Canada and Switzerland vastly reduced their official gold holdings during this period, a decision that many citizens of those countries have openly and actively questioned.

The World Gold Council out of the UK is the primary firm that aggregates and reports on gold supply and demand statistics. Here's the most recent data on official (i.e. central bank) gold holdings:

(Source)

Note that the 2009 data is lowered by slightly more than 450 tonnes in this chart to remove the one-time announcement by China that it had secretly acquired 454 tonnes over the prior six years, so this data may differ from other representations you might see. I thought it best to remove that blip from the data. Also the data for 2011 is for the first four months only, so we might expect 2011 to be a record-setter if the current pace continues.

Overall, world supply and demand are a bit out of alignment right now with supply increasing by 2% last year and non-official demand increasing by 10%:

The summary of the fundamental analysis is that with mine production seriously lagging the price increases for gold, coupled to increased central bank and investment demand, we have set the stage for some hefty prices increases irrespective of any fiscal or monetary shenanigans.

However, once we put those back into the mix, I forecast a quite volatile but upwardly sloping price for gold over the coming years. Possibly a very steep upward slope at points.

Supply and Demand - Silver

Silver demand is growing by double-digit percentages, being led primarily by industrial uses and investment demand. The Silver Institute does a fine job of tracking and reporting on these matters.

First demand:

Total fabrication demand grew by 12.8 percent to a 10-year high of 878.8 Moz in 2010; this surge was led by the industrial demand category. Last year, silver’s use in industrial applications grew by 20.7 percentto 487.4 Moz, nearly recovering all the recession-induced losses in 2009, and is now seeing pronounced advances in 2011.

Jewelry posted a gain of 5.1 percent, the first substantial rise since 2003, primarily due to strong GDP gains in emerging markets and the industrialized world’s improving economic picture. Photography fell by 6.6 Moz, realizing its smallest loss in nine years, as medical centers deferred conversion to digital systems. Silverware demand fell to 50.3 Moz from 58.2 Moz in 2009, essentially due to lower demand in India.

(Source)

Now Supply:

Silver Production 2010

Silver mine production rose by 2.5 percent to 735.9 Moz in 2010 aided by new projects in Mexico and Argentina. Gains came from primary silver mines and as a by-product of lead/zinc mining activity, whereas silver volumes produced as a by-product of gold fell 4 percent last year.

Mexico eclipsed Peru as the world’s largest silver producing country in 2010, and Peru is followed by China, Australia and Chile. Global primary silver supply recorded a 5 percent increase to account for 30 percent of total mine production in 2010.

(Source)

Again, we are comparing double digit demand increases against low single digit supply increases.  After a decade of rather dramatic price increases for silver, the alert observer should be asking exactly why this is the case.

In table form, we can clearly see that the silver balance for the world requires both dishoarding from government stockpiles and from the recycling of scrap silver. That is, shortfalls from mining have to be made up from above ground stocks:

(Source)

There's only so long that such an imbalance can continue before the shortfalls require much higher prices to cool off demand.

One of the reasons that I originally invested quite heavily in silver is precisely because I came to the conclusion that the price was far too low, artificially so, and that it would therefore be a great investment. So far so good.

Given the above fundamentals, I project that prices for the precious metals will be many multiples higher - in today's dollar terms - by the end of the decade.

Part II of this report: How to Play The Greatest Gold & Silver Bull Market Of Our Lifetime delves into the specifics of how much of your net worth to invest and in what forms, what price targets gold and silver are likely to reach, and what indicators to look for that will indicate it's time to sell out of your precious metal investments.

Click here to access Part II (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access)

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Morgan Stanley Gets Smacked After Getting Inflation Wrong AGAIN (MS)
June 29, 2011 at 9:58 AM
 

edward-glenn-hadden

Morgan Stanley is just getting crushed lately. 

In the second quarter, the firm got burned being on the wrong side of the inflation trade (again).

Most recently, Morgan Stanley's interest rate group, bet that inflation expectations for the next five years would rise in Treasury markets, while forecasts for the next 30 years would fall, according to Investment News.

Investment News writes:

The spread between the 30-year and the 5-year breakeven rates, which Morgan Stanley was said to be short, has more than tripled to 69.2 basis points yesterday from a low of 19.7 basis points on May 2.

We wonder if the group's head, Glenn Hadden, will see his job at risk.

Word is that it cost Jack DiMaio (the former head of the group) his job in the fourth quarter of last year, when he predicted that the interest rates on Treasuries would trend up, towards 5%. Of course they trended down, towards more like 2.5%. He left Morgan Stanley in January 2011.

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British Bank Lloyds Is About To Cut 15,000 Jobs Including Hundreds In London
June 29, 2011 at 9:55 AM
 

Lloyds

British bank Lloyds is set to cut 15,000 more jobs, The Independent reports.

The bank, which is partially state-owned, is expected to make the announcement tomorrow in an attempt to save £1 billion ($1.6 billion) in costs per year.

Speculation is that layers of management will be stripped away and hundreds of jobs will go in London.

The Telegraph had previously reported that the company is also hoping to cut infrastructure costs, and that senior executives are likely to be stripped of perks such as chauffeur-driven cars.

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Just When I Thought it was Safe to Click a Headline
June 29, 2011 at 9:54 AM
 

I just couldn't resist clicking "Bank of America to pay $8.5 billion settlement over mortgages". Finally the Bankers are paying for destroying the economy. My enthusiasm rapidly faded as I read the article. Then I read

"Shares of Bank of America Corp. jumped more than 4 percent, or 48 cents to $11.30 before the market opened".

I should have stopped at the headline. More whining after the jump.



$ billion can be a very small amount of money. In this case it is a settlement for the alleged fraud committed by Countrywide. So the deal is that, if you destroy the economy, you might make $8.5 billion less than you expected. In particular "The settlement ... covers 530 trusts with original principal balance of $424 billion."

I am personally frustrated, because I hate Bank of America. When I was 17 I opened an account at BayBank (my mom had to cosign). This was a historic account, because it came with an ATM card which could be used in the one ATM machine in Harvard square (a competing bank had a big sign up saying they would have an ATM machine too soon). It was my first PIN number. It was also extraordinary because it was an interest bearing checking account (still banned outside of Massachusetts by regulation q).

So I never closed the account. I didn't want to severe my tie with banking history and besides I was sentimental (yes I understand that people who are emotionally attached to a checking account need professional help).

Baybank was bought by the Bank of Boston, which was bought by Fleet bank (or vice versa) which was bought by Bank of America. The old checks still worked. Then Bank of America began charging $10 a month for accounts with balances below something. Now it does not cost them $10 a month to story my data (that would be less than a kb of data really less than 100 bytes, storing it with 999 backup copies costs 3.5 cents divided by the life of a hard drive in months (I also am emotionally attached to an 18 year old hard drive)). I'm sure they informed me of this charge in some bank statement (I'm eccentric but not eccentric enough to read bank statements for an account I don't really use). So I found out that the account was in the red. I think they even extracted more money from me (yes people like me are born every minute).

And now they get away with paying only $ 8.5 billion.

Yes I am too old to be naive enough to think bankers will be held responsible. I blame myself -- I should know not to click headlines which include "Bank of America."

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Cost vs. value: the $71,000 conference that's a bargain
June 29, 2011 at 9:48 AM
 

The vast majority of Americans are fixated on cost, not value.

They complain about how much something costs, rather than understanding what value it could provide — whether financially, emotionally, or otherwise.

I've written about this before in my post on why I bought a new car, a decision commonly dismissed without any research or perspective. In that post, I argue that value (what you get) is much more important than cost (what you pay.)

Earlier this year, I discovered an extreme example that makes the distinction even clearer. Business Insider wrote about how huge corporations are spending $71,000 per year to attend the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland (pictured above.)

Predictably, most people reacted to this with shock, horror, and even disgust. "$71K for a conference? That's crazy!" But like many of the people who criticized me for buying a new car, these folks were focused solely on the COST, while totally ignoring the VALUE.

Everyone, that is, except the people who actually attend the conference. They talked about what they were getting for their money:

"…because Davos is now primarily a huge, high-level business conference, in which senior executives from the world’s largest companies take advantage of their physical proximity to meet in person with partners and clients and would-be clients–meetings that can end up being vastly more valuable than the price of admission."

You know what? People with millions of dollars are pretty smart. So instead of yelling how stupid wealthy people are to spend money on something, perhaps a better approach is to say, "Hmm….what do they know that I don't? Why would they be doing that?" And try to understand, rather than demean and degrade.

That's why everyone who flew to Davos this year will be back next year and for many years to come, no matter how high the price is.

It's easy to look at a high number like $71,000 (or even $500-$1,000) and proclaim how "outrageous" it is. But it takes a little more insight to think about what that seemingly outrageous amount of money is BUYING.

I see this with my Earn1K course all the time. Each time I open it, a number of readers scoff at the price and invent all sorts of reasons why they would never pay it. (The excuses are so predictable that we actually have a scored taxonomy of excuses, as we've seen thousands of them.) Meanwhile, a smaller number of smart readers consider the price in relation to what Earn1K could help them DO.

DUMB PERSON EXAMPLE: "OMG…why would you pay that much to earn $1,000?? I have an idea…give me $1,001 and I'll give you $1,000…hahaha ahaha aahaha."

SMART PERSON: "Hmm…if this course teaches me the specific steps to earn $1,000/month on the side, I could earn $1k/mo for the rest of my life. Or maybe more…"

One of my students, Jackie, turned her Earn1K investment into $80,000 in new side income. Others have achieved incredible results. She saw the cost of the course not as money down the drain, but as a shorter learning curve (and faster financial rewards.) A classic example of spending money to make money.

The point isn't that you MUST spend money to get value, or that spending money GUARANTEES you will get value. Rather, I just want you to be open to the idea that it can and often does make sense to pay for value — and that cost is not the only concern.

Free 30-day course: Earn More on the Side

My Earn1K course on earning money on the side isn't open right now, but it will be shortly. In the meantime, I'd love for you to join my private list on earning more. You'll get 30 days of material on:

  • How to identify and narrow down a profitable idea
  • Psychological techniques to dominate
  • The "Pay Certainty" Technique: How to know whether people will pay for your idea/service before you invest your time time
  • Advanced tips on pricing
  • Bonus interviews, webcasts and Master Classes

You can join my private list for free by signing up below:

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Image credit: Problemkind
Image credit: AMagill

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Traits of Livermore That Fueled His Success
June 29, 2011 at 9:44 AM
 



The following is a guest post by John Douglas, who enjoys intelligent discussions around writing and focuses on portfolio enhancement through options.

Part 3 in a 4 part series where through a strange time warp-or perhaps just a dream- the narrator is transported back to the early part of the twentieth century. He is charged with re-discovering the lessons of two of the country's greatest legends, and revealing these lessons to a new set of traders and odds-makers.  Part 1 Part 2

Chapter 4:  A different drummer/Alone in a crowd

There was some intangible factor about Livermore and Thompson that I had to ask about. They never really had partners-at least, not in a long-term business setting. They were often surrounded by crowds, but interacted only when it suited their purpose. I knew that Jesse could provide some wisdom about "going it alone." When he was only fifteen years old, one could already see the self-reliance taking shape.  In the words of Jesse Livermore, as a young trader:

"I didn't have a following. I kept my business to myself. It was a one-man business, anyhow. It was my head, wasn't it? Prices were going either the way I doped them out, or they were going the other way, and nobody could stop them out of kindness to me. I couldn't see where I needed to tell my business to anybody else. I've got friends of course, but my business has always been the same-a one-man affair. That is why I have always played a lone hand."

How good was Livermore at such a young age?

"That was the time they got to calling me the Boy Plunger. I had to be changing brokers all the time, going from one bucket shop to another. It got so that I had to give a fictitious name. I'd begin light, only fifteen or twenty shares. At times, when they got suspicious, I'd lose on purpose at first and then sting them proper."

Chapter 5:  Experience is a dead school/The high cost of tuition

Once, when we were floating around on Jesse's yacht- just off the coast of Palm Beach, Florida- I asked Jesse about the dues he paid to become one of the wealthiest traders in the country.

"It cost me millions to learn that another dangerous enemy to a trader is his susceptibility to the urgings of a magnetic personality when plausibly expressed by a brilliant mind. Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill, knowing you have to pay it, no matter what the amount may be."

He stood up and looked out over the Atlantic. I thought he was ready to change the subject, but he whirled around and looked me dead straight in the eye.

"There is nothing like losing all you have in the world for teaching you what not to do. And when you know what not to do in order not to lose money, you begin to learn what to do in order to win. Did you get that?  You begin to learn! A man can excuse his mistakes only by capitalizing them to his subsequent profit." … [visit site to read more]

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China Just Issued A Warning To Anyone Worried About Inflation
June 29, 2011 at 9:40 AM
 

China computer

China's government has announced that it will boost the country's minimum wage by an average annual rate of 13% over the next 5 years, according to China Daily.

According to the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, minimum wages in most parts of the country will reach more than 40 percent of the average income of local urban residents by 2015.

In other words, China is at least trying to show that its working on filling the gap between rich and poor- or as Premier Wen Jibao once said, creating “harmonious employment relations.”

Not only that, but this speaks to China bears who think the country's economy will hit a wall because of its dependence on investors over consumers. This move will give the masses more purchasing power and boosting domestic demand. Its good to remember, though, that the highest minimum wage in China (Senzen province, specifically) is only $203 a month.

For the rest of the world, this might be a little unpleasant. If the cost of Chinese labor goes up, the cost of Chinese goods will go up. That means cost push inflation, or rising prices, for us.

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Tiger Woods Will Be The Pitchman For A Japanese Heat Rub
June 29, 2011 at 9:39 AM
 

tiger woods flexNAGOYA, Japan (AP) — Tiger Woods has been hired as a pitchman for a Japanese heat rub used to relieve muscle and joint pain.

"Kowa Company Ltd. is pleased to announce the use of Tiger Woods as the image character of Antiphlogistic Analgetic Vantelin Kowa series," the Nagoya-based company said in a press release.

The TV commercial with Woods will debut nationally in Japan from mid-July.

Woods has not played since May 12, when he withdrew after nine holes from The Players Championship with knee and Achilles injuries. He said on Tuesday he had no planned timetable for his return, and it would only be when he was 100 percent.

Boston Red Sox pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, who is sidelined after elbow reconstruction surgery, has also promoted the Vantelin heat rub on Japanese TV.

It isn't the first time Woods has promoted products in Japan. He also appeared in TV commercials for canned iced coffee in the late 90s.

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Sell The News, The Rally Is Flopping Already
June 29, 2011 at 9:38 AM
 

seal

Classic.

Everyone bought into everything ahead of the big Greek vote. It passed. And now markets are fading.

The NASDAQ is flat. The Dow is up ust 20 in early going, after looking at one point like it might be up nearly 90.

Nothing too dramatic, but just really unimpressive action.

Bank of America, which had been looking like it might jump 6% in the early going -- after that big settlement -- is up just 3%.

Oil had been around $94, and now it's at $93.50.

Again, this is not some major selloff, but just a comeback from the austerity-euphoria we saw earlier.

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Samsung's 4G Galaxy Tab 10.1 Is Available For Preorder on Verizon Right Bow
June 29, 2011 at 9:37 AM
 

galaxy tab 10.1

Verizon is now offering customers the chance to pre-order a 4G LTE flavor of the Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1, our favorite Android tablet. The devices will ship in 4-6 weeks.

Just yesterday, we heard that Verizon's LTE network is hands down the best, so we're excited to see how blazingly quick this thing can steam through a web page.

You can grab the the 16GB version for $529.99 (on contract) and the 32GB version for $629.99 (on contract). They're both powered by the speedy Tegra 2 processor from NVIDIA, and have front and rear facing cameras.

Verizon is offering a few data plans for you to burn through (very quickly, we'd imagine, due to 4G speeds):

  • $20 for 1GB of data per month
  • $35 for 3GB
  • $50 for 5GB
  • $80 for 10GB

(via BGR)

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Federal Withholding Tax Data Says The US Is Already In A Recession
June 29, 2011 at 9:35 AM
 

I like tracking withholding taxes because they are one of the only economic barometers that we can follow virtually in real time on a daily basis. The charts below contain daily data through June 23.

The first chart shows this year and last year superimposed on one another. The blue shaded line is this year. The brown shaded line is last year at the same time date. That this year has had gains versus last year most of the time as indicated by the spread between the two lines. However, that has begun to change in recent weeks, with this year no longer showing material gains versus last year.

chart

I was wondering how much of the gain was due to inflation, so I calculated the year to year difference and then adjusted it by the government’s employment cost index annual rate of change. That measure has been running consistently running around 2%, which is lower than the CPI (surprise, surprise, surprise). The resulting chart is below.

chart

There are some interesting points to be gleaned from this, once you get past the day to day volatility and just look at the cycles. First is the decline in the linear regression over the course of the year from the 4% area to around 3%. That still is not bad as a real rate of gain, but down is not as good as flat, or up and there’s been a great deal of variation. Before this there have been good excuses for any negative periods, but not this time.  Let’s look at each swing.

In the summer of last year things looked good comparatively speaking because the comparisons versus an extremely weak 2009 were easy. But then in August there was a stall.With the growth rate suddenly going negative in early August as the stock market was beginning to peel off points, the Fed announced what I’ve been calling QL1.5 or Quantitative Leveling 1.5, the precursor to QE2. Tax collections then started to recover. Coincidence? I don’t believe in coincidences when it comes to these things.

Then in mid November the Fed floored the accelerator with QE2. That worked for a while, with the growth rate averaging 5-8% until Christmas. The Administration and Congress then cut a deal to cut payroll taxes beginning in January. Collections plunged as a result, but it was due to the tax cut, not an economic decline, and the theory was that the cut would stimulate growth.

Beginning in March, the theory seemed to be working as withholding tax collections surged versus last year around the same dates, with a spike to a 50% gain for a couple of days in early May. But that was an illusion partly because of a plunge in collections last year when census workers got laid off. But even with that, the surge was sizable and it persisted until the middle of May.

Then things fell apart. The government was peeling off its stimulus programs, gas and food prices had skyrocketed, and suddenly on May 17 tax collections fell versus the same period last year. Since then, the difference between last year and this year has been near zero in real terms. That drop versus the strong gains in March and April suggests that the US may have entered recession a month ago.

I’ve reached that conclusion, rather than expecting another up cycle for several reasons. First, the Fed, recognizing that the disastrous unintended consequences of QE were far more damaging than any benefit from higher stock prices, had concluded by April that QE must end. It is likely to stay off the playing field until crisis conditions reach a crescendo. Furthermore, politicians, in their infinite wisdom, have now decided to cut the only thing creating the illusion of economic growth, which is massive borrowing to fund current spending. Any further reductions in the budget here will only enhance the downward momentum.

It’s going to be an interesting summer.

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Jill Abramson's Top Priority: To Stop Everyone From Fleeing The NYT
June 29, 2011 at 9:35 AM
 

arianna abramsonJill Abramson will replace Bill Keller executive editor of the New York Times early this fall.

She tells Gabriel Sherman at New York that her first order of business will be "retention."

"The economy has improved, whether it's Bloomberg or the Huffington Post, I can feel on any given week that I'm playing whack-a-mole keeping our most talented people."

That point was driven home yet again yesterday with the news that the NYT had lost two more high profile reporters.

David Rohdes, the journalist who spend 7 months held captive by the Taliban, is departing for Reuters and Chris Suellentrop, an editor at the New York Times Magazine who was also responsible for the Opinionator blog, will become deputy editor at Yahoo's network of news blogs.

They join the ever growing list of NYTers who have fled straight into the arms of Arianna's new HuffPo-Aol operation.  Along with the high profile departures of Dexter Filkins and Frank Rich, to the New Yorker and New York, respectively.

Abramson does not elaborate on how she intends to accomplish this, but one imagines it will have to be tied to a more freeing online strategy (so much a part of what HuffPo has to offer) accompanied by proof of sustainability. 

Jill Abramson’s First Task: Stop the Times Defections [NYMag]



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Georgia Home Owners Association Tells A Disabled Vet He Can't Live In Their Community
June 29, 2011 at 9:34 AM
 

Gittens

The group Homes For Our Troops announced yesterday it's been prohibited by a Georgia homeowners association from building a home for a paralyzed veteran.

According to the Augusta Chronicle, the non-profit organization has built over 100 homes for severely disabled vets across the country and this is the first time its been blocked.

The group builds handicap accessible homes whose cost would normally be far out of reach for disabled soldiers.

The Knob Hill Property Association in Augusta Georgia said it was concerned the project would lower property values.

Sgt. 1st Class Sean Gittens and his family family currently rent a property in the subdivision and say they resent having to move their children to a different school district.

Knob Hill representatives did not attend the press conference, but the president sent his regrets by email.

The family has decided to move because they no longer feel welcome.

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Why JPMorgan Is Bullish On Airlines (AMR, DAL, UAL)
June 29, 2011 at 9:31 AM
 

plane

Updated guidance from major airline players suggests softer second quarter revenues, yet JPMorgan is bullish.

Here are some key points from a new note out today:

  • The airline industry had $8 billion of annualized fuel cost savings. The softer demand is expected to barely register with the huge savings. July is expected to be a better month than June for the industry as demand continues to bounce around. Demand is likely to wane but not plummet.
  • The industry seems to be managing itself better given widespread consolidation, limited new entrant activity. Management is now focused on profitability and fixing balance sheets.
  • United Airlines said softer demand would hurt its revenue per available seat mile (RASM). The higher the RASM the more profitable an airline.
  • AMR Corporation also expected softer revenue and higher costs (both including and excluding fuel). The benefits of AMR's transatlantic joint venture are being offset by other problems within the company but it is expected to be profitable in 2012.
  • Delta's Q2 RASM is in line with JP Morgan's 10.2% forecast. Delta's guidance will be hit by the company's decisions as opposed to market factors like the price of oil.

10 Awesome Foreign Airlines That Put America To Shame >

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A Startup Partner Needs More Than a Good Resume
June 29, 2011 at 9:30 AM
 

A while back I talked about how and where to find a co-founder in "Ten Steps in Choosing the Right Startup Partner". The feedback was good, but some readers asked me to be a bit more specific on attributes that might indicate an ideal startup partner. Even if you are looking in all the right places, it helps to know what you are looking for.

In this context, I'm broadening the definition of partner from co-founder to "business partner." The reason is that good attributes apply equally well to "external" partners, as they do to internal partners, like a co-founder or CTO.

In all cases, the challenge is the same, of finding people that you can work with and enjoy in the business relationship. The relationship has to have trust, communication, and respect in order to work. Otherwise, like a marriage, it will be doomed to constant conflict, second guessing, and unhappiness. So the following attributes have to apply to both sides of the partnership to work:

  1. Enjoy working with other people. You may be too independent to be partner material. If you find it hard to trust others, love to work alone, always have to be in control, or insist on micro-managing, you probably won't find a partner who will satisfy you.

  2. Does not need to be managed. Good partners are people who are confident in their own abilities, and willing and able to make decisions, take responsibility for their actions, and able to provide leadership, rather than require leadership.

  3. Compatible work styles. Most entrepreneurs work long hours and weekends to get the job done. If you team with a partner who likes sleep until late morning, and reserves the weekend for other activities, the partnership will likely not work.

  4. Common vision and commitment. It doesn't take long to sense someone's real commitment, or vision and desired outcome of a joint project. Is your project seen by both as an end in itself, or a means to another end?

  5. Similar values and goals. If one of your core values is exceeding your customer expectations for quality and service, and your potential partner ascribes to the low cost, high profit mantra, a successful partnership is highly unlikely over the long-term.

  6. Level of integrity. High levels of integrity are important in business, but more important is your level of comfort with your partner's integrity. This is a critical element of a good relationship, but a tough one. This is probably the best place to apply your "gut" feeling.

  7. Complementary skills. If both of you are experts at software development, even though one loves design and the other loves coding, that still won't get the marketing done. Look at the big picture first of development, finance, and marketing/sales.

  8. Passion for what they do. The passion has to be in the business context – meaning results oriented, customer oriented, and sensitive to competition. In many cases, experts with academic or research credentials are not good partners for a business venture.

  9. Ethical and diversity boundaries. How the leaders of your company handle adherence to the spirit as well as the letter of the law will be seen by all employees, customers, and investors. Ethics and the view of personal boundaries should be explored fully.

  10. No historical baggage. Partner decisions are more important than hiring decisions. Thus you should do the same or more due diligence on educational background, previous work, and references. Look impartially from all angles and do the follow-up.

Beyond the core team of two or three startup partners, every startup should seek to "outsource" the rest of their strategic requirements to external business partners. It's faster and cheaper than building a large team in-house, and usually more effective.

By using this checklist, you should be able to objectively match potential partners with your own needs and expectations. Then, as I suggested before, it's time to establish a formal agreement or contract to cement the partnership. With that, you will have a strong foundation for success, as well as a great working relationship in your new venture.

Marty Zwilling

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DIRK DAY: Nowitzki Gets Hero's Welcome In Germany
June 29, 2011 at 9:28 AM
 

dirk

NBA Champion Dirk Nowitzki returned triumphant to his hometown of Würzburg, Bavaria on Tuesday, according to The Local.

Nowitzki had a parade in his honor, addressed a cheering crowd of 15,000 from the Residentzplatz balcony, and signed the city's "Golden Book", an honor normally reserved for politicians. Winston Churchill's name is also in the Golden book in Würzburg.

Mavericks owner Mark Cuban congratulated his player on his parade, but critiqued his fashion sense on twitter:

 mcuban

Watch a video of the festivities here:

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The Unpredictable "Mr. Wrestling" Kevin Steen
June 29, 2011 at 9:25 AM
 

One of the best minds in wrestling returned to Ring of Honor wrestling on Sunday June 26th after losing a match that would keep him exiled from ROH for what was to be for the rest of his career. The mere reference of Kevin Steen in the last six months in ROH would receive a pretty good pop from the crowd and chants of his moniker "Mr. Wrestling" to ring throughout the arena. It was pretty clear that despite the angle from Final Battle 2010 and it appearing that Steen & ROH definitely had parted ways, the fans of Ring of Honor wanted him back.

It wasn't until the last two weeks on ROH's website that it appeared Kevin Steen would show up at the iPPV in NYC, "Best in the World 2011." The mention of Steve Corino calling out Kevin Steen for backup against "The House of Truth" in NYC created quite the stir amongst wrestling fans. It was apparent that Kevin Steen would be making, what many fans believed to be, and his long awaited return to Ring of Honor wrestling.

In the era of Social Networking we would see Kevin Steen use his twitter handle as a way to push his return to ROH. His handle went from the sadistic "Kill Steen Kill" to the newly guided "Steen is Change." He would also use his own website to blog about why he wanted a "2nd chance," that he had "changed" and that Ring of Honor was his "home."

Continue reading at Camel Clutch Blog →

 

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ANOTHER Flash Sales Site Gets Funded: The Clymb, A Discount Outdoor Gear Startup, Raises $2 Million Series A
June 29, 2011 at 9:21 AM
 

Skier

The Clymb is yet another flash sales site that has secured investor money.

The startup, which was founded in 2009 by rocky mountain ski instructor Cec Annett and Kelly Dachtler, taps into the $26 billion active outdoor market.

It currently has several hundred thousand members and just raised a $2 million Series A round from investors like Oregon Angel Fund, Walden Venture Capital and J Allard.

FirstMark Capital's Amish Jani was right. He predicted that the flash sales industry will get even more fragmented. There are now flash sales sites for fashion, food, wine, travel and outdoor gear.

The business model is clearly working, but we're anxious to see a dominant player roll up all these small verticals into one online destination.

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Beating The US Just Rocketed Mexico Up FIFA's World Rankings
June 29, 2011 at 9:18 AM
 

spain world cup soccer

The oft-criticised Fifa/Coca-Cola World Rankings are out.

Here’s the top ten:

1. Spain
2. Netherlands
3. Germany
4. England
5. Brazil
6. Italy
7. Portugal
8. Croatia
9. Mexico
10. Argentina

The U.S. fell two places to No. 24. Mexico made a massive leap from No. 28 in the last ranking to No. 9 in this one.

Somehow Uruguay fell 11 places to No. 18 despite making the World Cup semifinals last summer. And Ghana fell 18 places to No. 33 despite making the World Cup quarters.

On the rise were Jamaica (up 17 places to No. 38), the Ivory Coast (up seven places to No. 14), and Montenegro (up eight places to No. 16).

17 of the top 25 countries are from Europe. Three are from South America. Two are from North America. Two are from Asia. And one is from Africa.

Check out the whole rankings here.

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Forex: Euro Holds Ground As Greece Passes Budget Cuts
June 29, 2011 at 9:15 AM
 


   
   
PRESIDENT CONDE ISSUES MULTI-BILLION DOLLAR ULTIMATUM TO RUSAL – ALCOA, RIO TINTO, AND CHINESE IN NEW RACE FOR RUSAL ASSETS IN GUINEA
June 29, 2011 at 9:12 AM
 

By John Helmer, Moscow

Now it's official – the French, British, Americans, Chinese and Indians are all behind Guinean President Alpa Conde's decision to revoke the Russian concession for the world's largest unmined bauxite mining deposit, Dian-Dian, and hit the current concession holder, United Company Rusal, with back-tax and fraud claims, plus interest and penalties, for about $1 billion.

A small item in a Paris-based newsletter, African Mining Intelligence (AFI) , out this week, reports the problems Rusal is facing in Conakry. These aren't news – Conde ordered Oleg Deripaska, Rusal's chief executive, out of his office in April. Since then Conde has held discussions with his advisors in Conakry and abroad, along with George Soros's legal aid team in Guinea. The Guinean president has decided that after concluding his sensitive negotiations with Rio Tinto over iron-ore mining rights at Simandou, he will start new negotiations with the Russians. "Conde feels he has finished with Rio [Tinto]," said one of the presidential advisors. But there is still no cash [from Rio Tinto's promised $700 million down payment] in the treasury. The government is strapped for cash, and will go after all the [mine concession] violations it can. His next target is Rusal. After Rusal, the target will be Crew Gold [owned by Alexei Mordashov's Nord Gold company]."

AMI is owned by a Frenchman of Moroccan origin, Maurice Botbol, who publishes other newsletters on Africa and the intelligence community. Botbol will sell you this story for €4, although though the information is dated, not altogether original, and not quite accurate:

The Russian concern UC RusAl is in a tizzy in Guinea following the announcement that a Chinese group plans to build an aluminum complex at Fria near RusAl's refinery. A former natural resources minister, Fassine Fofane, now the boss of a consultancy named Kakande, accompanied a delegation of Chinese investors from the firm Jiuquan Iron & Steel (Group) Co. Ltd (JISCO) in Guinea in early June. Fofana's delegation proposed building an alumina refinery and an aluminum smelter in the Fria region, close to the Friguia aluminum refinery managed by UC RusAl.

The Chinese program was presented to prime minister Mohamed Said Fofana and to mines minister Mohamed Lamine Fofana. The delegation visited the mine operated by Compagnie des Bauxites de Guinee (CBG) at Sangaredi before travelling to Fria to examine the Friguia facilities. Rusal was sufficiently alarmed by the visit that it asked its representative in the country to examine how much influence Fassine Fofana had over the present government. RusAl is especially worried that the Chinese shepherded by the former minister might persuade the government to allow JISCO to use the railway to the port of Friguia to ship out its production or even, if it builds an aluminum smelter, that the government could order the Russian group to sell its alumina production at Kindia to the smelter in question.

On April 6, president Alpha Conde gave a report by Alex Stewart International to the Russian envoy to Guinea, Alexander Bregadze. The report calls on RusAl to pay USD 1 billion in compensation for loss of earnings linked to the privatisation of Friguia in 2006. The same day a meeting between Conde and a Russian delegation led by natural resources minister Yury Trutnev turned rather frigid because the president declined to receive Oleg Deripaska, boss of RusAl.

The Alex Stewart International (ASI) report was first ordered and compiled by former Guinean mining minister, Mahmoud Thiam, at the start of January 2010. This is an excerpt from the report – link. Thiam discussed it in detail with the Rusal executive in charge of Guinea, Victor Boyarkin, at several meetings during last year. Boyarkin, a former intelligence officer, reports directly to Deripaska. The head of Rusal's international relations department, Sergei Chestnoy, a former member of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, has been sidelined as he is under investigation by the US Government.

The Paris publication this week is a signal that there are now French and other international interests engaged in the lobbying for Conde to revoke Rusal's operating and mining rights in Guinea, and put them up for new awards.

A source close to Conde reports, following a conversation with him a few days ago, that "Minister Fofana is a promoter of a refinery project at Friguia. And at least three other refineries at various stages of planning. They pose no threat to Rusal."

"On the other hand," he added, "the President has made it clear that Rusal is next on his list of issues to fix."

Another Guinean source claims the business issues have become personal for Conde and Deripaska after the April door-closing incident, and after Deripaska sought support from Conde's wife, Djene Kaba Condé.

Thiam, who retired from his ministerial post in January and returned to his home in the US, continues to be a presidential advisor. He confirms that the January 2010 ASI report is the basis for one of the two claims which have been tabled with Rusal. As the report excerpt shows, the ASI claim, for an estimated minimum of $960 million, deals only with Rusal's Friguia (Fria on map right) bauxite mining and alumina refining and export operations.

Before the ASI report was issued, Thiam and the Guinean government had gone to court in Conakry to annul Rusal's Friguia purchase agreement. Rusal issued statements in response that it had "purchased Friguia in full compliance with Guinean legislation and we consider the plant to be our legitimate property." Rusal also said it would apply to an international arbitration tribunal in Paris to overturn the Guinean court's ruling against Rusal. According to Thiam, Rusal bought the Friguia refinery for a privatization transfer price of less than $20 million.

The second of Conde's targets is Rusal's concession to mine Dian-Dian. According to Rusal's website, this deposit "is located 350 km north of Conakry in the Boke province [see Boke on map], and is a unique deposit containing around 1 billion tonnes of bauxite ore with a high aluminium content and insignificant amounts of hazardous impurities." According to Rusal's share sale prospectus in Hong Kong of January 2010, Dian-Dian represents roughly one tonne in five of Rusal's entire global bauxite reserves.

According to Thiam, President Conde intends to repeat to Rusal the ultimatum it received from Thiam before he left his ministerial office — either start investing and building the mine, as required by the concession agreements, or lose one or all of the Dian-Dian mining permits. "Dian-Dian has three large permits with reserves to accommodate a. large player each," Thiam said this week. "Once they realise [Dian-Dian] is in play, all the big players will show up." Asked what bauxite mining internationals he knows to be interested, Thiam referred to Chinese companies, Alcoa of the US, Rio Tinto of the UK, and Middle Eastern companies. He added: "no deadline has been set yet [for retrocession of permits]. The process is just starting. But Dian-Dian is at great risk."

Rusal refuses to respond to this correspondent's questions. The latest reference Rusal has made to its negotiations on the Guinean financial claims was this announcement of May 26: "UC RUSAL (SEHK: 486, EuroNext: RUSAL/RUAL, MICEX: RUALR, RTS: RUAL), the world's largest aluminium producer, is pleased to announce the launch of a unique education programme the "RUSAL Scholarship-2011". The RUSAL Scholarship will provide 100 talented young Guineans aged between 18 and 25 the opportunity to be educated in Russia's best universities. All accommodation, transportation costs and tuition fees will be covered by UC RUSAL."

The company said it anticipates spending $5.5 million over five years on this project. The cost of developing the Dian-Dian mine and associated infrastructure has been estimated at more than $600 million.

The alliance of Alcoa and Rio Tinto already holds a bauxite mining concession at Guinea's biggest-capacity mine at Boke. According to Alcoa's website presentation, "Alcoa is present in Guinea as a 45% shareholder of Halco Mining, a partnership which owns 51% of Compagnie des Bauxites de Guinee (CBG). CBG, a partnership with the Government of Guinea, has exclusive rights to mine bauxite in Guinea’s Sangaredi Plateau. In addition to mining in Sangaredi, CBG operates a port in Kamsar [see map] for drying and shipping bauxite to refineries worldwide. Alcoa also supports the local Guinea community through healthcare and library programs funded by the Alcoa Foundation."

Omitted from this version is that Alcoa's equal 45% shareholding partner in Halco was Alcan of Canada, and since the latter's acquisition in 2007, Rio Tinto. The CBG operations are larger than Rusal's in Guinea, and the largest in the bauxite world.

For many years, Rusal blamed Alcoa, and its former chief executive Paul O'Neill, US Secretary of the Treasury in 2001-2002, for being behind all of Rusal's troubles in the US, including court fights and the banning of Oleg Deripaska from entry to the US. Then in 2004-2005 Alcoa, headed by an O'Neill successor, bought two of Rusal's aluminium rolling-mills in samara and Rostov regions. That deal was facilitated by the purported advisor to the Russian government, Dmitry Afanasyev, who has since served as a Rusal board director and lawyer to Deripaska. Alcoa sources concede that they have been careful not to appear to be challenging Rusal's interests abroad in case Deripaska makes trouble for Alcoa's interests in Russia.

The involvement of US financier George Soros as an informal advisor to President Conde, and the despatch of Soros-funded US lawyers to Conakry to review mining permits and resource privatization records, has reawakened Rusal suspicion that the Americans, including Alcoa and the White House, are again aiming at Deripaska.

An American aluminium industry source says that President Conde's negative attitude towards Rusal goes back many years, during the rule of Lansana Conte, the 25-year Guinean dictator who died in December of 2008. "Rusal was so arrogant and insulting to the Ministers and to the President’s assistants that it was clear that something was going to happen with Rusal’s virtual monopoly. Now it is coming home to roost."

But Rusal wasn't the first of the Russian groups to try to hold on to Dian-Dian without digging a hole. In the last years of the Soviet period and early 1990s, the controlling shareholders of the Bratsk Aluminium Plant (BrAZ) — Boris Gromov, Yury Schlaifstein, plus David and Simon Reuben of London – also claimed the Dian-Dian concession, and planned to mine it to feed their smelter. "Funny how life repeats itself," the US source says.

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APPLE: We're Sorry, But Final Cut Pro X Is Still A Breakthrough (AAPL)
June 29, 2011 at 9:11 AM
 

final cut pro x faq bigger

Apple just posted an FAQ page on its main website (not its support website) offering explanations and excuses for many of the woes people around the world are having with Final Cut Pro X.

The document feels more like a "we're sorry the features you want aren't here yet," but this begs the question as to why Final Cut Pro X was released when it was.

At the same time, Apple seems happy with what it has made. In the intro paragraph, you read:

"Final Cut Pro X is a breakthrough in nonlinear video editing. The application has impressed many pro editors"

Which is like saying "we're sorry, but...."

Apple wouldn't have published an FAQ if it didn't think it had some explaining to do, so we're glad it is coming to terms with the fact that FCPX shipped without many features professional editors would consider "essential."

Some of the missing features Apple offers explanation for include XML export, multi-cam editing, importing from Final Cut Pro 7, versioning, scratch disks, and more,

If you're still unhappy with the software and want a refund, Apple's handing them out.

(via 9 to 5 Mac)

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Samsung escalates its war of patents with Apple, and is now filing an ITC patent complaint seeking to block U.S. imp...
June 29, 2011 at 9:09 AM
 

Samsung escalates its war of patents with Apple, and is now filing an ITC patent complaint seeking to block U.S. imports of the iPad and iPhone.

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The Fed Just Extended Its Swap Line Arrangements With Banks Around The World
June 29, 2011 at 9:09 AM
 

bernanke

UPDATE 9:12 AM: We have official language to back up the earlier Reuters report. An extension, rather than a new opening.

From The ECB:

The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) has taken a decision, in coordination with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank, to extend the liquidity swap arrangements with the Federal Reserve up to 1 August 2012. The Bank of Japan will consider the extension at its next monetary policy meeting. The swap arrangements established in May 2010 had been authorised until 1 August 2011. The Governing Council decided to continue to conduct US dollar liquidity-providing operations with a maturity of seven days. These operations will continue to take the form of repurchase operations against eligible collateral and will be carried out as fixed rate tenders with full allotment. The ECB will keep the necessity, frequency and maturity of its US dollar repo operations under review.

Swap lines have been extended for Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, and the ECB. Japan has not yet approved this extension, to August 1, 2012, from August 1, 2011.

Earlier: The Fed opened up and extended swap lines with the European Central Bank as pressure increased on the region's banking system due to the sovereign debt crisis, Reuters reports.

Citing a Wall Street Journal report, Reuters says the lines have been opened to the ECB as well as central banks in the UK, Japan, Canada, and Switzerland.

Essentially, these banks were in need of more dollars to fund the demand of their respective country's banks. The Fed supplied the means to get them those dollars.

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The Fed Is Opening Up New Swap Lines To Ease Pressure On European Banks
June 29, 2011 at 9:09 AM
 

bernanke

UPDATE 9:12 AM: We have official language to back up the earlier Reuters report.

From The ECB:

The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) has taken a decision, in coordination with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank, to extend the liquidity swap arrangements with the Federal Reserve up to 1 August 2012. The Bank of Japan will consider the extension at its next monetary policy meeting. The swap arrangements established in May 2010 had been authorised until 1 August 2011. The Governing Council decided to continue to conduct US dollar liquidity-providing operations with a maturity of seven days. These operations will continue to take the form of repurchase operations against eligible collateral and will be carried out as fixed rate tenders with full allotment. The ECB will keep the necessity, frequency and maturity of its US dollar repo operations under review.

Swap lines have been extended for Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, and the ECB. Japan has not yet approved this extension, to August 1, 2012, from August 1, 2011.

Earlier: The Fed opened up and extended swap lines with the European Central Bank as pressure increased on the region's banking system due to the sovereign debt crisis, Reuters reports.

Citing a Wall Street Journal report, Reuters says the lines have been opened to the ECB as well as central banks in the UK, Japan, Canada, and Switzerland.

Essentially, these banks were in need of more dollars to fund the demand of their respective country's banks. The Fed supplied the means to get them those dollars.

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The Fed Is Opening Up New Swap Lines To Ease Pressure On European Banks
June 29, 2011 at 9:09 AM
 

bernanke

The Fed opened up and extended swap lines with the European Central Bank last week as banks through the region deal with additional pressure due to the region's sovereign debt crisis, Reuters reports.

Citing a Wall Street Journal report, Reuters says the lines have been opened to Europe, the UK, Japanese, Canadian, and Swiss central banks.

Essentially, these banks were in need of more dollars to fund the demand of their respective country's banks. The Fed supplied the means to get them the money.

More to follow...

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Greek Parliament Passes Vote – EUR/USD Slides
June 29, 2011 at 9:08 AM
 

Yes is the answer. The Greek parliament said “yes” on the first vote of the austerity measures. Violence continues outside the parliament.

EUR/USD now trades at 1.4391. The vote hasn’t been completed yet, but there is already a majority.

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Obama's Team Worried About His Reelection Chances
June 29, 2011 at 9:07 AM
 

obama stress

As President Barack Obama's reelection effort kicks into high gear, he and his aides are struggling to find an economic message that resonates with voters.

Obama is having difficulty and recapturing the enthusiasm of his first campaign, which has Obama advisors "very worried" writes National Journal's Josh Kraushaar. 

He reports that Obama's campaign is heavily investing resources into Virginia and North Carolina — two traditionally Republican states he carried in 2008.

"They’ve never been critical cogs in a presidential strategy," Kraushaar writes. "If Team Obama sees them as such in 2012, it suggests the campaign is struggling in states that were comfortably on its side in 2008, particularly those in the Rust Belt.

Obama's new focus on manufacturing — the focus of two presidential trips to the Midwest in the past week — is another sign Obama is worried about his job creation record, trying to focus on growth in the manufacturing sector, Kraushaar said. 

From "getting the car out of the ditch" to "bumps in the road," polls show Obama is having difficulty conveying his strategy for turning around the still anemic economy.

"Bumps in the road" even became a frequent target for Mitt Romney's and the subject of two campaign ads.

No incumbent president has lost reelection since George H.W. Bush in 1992.

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Former Lehman Brothers Chief Arrested For Forging A Prescription For Oxycoton And Ritalin
June 29, 2011 at 9:06 AM
 

bradley jack

Bradley Jack, a former head of investment banking at Lehman Brothers, was arrested for trying to use a forged prescription to buy Oxycontin and Ritalin in Connecticut.

Jack, who owns the most expensive home in Fairfield, "was charged with second-degree forgery and forgery of a prescription drug," according to Fairfield Patch, via Dealbook.

The former co-COO of Lehman reportedly gave a pharmacist a prescription for 12 Oxycontin pills and nine Ritalin pills at a CVS in Fairfield.

The pharmacist immediately suspected the prescription had been photocopied and was bogus, so he called the doctor listed on the scrip, according to Patch. The doctor had not signed the prescription.

So the shrewd pharmacist,

[A]fter accepting the prescription, told Jack to come back in an hour to pick up the prescription police said. Jack returned, and the pharmacist told him to wait, police said. But Jack left before police officers arrived, and CVS employees gave police a description of the man and the license plate number on the Range Rover that Jack drove off in, police said.

The police were able to locate Jack, who was "dressed casually in tan khakis and a stripped shirt," through the license plates. A CVS worker had "followed him out of the store and got his license plate," Dealbook reported.

Jack apparently said he knew he'd done wrong, and said sorry.

The former banker owns a waterfront estate in Fairfield that is worth about $34.6 million. He joined Lehman in the 1980s and "after being demoted to “Office of the Chairman,” in 2004," he left the firm armed with a severance package of $80 million, according to Vanity Fair.

Jack and his wife divorced in 2008, and "both cite Lehman as a strain on their marriage, recalling, for example, how an important meeting kept Brad from being at Karin’s side when she went into labor," Vanity Fair reported.

The couple featured prominently in "The Devil’s Casino," a book about Lehman Brothers.

At one point, according to the Telegraph, the book,

[R]ecounts that during the annual summer retreats at Fuld’s ranch, in Sun Valley, Idaho, it wasn’t uncommon for the chief executive to pull one of his employees aside to find out about his home life. He once asked Bradley Jack, head of banking and later co-chief operating officer, after overhearing an argument between Jack and his wife Karin, “Are you all having trouble?”

“He really wanted to know,” Karin Jack told Ward. “He didn’t think Brad and I looked happy enough and it really worried him.”

Second-degree forgery is a felony offense, which means there's a possibility that this once high-flying banker could spend some time in jail if he's convicted, Dealbook said.

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New Poll Shows Alaskans Would Vote For Obama Over Ex-Governor Palin
June 29, 2011 at 9:04 AM
 

palin obama

If I could summarize my 2008-2009-2010 research in Alaska about Sarah, I’d say the most surprising thing I found was that those who know her best like her least.

Perhaps I should amend that now to say that those who know Sarah best dislike her most.

It’s only the outliers, who know little or nothing, who cling to their fantasies about the woman who never was.

Alaska Daily News today reports on a new Hays Research poll that shows that President Obama would defeat (“The Oft-Defeated”) Palin 42-36 in Alaska.

And this poll was commissioned by right-wing Alaska radio talk show host Mike Porcaro. Commenting after seeing the results, Porcaro said, “the surprising result is she has become highly unpopular in her home state.”

Porcaro is a good guy and a reasonable man. But if he considers the result of his own poll “surprising,” it shows he hasn’t had his fingers on the same statewide pulse I detected last summer, and even in the fall of 2009 when I was researching THE ROGUE in Alaska.

In any case, now no one can deny the reality: Alaskans would rather re-elect an African-American Democrat than see their ex-Governor in the White House.

My first alert to the fraudulence of Sarah Palin came in June, 2008, and it came from a conservative, my friend Tom Brennan, the ex-newspaperman and p.r. man and present-day author, about whom I write in Going to Extremes. I was thinking of revisiting Alaska to write about the changes since the mid-1970′s, the period about which I wrote in Extremes.

That’s when I learned that Alaska had its first woman governor. Because she was described as a conservative Republican, I wrote to Tom, thinking he’d tell me that she was a brilliant crusader for all that was right (as in “right wing”) and that I should make her the centerpiece of my new book about Alaska.

Well, she has become the centerpiece, but not in the way I first intended. Tom wrote back that she was an ignorant nitwit. He quoted a high-ranking military friend who’d met her as governor and who’d said she had “less depth than a worn-out dime.”

That was my first clue that there was trouble in paradise. I started to pay attention to Palin. What I sensed from the start, and later verified through extensive research, was that by late summer of 2008 Sarah was already sourdough toast in Alaska.

As I write in THE ROGUE:

As August waned…Sarah found herself at the low point of her political career. Former supporters, both Democrats and Republicans, turned against her. After promising honesty, transparency, and the highest ethical standards, she found herself accused of lying, cover-up, and actions that seemed, at the least, a grievous ethical breach.

Autumn is a mere blink of an eye in Alaska, and looking beyond it, Sarah would not have been able to see anything other than a long, dark winter of turmoil, acrimony and discontent. Then, like an angel on a mission from her Heavenly Father, John McCain swooped down to tap her with his magic wand.

The rest is history.

And now more Alaskans would vote for Obama than for Sarah.

Repudiation–and that’s with a “p”–does not come in a stronger dose.
To put it another way to Palin supporters: Refudiate this.

This post originally appeared at The Rogue Blog.

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The 19 Most Hated Companies In America (BAC, DAL, POM)
June 29, 2011 at 9:00 AM
 

bank of america

There's one difference between Bank of America and UPS that won't show up on the balance sheet.

Customers hate Bank of America. This feeling -- generated by excessive fees, impenetrable call centers and foreclosure horror stories -- is reflected in the American Customer Satisfaction Index.

And customers love UPS.

ACSI rates companies based on thousands of consumer satisfaction surveys. The most-hated include large banks, airlines, power and telecom companies.

"These are not terribly competitive industries, as the switching barriers for most of them are quite high," ACSI's David VanAmburg told us. "In other industries, like the food or clothing sector, the competition is huge. They bend over backwards to make customers happy, because they have to."

#19 Bank Of America

Satisfaction rating: 68/100

Customers complain of excessive fees for overdraft and other services and are pursuing lawsuits over illegal charges. The bank is America's largest mortgage servicer and the slowest to respond to clients, according to Treasury reports. In recent years it has blundered through countless foreclosure horror stories. Meanwhile, as with other large banks, BoA offers dismal rates for savings.

Bank of America was the second lowest rated bank.

Rating provided by ACSI.




#18 Dish Network

Satisfaction rating: 67/100

Common complaints include incorrect billing and bad customer service. In 2009, Dish Network paid nearly $6 million to settle allegations that the company practiced misleading consumer marketing and lacked full disclosure when dealing with costs and fees. The agreement was made between Dish Network and 46 attorneys general.

Dish's rating has lost four points since the last year.

Rating provided by ACSI.



#17 Cox Communications

Satisfaction rating: 67/100

Common complaints include unexpected extra fees including up to $480 to cancel service

Cox has maintained its satisfaction rating since the previous year, affirming its lead on Time Warner, Comcast, and Charter. Cox has actually been touted as a success story compared to other cable companies. That said, cable companies in general are liked less than satellite, according to ASCI.

Rating provided by ACSI.

 



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How Not to Join Facebook's Walking Dead
June 29, 2011 at 9:00 AM
 

Last week over at All Facebook, Brian Carter posted: Shocker 3% to 7.5% of Fans See Your Page's Post, which was a wakeup call to many of us that perhaps our Facebook pages weren't getting quite as many eyes as we had originally thought. Even more surprising was that, based on the data compiled by PageLever, the more fans you have, the less likely it is that your content is reaching your audience. What is going on?

EdgeRank is what's going on.

EdgeRank is the algorithm that Facebook uses to determine which posts a user should see in his/her news feed. It's influenced by the freshness of the content, engagement with the content (liking or commenting) and how strong the connection is between the brand and the user. The more interactions a particular user has with your brand, the more likely it is that your content will appear in their News Feed and that they'll see it. This means, of course, that it's not simply good enough to create a Facebook Brand page for your business. You must create content that users want to engage with. Otherwise, you're wasting time posting content to an empty room.

Below are some tips to keep your brand active so you avoid becoming part of Facebook's walking dead.

Craft Engaging Status Updates

You know how important your Status Update is. It's pretty much your gateway for interacting with fans, but just because you're posting something doesn't mean it’s being seen. As noted above, EdgeRank is what determines whether or not a user will be exposed to what you're putting out. That means to help your chances, you need to create content that is intended for interaction.

Use your Facebook Status to:

  • Ask questions
  • Hold informal polls
  • Get feedback
  • Encourage people to "Like" the update if they agree with a particular statement or to discuss why don't.

The more you can encourage people to comment, Like or interact with your update, the greater your chance that Facebook will put the update on their friends' news feed, exposing new people to your brand.

Use the Facebook Questions Feature

When using your update to ask your community a question, don't just type the question into your Status and hit enter. Instead, use the Facebook Questions option that's located above your status bar to help you post that content. Because of how these Questions are distributed through the site, your question will actually receive more exposure and prominence than if you just posted the question directly into the status bar. Facebook allows you to easily ask true/false, multiple choice or open-ended questions, so there's plenty of opportunity to get creative.

Use Photo and Video Content

Because of the viral nature of Facebook, media content such as photos, videos and audio tend to do very well. People like to share this content, and the more they share and Like it, the greater the brand karma you're going to create. Take a look at your brand and ask yourself what kind of media you have that you can share on Facebook. Maybe you have photos of the new line of cakes you're experimenting with, video from your last company picnic or holiday party, or audio interviews that you've shared in newsletters or on-site. If you do, consider putting this material on Facebook, and encourage people to share it. And if you don't yet have it, consider investing in creating it – either as Facebook exclusive content or content for your website.

Worth noting: Now that Facebook has given photos more real estate on your profile page, it's even more important to provide something that is eye-catching and will pique interest in your page. If you have a lot of interesting images, you can use the Facebook Profile Banner to customize your photo strip.

Host Relevant Contests

Another great way to create buzz around your Brand page and keep users engaged with it is to hold contests via Facebook. Contests can keep old fans engaged by giving them something to interact with and a reason to re-visit your page, while also helping to attract new fans at the same time. When running Facebook contests, however, do your best to make the contest as targeted to your brand as possible; otherwise, you run the risk of shooting yourself in the foot.

For example, by running a contest that is too broad ("Like this page and win an iPad!"), you may get a lot of people to Like your page, but they're not people who are interested in what you have to offer and they won't engage with future posts. The result of this, of course, is a low EdgeRank score over time as a result of untargeted eyes. While Facebook contests can be a great way to attract eyes and ignite buzz, it's the targeted contests that work the best in the long run.

Bonus: Get Smart About Targeting

One of the neat things about Facebook marketing is the power of the targeting that's allotted to you. Knowing that part of your EdgeRank score has to do with engagement, you want to make sure that you're customizing your messages for a particular audience as often as you can so that only the group that's relevant to the message actually sees it.

For example, did you know that Facebook allows you to choose which audience you want to display certain messages to? Maybe you own a local chain of bakeries with storefronts in several different cities in Michigan. Do you have a special that's only being run in one particular location? Or maybe you have a cupcake truck that's circling the town and you only want the people within that area to see that? By clicking the small lock icon below the Status bar, you can opt to have Facebook show that update only to the people who can benefit from the offer.

By creating targeted messages for a small subset of fans, you help increase your engagement percentage.

If you're not working to keep your fans engaged with your page on a regular basis, chances are you're not being seen and you're wasting a great opportunity.

From Small Business TrendsHow Not to Join Facebook's Walking Dead

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On To The Next One: Andrew Brunette
June 29, 2011 at 9:00 AM
 

In May I wrote that Todd Reynolds will not be representing any homosexual hockey players after his outlandish Tweets regarding Sean Avery’s support of same-gender marriage.  Reynolds, the Vice President of Uptown Sports Management, sad that it was very sad for him to read Avery’s “misguided support of same-gender ‘marriage.’”  In the same Tweet, Reynolds said, “Legal or not, it will always be wrong.”

It turns out that Reynolds’ statements have not only put him in the doghouse with regards to homosexuals, but also at least one of his now former clients.  Yesterday, Michael Russo of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reported that Andrew Brunette fired Reynolds and Uptown Sports Management due to the whole Avery fiasco.  Brunette his hired Don Baizley, an attorney at Thompson Dorfman Sweatman LLP, as his new agent.

Brunette signed a 3-year, $7 million deal with the Minnesota Wild in 2008.  As Russo notes in his Tweet, Brunette is a potential free agent.  Rough time for an agent to lose his millionaire client.

On To The Next One: Andrew Brunette from Sports Agent Blog - Sports Agent News, Sports Business, Sports Law, Sports Contract Negotiations, NCAA Rules and Regulations.

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Driverless Cars Will End Traffic Problems And This Report Confirms It
June 29, 2011 at 8:55 AM
 

driverless

If 5 out of every 1,000 cars were driverless, traffic problems could be gone for good according to a report by Opel.

If that seems like a small number, consider this -- the cars will gather data on traffic conditions as they drive and turn it over wirelessly as they pass relay points. Traffic managers can use that information to guide decisions on how to control traffic, saving fuel and stress for everyone.

These cars don't even necessarily need to be driverless. As long as a car is wifi-enabled, it can still be controlled by good old-fashioned manpower.

The takeaway is this -- it will only take a small number of wifi-enabled cars to greatly improve everyone's driving experience.

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Good Start, But This App Needs a Few Pivots
June 29, 2011 at 8:53 AM
 

The stars all seemed to be converging for me as a fan of the Business Model Canvas.

I am refining the 3.0 version of my syllabus for my planning class that has become largely centered around the Business Model Generation framework.  I have never been more energized going into a new academic year.  My class no longer looks like a traditional old business planning class.  Instead, students learn to develop a business model and pivot until the cows come home.  My old slide decks have been filed away and I have all new PowerPoints with fresh lessons, images, videos, and of course, Dilbert cartoons.

I have organized a group of faculty from across the US and Canada to present how we use the business modeling to teach our students how to successfully launch a venture that is responsive to the market.  We will be offering a pre-conference session at USASBE this coming January

I have been exploring how we might do some research into business modeling with a few colleagues.

Students and alumni who have been using the business model generation framework have been raving about its power and utility.

And then for Father's Day, my wonderful family gave me an iPad.  Now I can finally get the Business Model Toolbox App.  I imagined connecting my new iPad to the LCD in the classroom so I had the ability to bring the business model canvas to life for my students.

But alas, even at the hefty price of $30, this app falls well short of what I hoped for. 

Is it a great tool for developing a business model?  Yes, but mostly if you work alone.  It is not easily shared unless you pass around your iPad and cannot be shown live and in motion via and external monitor or better yet LCD projector.

The beauty of the business model canvas is that it allows you to create a large visual representation of the business on a whiteboard or on the wall with sticky notes.  Then you, your partners, your team, and your advisers can all look at the same picture and refine it, improve it, or quite often pivot it entirely.

I am glad I bought the app, as it will be a great tool to work with students and alumni one-on-one in my office.  And I know my Apple-minded, shall I call them Apple-zealot, students will likely find it a great tool to learn how to use this incredibly useful tool.

But it has a ways to go to be a true app version of the original.

So for the entrepreneur on a tight budget, bootstrapping your way to launch, I still recommend the paper version and all of the free information available on the web.

The business model for this app needs a few more pivots before I recommend it as an essential tool worth $30.

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The Euro Just Took A Nose Dive On That Surprising Greek Deputy "No"
June 29, 2011 at 8:49 AM
 

UPDATE 9:07 AM: The vote has now passed. Read the details here >

UPDATE 8:57 AM: The euro has turned things around, after one of the opposition party politicians voted yes for the austerity measures.

That surprising "no" from one of Papandreou's deputies has sent the euro tumbling. It has since rebounded somewhat, as markets come to terms with how this whole situation is playing out.

Chart

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The Euro Just Took A Nose Dive On That Surprising Greek Deputy "No"
June 29, 2011 at 8:49 AM
 

UPDATE 8:57 AM: The euro has turned things around, after one of the opposition party politicians voted yes for the austerity measures.

That surprising "no" from one of Papandreou's deputies has sent the euro tumbling. It has since rebounded somewhat, as markets come to terms with how this whole situation is playing out.

Follow the vote live here >

Chart

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the-euro-just-took-a-nose-dive-on-that-surprising-greek-deputy-no.jpg (JPEG Image)
   
   
The Euro Just Took A Nose Dive On That Surprising Greek Deputy "No"
June 29, 2011 at 8:49 AM
 

That surprising "no" from one of Papandreou's deputies has sent the euro tumbling. It has since rebounded somewhat, as markets come to terms with how this whole situation is playing out.

Follow the vote live here >

Chart

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the-euro-just-took-a-nose-dive-on-that-surprising-greek-deputy-no.jpg (JPEG Image)
   
   
Forget Herman Cain! Jon Stewart Provides FOX News With A List Of Every Offensive Voice He's Ever Done
June 29, 2011 at 8:40 AM
 

Last week Jon Stewart made a joke about GOP presidential hopeful Herman Cain's (not serious) plan to keep Congressional bills to three pages.

Subsequently, and following his epic interview with Chris Wallace, both Cain and FOX have accused Stewart of picking on Cain because he's a black conservative.  No one has gone so far as to accuse Stewart of racism, but the insinuation is difficult to miss.

Said Stewart: "Fox News is in its closing arguments of who is a bigger asshole me, or them."

And if they want voices, gosh darn, they will get voices.

"If my ridicule of silly things using bizarre caricature voices has given Fox what appears to be very strong programming, your cup's about to runneth over, motherf*ckers."

Behold: "Jon Stewart F*cks Himself With His Own Mouth."

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BlackRock Chief: If My Accountants Allowed It "I Would Be 100 Percent In Equities"
June 29, 2011 at 8:34 AM
 

Larry Fink

BlackRock chief Larry Fink is extremely bullish on stocks, and would be 100% invested in them, if he was allowed, according to CNBC.

"I am not afraid of treasurys but if my accountants would allow me I would be 100 percent in equities," he said.

Fink criticized those who were investing in hedge funds, paying for someone to manage their money and hoping that they would earn more than in stocks.

Larry Fink, via CNBC:

"Anything earning 3 percent or lower is the dumbest thing you can do," he added. "If we went on holiday four years ago and came back better human beings with a tan, markets would still be back where they were four years ago."

Fink cautioned that the situation in Europe would likely get worse, as leaders asked more and more from bailed out states, including a decline in the standard of living in those countries, for bondholders to get paid.

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This Modified Ford GT Just Broke A High Speed Record At Kennedy Space Center
June 29, 2011 at 8:34 AM
 

Ford GT

At Kennedy Space center last week, Johnny Bohmer broke the world's record for taking a street legal car from a standing start to 223 mph.

According to NASA's website, that's faster than the shuttle flies as it touches down, and the Guinness Book of World Records was on hand to certify the achievement.

The car is legal to be driven on the road, because it's not just the engine that's been modified -- it's the paint too.

Developed to increase a vehicles gas mileage, the new "PerformaBond" paint fills in its own microscopic pores as it's applied, allowing the car to slip through the air more smoothly than it would with traditional coatings.

Tests showed up to a two percent reduction in drag using the PerformaBond.

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U.S. futures higher on Greece vote hopes; Dow up 0.45%
June 29, 2011 at 8:33 AM
 

Forex Pros – pros &ndash; U.S. stock futures pointed to a higher open on Wednesday, boosted by mounting expectations that Greece&rsquo;s parliament would pass an austerity plan needed to avoid a sovereign debt default.<br /><br />Dow Jones Industrial Average futures pointed to a gain of 0.45%, the S&amp;P 500 futures climbed 0.55%, while Nasdaq 100 futures indicated an increase of 0.5%.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />Ahead of the vote, Socialist deputy Thomas Robopoulos said that he would vote for the plan, backtracking from comments made last Friday, while opposition party member Elsa Papadimitrou also voiced her support.<br /><br />Shares in lenders were broadly higher in pre-market trade, tracking strong gains made by their European counterparts. <br /><br />Citigroup shares jumped 2.2%, shares in JP Morgan gained 1.5%, while U.S.-listed shares of National Bank of Greece rallied 6.2%.<br /><br />Separately, Bank of America agreed to pay USD8.5 billion to settle claims with investors who lost money on mortgage-backed securities bought before the U.S. housing collapse in 2008. BofA shares surged 5.5% following the news.<br /><br />Wholesale grocer BJ&rsquo;s Wholesale Club saw shares jump 4.7% after it agreed to be acquired by private-equity firm Leonard Green &amp; Partners for approximately USD2.8 billion.<br /><br />Shares in mattress and bedding company Sealy soared 12% after it said fiscal second quarter revenue rose 10.6% to USD321 million, outstripping expectations of USD295 million.<br /><br />On the downside, packaged food manufacturer General Mills saw shares slump 2.5% after it reported fiscal fourth quarter revenue totaled USD3.63 billion, falling short of market expectations for revenue of USD3.66 billion.<br /><br />Meanwhile, Dell shares were in focus after the company announced late Tuesday share buybacks of more than USD2 billion during the current fiscal year.<br /><br />Across the Atlantic, European stock markets rallied on optimism over Greece. The EURO STOXX 50 surged 1.9%, France&rsquo;s CAC 40 jumped 1.8%, Germany's DAX gained 1.85%, while Britain's FTSE 100 advanced 1.3%.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />During the Asian trading session, regional indices were broadly higher. Japan&rsquo;s Nikkei 225 index jumped 1.5%, while Australia&rsquo;s ASX/200 Index closed 1.2% higher.&nbsp; <br /><br />Later in the day, the U.S. was to publish industry data on pending home sales as well as a report on crude oil inventories.<br /><br />


Forexpros - Forex Pros offers a diverse set of professional tools for Forex, Futures and CFDs. These include real-time data streams, technical and fundamental analysis by in-house experts, and a widely used economic calendar and Forex News.

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Lady Gaga Speaks Out On The $5 Million Charity Lawsuit Against Her
June 29, 2011 at 8:29 AM
 

gagaLady Gaga's publicist issued a statement today addressing the charity-scam lawsuit pending against her.

A law firm in Michigan has accused Gaga of hoarding some profits from her "We Pray For Japan" tsunami relief bracelets.

Luckily for Gaga, the whole case sounds a little shady: how do these random Michigan lawyers know she's been siphoning cash, fans wondered.

And it doesn't help, frankly, that the spokesman for the lawsuit hails from 1-800-LAW-FIRM.

In any case, Gaga's camp says:

"This misguided lawsuit is without merit and unfortunately takes attention away from the kind deeds of the fans around the world who are supporting  the people of Japan," said rep Holly Shakoor. "The entire $5 donation made with the purchase of each bracelet is going to support the disaster relief.  No profit is being made on shipping costs. Sales tax charges were made in accordance with local legal requirements. Lady Gaga has personally pledged her own funds to this cause and continues to support the victims of the disaster." 

Meanwhile, Madonna -- whose plans for a Malawi girls school fell apart earlier this year -- announced today that she'll try her luck in the country again, this time with an orphanage.

Click here to see celebrity charity efforts gone horribly wrong >>

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No Cheap iPhone 4S This Year, Instead Apple Makes The iPhone 3GS Free, Says RBC (AAPL)
June 29, 2011 at 8:25 AM
 

wwdc 2009 iphone 3gs

Apple will not be releasing a cheaper iPhone 4S this year in conjunction with the iPhone 5, says Mike Abramsky at RBC in a note this morning.

Abramsky thinks the "baby" iPhone is coming in 2012, contradicting a report from Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore who said it was coming this year.

Instead, Apple will knock the price of the iPhone 3GS to $0, make the iPhone 4 $99, and keep the iPhone 5 at $199/$299, says Abramsky. The iPhone 3GS would cost $399 unlocked, and carriers would subsidize it down to $0.

According to a proprietary survey from RBC, consumers would scoop up more iPhones if they were $0. Certainly some people would, but would consumers really want an iPhone that's two years old? Aren't there newer free Android phones out there?

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Wimbledon Live: Federer, Djokovic Dominate First Sets In Huge Quarterfinal Day
June 29, 2011 at 8:20 AM
 

Rafael Nadal Wimbledon

Update 9:05

Signs of life from the underdogs here in the second sets.

Tomic gets a break then holds serve to take a commanding 4-1 lead.

Tsonga and Federer on serve, 4-3.

Update 8:45:

Federer serves it out to take the first set, 6-3.

Djokovic one-ups him to win his first set 6-2.

Well, that was easy. Just a half hour into these matches and the underdogs are looking hopeless.

Update 8:30:

Federer and Djokovic both got early breaks. Not the start the underdogs wanted.

Fed's up 4-1 with Tsonga serving. Djokovic is up 3-1 with Tomic serving.

Before:

Play has begun in London.

First up, we have Roger Federer taking on Jo-Willy Tsonga on Centre Court, and Novak Djokovic taking on Bernard Tomic on Court 1.

When the Federer/Tsonga match is over, Andy Murray takes on Feliciano Lopez.

And when Djokovic/Tomic is done, Rafael Nadal takes on true American patriot Mardy Fish.

Should be a fun morning and afternoon.

Here are a few storylines to keep an eye on:

  • Will Nadal’s foot hold up? Rafa’s uncle told ESPN that his nephew’s foot is “100 percent fine.” But he had an MRI yesterday, and we don’t really know how it will affect him until he’s on the court.
  • Will the Big Four make it back-to-back semifinals? It’d make for an absolutely crazy Friday in London, with Federer-Djokovic and Murray-Nadal.

One last thing, keep an eye on Tomic. We have four massive underdogs today. Three of them are known quantities. Tomic is not. And that makes him the best bet to pull an upset.

Check in for updates throughout the morning.

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Wimbledon Live: Federer, Djokovic Dominate First Sets In Huge Quarterfinal Day
June 29, 2011 at 8:20 AM
 

Rafael Nadal Wimbledon

Update 8:45:

Federer serves it out to take the first set, 6-3.

Djokovic one-ups him to win his first set 6-2.

Well, that was easy. Just a half hour into these matches and the underdogs are looking hopeless.

Update 8:30:

Federer and Djokovic both got early breaks. Not the start the underdogs wanted.

Fed's up 4-1 with Tsonga serving. Djokovic is up 3-1 with Tomic serving.

Before:

Play has begun in London.

First up, we have Roger Federer taking on Jo-Willy Tsonga on Centre Court, and Novak Djokovic taking on Bernard Tomic on Court 1.

When the Federer/Tsonga match is over, Andy Murray takes on Feliciano Lopez.

And when Djokovic/Tomic is done, Rafael Nadal takes on true American patriot Mardy Fish.

Should be a fun morning and afternoon.

Here are a few storylines to keep an eye on:

  • Will Nadal’s foot hold up? Rafa’s uncle told ESPN that his nephew’s foot is “100 percent fine.” But he had an MRI yesterday, and we don’t really know how it will affect him until he’s on the court.
  • Will the Big Four make it back-to-back semifinals? It’d make for an absolutely crazy Friday in London, with Federer-Djokovic and Murray-Nadal.

One last thing, keep an eye on Tomic. We have four massive underdogs today. Three of them are known quantities. Tomic is not. And that makes him the best bet to pull an upset.

Check in for updates throughout the morning.

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