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Did OECD leadership, under severe pressure from a financial crisis in Europe and a newly weakening economy in the US, release government oil inventories in part to please China? Was the IEA’s release of oil reserves a swap for the loosening of China’s capital reserves? (see: Wen Says China Is a Long-Term Investor in European Debt.) Generally here at Gregor.us I avoid exactly this type of geo-political speculation. But weekend remarks from China’s Wen Jiabao that Euroland bond markets would be well supported by China comes after a dramatic move downward in Brent crude—the global grade from which the developing world makes diesel. The dumping of light sweet oil into the Gulf Coast market had its greatest price effect on Brent crude—not West Texas Intermediate—as WTI remains landlocked in Cushing, Oklahoma. Indeed, it is inescapable that OECD policy markers understood that global diesel and gasoil markets, starved for light sweet oil, would be most affected by the release. A swap, in which OECD oil reserves are offered in exchange for China’s continuing reinvestment of capital reserves, is a big win-win (temporarily) for both Western and Asian economies. Unless, of course, it isn’t. Because the IEA’s Nobuo Tanaka has kicked off this week reminding markets his organization can release more oil if needed—thus signalling IEA’s new plan to keep the downward pressure on oil running full tilt—we should quantify how much oil IEA/OEC controls. | From the May 2011 IEA Oil Market Report, see: Total OECD Oil Stocks–the Government Controlled Column–in millions of barrels. 
Total government controlled oil stocks as of Q1 2011 amounted to 1558 million barrels. At the current release rate of 60 million barrels a month, western governments could continue this program for just over two years. The calculation also holds true for the US contribution of 30 million barrels a month from its own government reserves (SPR), which currently stands at 972.5 million barrels. But surely even the most casual observer understands such a program is not sustainable. The world cannot run on inventories. Indeed, among the problems I articulated in last week’s post, The Dark Side of the Oil Inventory Release, is the counterintuitive result that releases of oil inventories which are intended to dampen price contain a bullish, not a bearish, signal for the oil market. Furthermore, were the IEA in conjunction with its OECD participants to continue its oil inventory dumping into Autumn, the oil markets would then have to start pricing in a new reality: lower government stocks of oil. After all, government stocks of oil are intended to mitigate disruptive, geo-political events. If the OECD were to lower its reserves by 10%, then the market would be obligated to price in new risk. Regardless of whether China has agreed to more quickly marshal its capital reserves, in return for a temporary oil price knockdown, the current trajectory of its oil demand is largely governed by diesel, as domestic consumption roars. China’s extraordinary demand growth for diesel can be seen in various ways. Firstly, as a crunch that takes place at the crossroads of its transport and power sector, as was nicely articulated at FTAlphaville late last year. But principally, as a crunch that’s driven mainly by the heady growth in automobile and truck sales. In a post earlier this year, China Sign Post correctly noted that heavy truck sales more accurately signal China’s demand growth for oil. | From the article at China Sign Post see: Estimated additional diesel fuel demand from new heavy trucks sold in China, in million barrels per day. 
So is China smiling after the stock releases, of the past few days? West Texas Intermediate crude oil is currently back at the $95 level, right where it was trading prior to last week’s action. Brent crude oil, which fell as low as $102, is also back above $110. As Dave Cohen points out in a post earlier this week, Brace Yourselves For The Next Oil Price Shock, China’s demand for oil can almost entirely be understood through the lens of diesel. And, that diesel itself is unique. Never underestimate the role middle distillates play in driving crude oil prices. If diesel is in great demand, and clearly it will be given the Chinese scenarios laid out above, the “best” oil which provides the highest quantities of this product via the refining process is also in great demand. If there isn’t enough of it to go around, prices spike. Ethanol substitutes for gasoline. At large scales—just about anything bigger than the gas tank of Willie Nelson’s bus—nothing substitutes for diesel. Unfortunately, it does not appear OECD nations have been successful in getting the price of oil down below $100. There remains a justifiable suspicion that Saudi Arabia cannot supply the market either with extra light sweet oil, or with extra oil of any grade, for longer than a month or two. If China and Western countries have indeed made an arrangement to swap these oil price knock-downs for support of Western sovereign debt (at the margin), China would be advised to fill its own inventories quickly when these brief, five-to-seven day discounts on oil arrive, only to disappear. -Gregor Further Reading, updated 30 June 2011: Chinese Largesse Supports Euro, But For How Long?, The Wall Street Journal. Enter the dragon ‘to save the euro’, The Telegraph. Please follow Money Game on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story » See Also:
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There's obviously something about owning one's own dwelling that's primordial, super ceding logic and reason. Even after homeownership has destroyed the financial lives of millions of American families, love of it persists. A poll from NYT finds that for 9 out of 10 Americans, homeownership is seen as a key part of the American dream. 45% of respondents think the government should do MORE to help homeowners, while only 16% think the government should do less (this at a time, when government doing anything is seen as somewhat evil). The full poll results basically confirm that any real change to government housing policy is not going to happen. Homeownership is another 3rd rail that politicians can't touch. So Fannie, Freddy, mortgage interest tax deductions. It's all going to stick around. Please follow Business Insider on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story » See Also:
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Roughly three months ago, I wrote a post noting that Founder Labs was coming to NYC. Last night the first Founder Labs program in NYC wrapped up wtih the final presentations in USV's event space.
I have liked the idea of Founder Labs from the moment I heard about it. It sits between things like Pair Up and Startup Weekend and Y Combinator and TechStars. Founder Labs helps pair up three and four person teams, coaches them through ideation, all the way to a prototype. And they do this in a five week intensive class that meets on nights and weekends. The Gotham Gal and I were active mentors in the Founder Labs program, meeting with the teams once a week at space hosted by Google NYC, and also provided support for the NYC program along with a few other awesome people and companies. Founder Labs creator Shaherose Charania is a force of nature. She handpicks the participants in the program and helps to form the teams. I told the assembled group last night that the teams that are formed at Founder Labs are terrific. They are diverse, well balanced, and highly compatible. Each one has engineers, designers, and product talent on them. I have never seen a program create teams as well as Founder Labs does it. If you want to do a startup but are having a hard time finding a team to do one with, you should really consider Founder Labs. The next program is in SF from Aug 11 to Sept 22. But I am certain Shaherose and her team will be back in NYC before the end of the year. The first NYC program was so strong and there were are least two teams, maybe three that will come out of it with real traction. The winner last night was Smarketplaces, a project to put ebay/etsy style marketplaces on blogs like Disqus has done with comments. It has great promise. Authy was also quite strong with a user side solution for simple and easy two factor authentication. There were two interesting projects around alternative medicine services and helping people with food allergies navigate the world of food. We also saw new ideas in social music and daily deals. Regardless of whether all of these teams turn into startups and businesses (I think several will), all the participants will come away with an appreciation for how to get a startup off the ground, what makes a great team, and how to quickly find out if your idea is a good one. And because of that, Founder Labs is a winning formula. Read more posts on A VC » Please follow SAI on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story »
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I could really do with a lot more transparency from the Fed on why exactly it’s decided to almost double the maximum permitted debit interchange fee. The bank lobby certainly had a lot to do with it — but the bank lobby always said that the Fed was simply doing what it was forced to do under the Durbin amendment to Dodd-Frank, and that therefore Dodd-Frank itself had to be changed. When the Durbin amendment survived, however, suddenly the banks realized they had a Plan B — to lobby the Fed. And the Fed, it turns out, is even more susceptible to such lobbying efforts than Congress is. The sole dissent among the Fed governors was from Elizabeth Duke, who said that the new fee was too low. Read the rest of this article at Reuters. Please follow Business Insider on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story »
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USA Today told readers that: "economists say it could be several years before the nation's housing market recovers." This is probably reviewing to the views of economists who did not see the housing bubble. Economists who saw the housing bubble know that house prices are still about 10 percent above their trend level. This means that they do not expect the housing market to recover in terms of prices rising back to prior levels. They expect further price declines until the market returns to trend levels and then subsequent increases in step with the overall rate of inflation. It would be helpful to readers if USA Today did not rely exclusively on economists who managed to overlook one of the largest asset bubbles in the history of the world. Read more posts on CEPR » Please follow Politics on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story »
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Will Dominique Strauss-Kahn walk away from charges of rape on a procedural technicality? His lawyers hope so. MyFoxNY, citing a report in French newspaper Le Figaro, the lineup where DSK was picked out by the maid was tainted, as she had already been shown pictures of him prior to the event. Specifically, they claim that she saw DSK on TV and in a picture shown to her by the hotel manager, "prejudicing" the whole ID process. This sounds like pretty thin gruel to us, but then it's the lawyers' job to identify every tiny little bit of possible frailty in the structure of the prosecution's case, if only to have something for the appeal. Please follow Clusterstock on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story » See Also:
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Each month, we’ll be publishing trends and analyses from our proprietary dataset of more than 100,000 offers to the daily deal and investor communities. The Yipit Data Report launched yesterday to acclaim from Bloomberg, VentureBeat and The Wall Street Journal.
Subscribers of the report receive an in-depth analysis of the daily deal industry and its participants each month. Highlights from the May 2011 report include: - Industry Leaderboard: competitive detail and market size
- The Key Players: Deep dives into Groupon, LivingSocial, Travelzoo and OpenTable
- Merchant Behavior: are small businesses repeating or fleeing?
- Winners and Losers: breakout players and the deadpool
The Yipit Data Report is available in three packages: - Original: Full report on industry trends targeting daily deal and investor communities
- Silver: Full report plus a one-on-one analyst call with the report author
- Gold: Full report, plus analyst call, plus access to the complete raw data feed of every past daily deal offer
Customers of the Yipit Data Report include multi-billion hedge fund investors, most of the major daily deal companies and other industry analysts and participants. Subscribe online. For pricing and additional detail, visit: yipit.com/data Follow @YipitData on Twitter for the latest industry trends and analysis by team Yipit.
Read more posts on Yipit Blog » Please follow SAI on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story »
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The system of patent supported research gives drug companies like Genentech enormous incentive to mislead the public and government agencies, like the FDA, about the effectiveness of their drugs. Companies can lose billions of dollars if the FDA determines that a drug is not safe or effective and removes it from the market. Therefore economic theory predicts that companies will make misleading claims to try to prevent removal. If the government did not grant patent monopolies that allow companies to sell drugs at prices far above the free market level, this incentive would not exist. This fact should have been noted in reporting on the FDA's decision to stop authorizing the use of Avastian as a treatment for breast cancer. Read more posts on CEPR » Please follow Politics on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story »
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After days and days of intense newsflow and volatility, suddenly the air has been sucked out of everything just like that. Markets have corrected violently to being too quiet, all of the sudden. Equities are mostly higher, but not wildly. Greek short-term yields are a bit higher. Spanish short-term yields are a bit lower. Ireland is a bit narrower. S&P 500 futures are up a little bit, but haven't gone anywhere in hours. So for now, everyone's just sitting here waiting for the next all-caps headline. Shh.... Please follow Money Game on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story » See Also:
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The 1.3-billion Chinese consumer market has arrived, at least psychologically. A poll by Harris Interactive found that 79% of Chinese enjoy shopping for clothes, and 42% of Chinese bought clothing within the past week. By contrast only 39% of Americans enjoy shopping for clothes, and only 18% made a clothing purchase in the past week. Indians love shopping even more than China, with 92% enjoying clothes shopping and 44% making a purchase in the past week. Time's Brad Tuttle speculates on the thrill of having disposable income for the first time: [O]ne might theorize that, human nature being what it is, whenever something is new, it’s more exciting and enjoyable. What with the economies in China and India booming in recent years, for the first time ever huge populations have found themselves with that rarest of treasures: disposable income. And, as anyone who can recall his first paycheck can attest, it’s a lot more fun spending money the first time you’re able, rather than the tenth or 3,000th time. Disposable income is never more fun than when you’ve previously never had the option to dispose of it however you please. Please follow Money Game on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story » See Also:
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TMX Group and the London Stock Exchange (LSE) have called off their proposed merger after it became clear they would not secure enough votes from shareholders to approve the deal.
Based on votes already cast, TMX Group said a majority of its shareholders supported the merger, but the two-thirds majority needed to approve the tie-up would not be met.
In a separate statement, the LSE said its shareholders were overwhelmingly in favor of the deal.
‘We are clearly disappointed that, despite a majority of both LSE and TMX Group shareholders voting for our recommended merger, the two-thirds approval threshold for TMX Group shareholders was not met and hence the merger will now not proceed,’ comments Xavier Rolet, the LSE's CEO, in a statement.
TMX Group will now consider a takeover offer made by Maple Group, a collective of Canadian banks and pension funds, which was launched in a bid to stop TMX’s proposed merger with the LSE.
TMX Group will pay a C$10 mn ($10.4 mn) break fee to LSE. The Canadian exchange operator will pay an extra C$29 mn to the LSE if TMX Group is later acquired by Maple Group.
The collapse of the LSE/TMX deal is the latest exchange merger to fail, following NASDAQ’s pulled bid for NYSE and SGX’s blocked tie-up with the Australian Stock Exchange. [Article by Tim Human, IR magazine] Please follow Clusterstock on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story »
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Entrepreneurs come in all shapes and sizes and all have special challenges. But there are some commonalities we all share, like the need to improve ourselves and our knowledge daily and to find new ways of leveraging our potential to create great value with limited resources. Here are some tips and tools that should apply to many entrepreneurs and our hope is that you will use what you can and pass it on to others. Remember that sharing these resources helps every entrepreneur by creating more potential for us all. Got a tip or tool to share? Add it in the comment section, and add to the value we all share. Online Resources 40 things holding up your business success. Check this simple check list of some of the worst habits plaguing entrepreneurs. If you find yourself here no worries. This is a great reminder of what you have to work on. Check off some of these issues as you address them, and we bet you’ll see a differencer in your small business success. New Biz Blogger Where to find wholesale products online. If you run an online store as part of your entrepreneurial enterprise, finding products may be a challenge. Fortunately some simple solutions exist that can make your search for products a much more managable affair. Check out the post and video at the link to learn more about the opportunities available for you. MyWifeQuitHerJob.com How to make money from your business blog. You’ve probably heard plenty of people talking about it. Monetize your blog or other Web presence and your set. How hard could it be? Well, harder than you might think actually and here’s a list of both things you may want to try and others the author wouldn’t recommend. Traffic Generation Cafe Self-development Simple tips to stay productive. How do successful entrepreneurs and other leaders stay productive? Tap into their secrets to find a way to fuel your own entrepreneurial success. It may be simpler than you think to power yourself up for the challenge ahead. See if the suggestions of some of these folks resound with you. Inc.com Making the best of bad situations. You may not be having as bad a day as Penelope. Her blog post tells the story of hiding out while on the lamb all the while scheduling a meeting with a potential investor for her latest entrepreneurial adventure. Reading about Penelope’s problems may make your own seem small, but being able to “reframe” any situation is a key entrepreneurial skill. Can you make lemons out of lemonade? It wouldn’t hurt to try. Penelope Trunk Customer Relations 150 tips for dealing with difficult customers. Whether we like it or not, things will occasionally go badly in any small business and though there may be many challenges to face, dealing with a difficult cstomer may be amongthe worst. Fortunate then that this list has been assembled of suggestions from a wide range of le business leaders on how to handled these troubles when they arise in your business. Carol Roth Boosting Sales Ideas for overcoming sales objections. Some hardcore sales types spend some time in this roundtable offered as a free podcast hashing out how to get past the objections your customer or client may have to saying yes to your product or service. As entrepreneurs, we are all essentially our companies first salesmen. Why not learn from the best about how getting your customer to say yes? The Pipeline Better sales through print PR. Of course, there are many opportunities to boost sales through marketing via online resources, but entrepreneur Sarah Shaw reminds us that, especially in some industries, PR via print, especially magazines, may also be critical. Learning how and where to pitch your business or product will take some practice, but here is a place to start. The entreprenette Gazette From Small Business TrendsTips and Tools for Entrepreneurs Read more posts on Small Business Trends » Please follow War Room on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story »
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I strongly believe that the marketing and distribution of auction-rate securities was the single greatest scam perpetrated on investors by Wall Street. While a full forty months have passed since the ARS market failed that fateful day in February 2008, approximately $100 billion of the original $330 billion ARS remain frozen. Many thousands of investors continue to wonder if they will ever get a full return of their cash locked up in these supposed ‘cash-alternative’, ‘cash-surrogate’, ‘totally liquid’, ‘as good as cash’, ‘money market type’ instruments. Forty plus months. $100 billion. You think you have stress. Place yourself in the position of these investors. Sense on Cents continues to bang the drum for ARS investors and now we witness two more ‘wins’ but one real ‘disappointment’ on the ARS front. Let’s navigate. Last we heard from the crowd at Raymond James, they were claiming they had a ‘meritorious defense’ in their marketing and distribution of auction-rate securities. Well, it would now appear that RJ’s meritorious defense was not all that meritorious. How so, the Associated Press and Forbes report, Raymond James Settles Charges for Up to $350 Million, Raymond James & Associates Inc. will pay up to $350 million to settle state and federal charges that it lied to clients about auction-rate securities, telling them the investments were as safe as cash before the credit crisis made the bonds impossible to sell. The investment management and brokerage company said Wednesday that it will rebuy all of the outstanding bonds for face value – about $350 million, according to officials with Securities and Exchange Commission. The company did not admit or deny the charges. Raymond James, based in St. Petersburg, Fla., said the cost will be closer to $280 million. The settlement will force it to take a pretax charge of about $50 million in the third fiscal quarter ending June 30, the company said. Raymond James also will pay fines to the states totaling $1.75 million. The SEC said Raymond James lied to its clients about the investments, calling them “safe, liquid alternatives” to money-market funds and other investments that can be converted into cash quickly and easily. The settlement also resolves separate charges brought by state securities regulators in Florida, Texas, Indiana, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and South Carolina, the North American Securities Administrators Association said in a statement. That group said there are about $300 million of the bonds still in clients’ hands. This news is outstanding for all those who had purchased ARS via Raymond James and maintained exposure to the firm. Your nightmare will soon be over. While those ARS investors who had purchased these securities from Morgan Keegan will soon also be made whole, a fraud claim against Morgan Keegan was dismissed. The Wall Street Journal highlights the good news in writing, Morgan Keegan to Repurchase Remaining ARS to END $2B Program, Morgan Keegan said it will repurchase all remaining auction-rate securities sold by the firm and held by retail investors, including securities issued to debt-laden Jefferson County, Ala., a move that will conclude a program initiated in early 2009. The company, a unit of Regions Financial Corp. (RF), said the purchases would “restore liquidity to retail investors who had purchased approximately $2 billion of auction-rate securities through the firm.” While ARS investors clearly want this nightmare over, I remain concerned that the business practices utilized in the distribution of these securities have never received their proper adjudication. I believe the marketing and distribution of ARS rose to the level of fraud. Who else held that opinion? U.S. District Judge in New York Lawrence M. McKenna. He offered as much in early 2009. I highlighted that in writing, “Before Any Fraud Ensued”, Let's review what the judge in this case has to say: "Given that plaintiffs have availed themselves of the relief provided for in the regulatory agreement, plaintiffs now cannot allege out-of-pocket damages," McKenna ruled yesterday. The investors "have already been returned to the position they were in before they purchased the ARS and before any fraud ensued." While I would assume that those investors who purchased the ARS from Morgan Keegan are happy to have this nightmare over, the fact is I believe real and total justice has been denied. Bloomberg Businessweek highlights this reality in writing, Judge Rejects SEC Claim That Morgan Keegan Misled ARS Investors, A U.S. judge rejected Securities and Exchange Commission claims that Regions Financial Corp.'s Morgan Keegan brokerage unit misled investors about $2.2 billion in auction-rate securities before the market for the instruments collapsed in 2008. "The SEC has not introduced any evidence to show that Morgan Keegan instituted a companywide policy encouraging its brokers to misrepresent ARS liquidity risks," U.S. District Judge William S. Duffey Jr. said today in a summary judgment in Atlanta. The "failure to predict the market does not amount to securities fraud." The SEC sued Morgan Keegan in July 2009, claiming it encouraged brokers to push the debt before the $330 billion market froze in February 2008, and customers weren't told about the growing risk the securities could become difficult to sell. Since then, dozens of banks have returned billions of dollars to harmed investors. John Nester, an SEC spokesman, said the agency is considering whether to appeal. A phone call after normal business hours to Tim Deighton, a spokesman for Birmingham, Alabama-based Regions, wasn't immediately returned. Federal and state regulators have sanctioned banks for selling auction-rate securities as safe, cash-like investments. The instruments are typically municipal bonds, corporate bonds and preferred stocks whose rates of return are periodically reset through an auction. The SEC cited testimony of four customers claiming they were misled by Morgan Keegan brokers who allegedly said ARS were "cash equivalents" and "completely liquid," according to the judgment. Duffey faulted the agency for arguing those investors' claims were true for others. "The SEC is attempting to bootstrap the investor-specific impact of the misrepresentations alleged by four individual investors as a grounds to seek relief for a whole class of investors without any evidence that the other investors received similar oral misrepresentations," Duffey said in the judgment. One may wonder if Judge Duffey is a descendant of Rip van Winkle. I have yet to hear from any single individual investor involved in the ARS web who was not pitched these securities in such a fashion. How hard did Duffey probe? How badly did he care to find out the real truth? Has he been sleeping for the last 40 months? Anybody connected to the Raymond James and/or Morgan Keegan cases, we would love to hear from you. $230 billion down….$100 billion or so to go. Larry Doyle Sense on Cents Related Commentary
Sense on Cents/Auction-Rate Securities Isn't it time to subscribe to all my work via e-mail, an RSS feed, on Twitter orFacebook? Please get your friends and colleagues to do the same. Thanks!! I have no affiliation or business interest with any entity referenced in this commentary. The opinions expressed are my own. I am a proponent of real transparency within our markets so that investor confidence and investor protection can be achieved. Read more posts on Sense on Cents » Please follow Clusterstock on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story »
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Yesterday UK Foreign Secretary William Hague became the first Western leader to confirm nuclear tests in Iran. If that weren't scary enough, Saudi officials make it clear that they would be forced to develop or buy their own weapon. Prince Turk al-Faisal told senior NATO officials that the existence of a Iranian nuke "would compel Saudi Arabia … to pursue policies which could lead to untold and possibly dramatic consequences." A senior Saudi official told the Guardian: "We cannot live in a situation where Iran has nuclear weapons and we don't. It's as simple as that. If Iran develops a nuclear weapon, that will be unacceptable to us and we will have to follow suit." Please follow Business Insider on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story » See Also:
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That would seem to be the implication of his quote in an NYT article: "The American people know tax hikes destroy jobs,, .... They also know Washington has been on a spending binge for many years, and they will only tolerate a debt-limit increase if we stop it." Actually, the economy was creating 3 million jobs a year in the late 90s, when the higher Clinton era tax rates were in effect. This means that unless the memory of the American people is as bad as Mr. Boehner's memory, they could not know that "tax hikes destroy jobs," since it is not true. (It is impossible to know something that is not true.) This error would seem to qualify as a "gaffe," like when then Senator Obama referred to voters in Pennsylvania being bitter and clinging to guns and religion in response to bad economic times. It would have been appropriate for the NYT to press Mr. Boehner on whether he is really ignorant of the economy's job growth record in the 90s or whether he is deliberately saying things that he knows not to be true. The "spending binge" presumably refers to the increases in spending that began when President Bush took office. (Spending as a share of GDP fell substantially during the Bush presidency.) Most of the increase in spending was on the military. If the Republicans were to support reversing this increase in military spending then they would likely enjoy wide bi-partisan support. Read more posts on CEPR » Please follow Politics on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story »
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Forex Pros – pros – European stock markets were higher on Thursday, as shares in the financial sector extended gains from the previous session as Greece prepared for a second vote on austerity measures designed to prevent a sovereign debt default.<br /><br />During European morning trade, the EURO STOXX 50 gained 0.45%, France’s CAC 40 edged 0.35% higher, while Germany's DAX 30 advanced 0.2%. <br /><br />Greek lawmakers were due to vote later in the day on the implementation of different parts of a EUR28.4 billion, five-year austerity package, paving the way for the country to receive further bailout loans needed to avoid a debt default. <br /><br />Shares in lenders were broadly higher as concerns eased that Greece’s debt woes would spread to the region’s banking system.<br /><br />Europe’s largest retail lender BNP Paribas saw shares climb 1.5%, Deutsche Bank gained 1.3%, while Spain’s Banco Santander and Italy’s Intesa Sanpaolo advanced 1.35% each.<br /><br />Shares in network-service provider Alcatel-Lucent jumped 2.7% after UBS raised its rating on the stock to ‘buy’ from ‘neutral’.<br /><br />In London, the FTSE 100 advanced 0.75% as shares in Lloyds Banking Group surged after the lender announced it would cut 15,000 jobs and withdraw operations from more than 15 of its overseas units in order to save GBP1.5 billion. <br /><br />Lloyds shares rallied 9.5% following the announcement, while rivals Royal Bank of Scotland saw shares jump 4.7% and Barclays advanced 1.8%. <br /><br />Meanwhile, shares in London Stock Exchange Group climbed 6.2% after the proposed merger of the London and Toronto exchanges did not get shareholder approval. <br /><br />UBS added the company to its mergers and acquisition watch list, saying the London Exchange may now become a bid target. <br /><br />Shares in oil producer BG Group jumped 4.9% after it announced that it was doubling reserve estimates for oil in its Santos Basin in Brazil.<br /><br />The outlook for U.S. equity markets was upbeat. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures pointed to a gain of 0.25%, S&P 500 futures advanced 0.23%, while the Nasdaq 100 futures edged 0.24% higher. <br /><br />Later in the day, the U.S. was to publish its weekly government report on initial jobless claims, as well as data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region.<br /><br />
Forexpros - Forex Pros offers a diverse set of professional tools for Forex, Futures and CFDs. These include real-time data streams, technical and fundamental analysis by in-house experts, and a widely used economic calendar and Forex News.Read more posts on Forex Pros » Please follow Money Game on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story »
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The world's biggest security concern... is you. Forbes quotes security expert Mark Rasch as saying "There's no device known to mankind that will prevent people from being idiots." Most successful hacking attacks are due to so-called social engineering, meaning exploiting human, not computer error. At the end of the day, many times, it's our own stupidity or carelessness that leaves us vulnerable. Don't Miss: You Will Never Click A Banner Ad → Please follow SAI on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story » See Also:
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Germany just booked its 24th straight month of falling unemployment. Think about that: An aging Western nation, not thought of as being on the vanguard of high technology right now, without an abundance of natural resources, in the midst of an existential crisis all around it, just keeps cranking out the jobs. According to Bloomberg, the official unemployment rate fell to 7%, once again, hitting a new post-reunification record. A seasonally-adjusted drop of 8,000 jobs was better than the drop of 17,000 jobs economists had predicted. And of course, this is what makes the anti-Merkel hatred even more interesting. The booming economy and lack of joblessness hasn't helped her one bit, confounding anyone who thinks that all citizens care about is jobs and the economy. Please follow Money Game on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story » See Also:
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Based on his deep experience in Hong Kong, Marc Faber — investment analyst and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report — is concerned about investing hype in China. In a recent Bloomberg interview, he indicates that fraud is widespread, and that foreigners and likely to take the brunt of the pending fallout. Three of his key thoughts are paraphrased below and the clip itself follows. - Proliferation of fraud on a massive scale, as we have seen with Chinese companies, is symptomatic of a bubble or a mania… especially when it comes to US investors, because the general public doesn’t really understand China.
- The Mainland Chinese are more careful about cheating in Hong Kong, because – as Faber describes in his own colorful way — they feel a more tangible threat of retribution from misbehavior in Hong Kong.
- Faber believes that the people making the real money in China are the locals, and that it’s much more difficult for foreign investors to become savvy about the market… they are more likely to get fleeced.
Lastly, Faber also covers some of his current thoughts on precious metals. You can view the Bloomberg interview below, which came to our attention via a Bearish News post on how Marc Faber still likes gold and silver. Marc Faber on the Massive Proliferation of Fraud in China originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning provides 400,000+ readers economic news, market analysis, and contrarian investment ideas. The Daily Reckoning features articles by Addison Wiggin author of Empire of Debt and Bill Bonner author of Financial Reckoning Day and The Idea of America. Read more posts on The Daily Reckoning » Please follow Money Game on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story » See Also:
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By John Helmer, Moscow Yesterday's report on the Guinean President's ultimatum to Rusal to use or lose the giant Dian-Dian bauxite deposit has drawn fresh sources with additional information, confirming the deterioration in Rusal's hold on its concession agreement. According to Vladislav Soloviev, Oleg Deripaska's first deputy at Rusal headquarters in Moscow, his company is currently in talks with the Government of Guinea on terms for developing Dian-Dian. "We are ready to start to develop the deposit, but we need to solve the problems with infrastructure and agree on railroad use with the government," Soloviev is reported as saying.
Responding from Conakry, the Guinean capital, industry and government sources say that Rusal has submitted a Dian-Dian project proposal, but that it has been rejected. According to the Guinean government, no comprehensive feasibility study from Rusal on Dian-Dian has been submitted yet, and no agreement on the project plan. According to initial calculations by the government, the capital cost of the bauxite mine ought to be about $250 million. Required by Rusal's 20-year concession agreement, signed in 2006 with the government in Conakry, a new alumina refinery should be built to process at least part of bauxite dug out of the mine; the capital cost of the refinery is estimated by the Guinean government at about $1.5 billion. To transport the bauxite and alumina to market, the government's terms for Rusal are similar to those required for Rio Tinto and other mine developers in Guinea – they should build a freight-standard railroad – estimated at $200 million – and a new port loading terminal; that last bill should cost about $100 million. Total government projection for Rusal's Dian-Dian project capex – more than $2 billion. Rusal's detailed references to the Dian-Dian project plans in its Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing prospectus of January 2010 revealed two project cost estimates – one for the bauxite mine, and another for the alumina refinery. "Dian-Dian is a greenfield project to be constructed in Guinea. The studies to date have identified Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources compliant with the JORC Code of 472.1 Mt with 47.7% Al2O3 and 1.5% silica. The expected volume of bauxite mined, subject to confirmation by additional studies is 13.1 Mtpa (for alumina production) and 10 Mtpa (for export). A feasibility study has been prepared by international consultants. The capital expenditure of the mining aspects of the project has been estimated at US$425 m, which would include the development of the mine and mine related infrastructure." The prospectus also acknowledges the Dian-Dian alumina refinery is a much more expensive proposition. This, said Rusal, "is a greenfield alumina refinery project which is planned for construction in Guinea, West Africa. A detailed feasibility study has been completed for a 5.1 Mtpa alumina refinery including a power plant, railway, port and other associated infrastructure. First alumina is currently scheduled for 2015. The CAPEX for this project, including development of the bauxite mine, is estimated at US$5,566 million, of which US$42 million had been spent as of 30 June 2009." Subtracting the mine capex from the grand total of $5.566 million indicates that the alumina project should cost about $5 billion. The prospectus data tables also suggest that counting measured, indicated and inferred bauxite in the ground, Dian-Dian holds 689 million tonnes; that is 38% of Rusal's total bauxite reserves and resources worldwide. Counting 5.1 million tonnes of projected annual alumina output from Dian-Dian, that represents 65% more than the 7.8 million tonnes of alumina the company turned out last year from refineries in Russia, Ukraine and elsewhere. But Rusal has no current intention of producing any alumina at Dian-Dian, and no intention for the foreseeable future of producing the prospectus target of 23 million tonnes of bauxite per year. The sources in Conakry say that in the recent negotiations Rusal proposed only to develop the bauxite mine at an initial production rate of 300,000 tonnes, exporting it all, and falling far short of the required 13-million tonne feed rate required for the refinery. So, no bauxite, no refinery. The Rusal proposal also requested permission from the government to use the current railroad owned by Compagnie des Bauxites de Guinee (CBG), and the port loading complex also owned by CBG at Kamsar. CBG is half owned by the government, half by a partnership of Alcoa of the US and Rio Tinto of the UK. By restricting the project this way, the Guineans believe Rusal is hoping to spend no more than $250 million on the Dian-Dian mine, and keep most of the bauxite in the ground. "In other words," one of the sources added, confirming the calculations and the details of Rusal's Dian-Dian proposal, "instead of building the large refinery they are contractually obligated to build, they want to waste these mega reserves by exporting 300,000 tonnes per annum, and grow to 5 million tonnes over a few years." Another source says: "This is a waste of a major bauxite resource that could feed multiple refineries while exporting as much bauxite as CBG, thus transforming the country’s revenue profile. They are telling Guinea they will operate Dian-Dian at less than 10% of capacity so no one else can have it. They were laughed out of the room." Read more posts on Dances With Bears » Please follow Europe on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story »
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THE UK IS being hit by one of the worst strikes in recent memory as services including schools, job centres and courts are hit. Hundreds of thousands of public sector workers are protesting over pension reforms. The Public and Commercial Services Union (PCS) and three teaching unions are carrying out a 24-hour strike. As well as pickets across the country, union leaders and activists will hold a march and rally in central London where all police leave has been cancelled, BBC News reports. At issue is the government’s proposed reforms to public sector pensions which it argues are “fair to taxpayers” and the public sector. However, the public sector representatives say the reforms will mean working longer and contributing more of their salary for less of a pension when their members retire. Talks between the two parties are ongoing but the strike has been called following a vote by members of the PCS. Government minister Francis Maude and the general secretary of the PCS, Mark Serwotka outlined their conflicting arguments on BBC Radio 4′s Today programme this morning. The Guardian reports that a third of schools are expected to close and two-thirds of universities have cancelled lectures. Social welfare benefits will go unpaid, court cases will be postponed and airports are bracing themselves for backlogs at immigration. Travellers to the UK have been warned to expect delays with the strikes by border agency staff meaning ports and airports will be stretched. Coastguards, police support workers, and driving test examiners will also be among some of the 250,000 members of the PCS who will walkout. The government says that one in five public sector workers in the UK, of which there are around half a million, will be on strike but says the majority of services will remain open. The strike does not have much support politically with the government as well as the opposition Labour party condemning the action although Labour commented that the government has mishandled negotiations with unions, BBC News adds. You can follow coverage of the strikes on BBC News, The Guardian, and The Telegraph. Please follow Europe on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story » See Also:
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Vacation rental company HomeAway went public yesterday; despite being priced at the top of the range it still popped 50% and stayed basically there for the rest of the day. Some will say that it's more sign of a bubble. Some will say that the IPO was underpriced. In any case, here's what yesterday looked like, courtesy Yahoo Finance: 
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People have this misconception about rare earth metals that only China has them, and that its China's lockdown on them that makes them such a good investment/bet going forward, especially since so many modern technologies rely on them. But part of that is wrong. Lots of places around the world have rare earth metals. It's just that only China produces them, because it's generally disregarded the safety/environmental aspects of them. The NYT reports that one of the biggest names in the space -- Australia's Lynas -- was just halted in Sydney trading, as an operation in Malaysia has come under government scrutiny, and will require engineering changes. But the construction and design may have serious flaws, according to the engineers, who also provided memos, e-mail messages and photos from Lynas and its contractors. The engineers said they felt a professional duty to voice their safety concerns, but insisted on anonymity to avoid the risk of becoming industry outcasts. The problems they detail include structural cracks, air pockets and leaks in many of the concrete shells for 70 containment tanks, some of which are larger than double-decker buses. Ore mined deep in the Australian desert and shipped to Malaysia would be mixed with powerful acids to make a slightly radioactive slurry that would be pumped through the tanks, with operating temperatures of about 200 degrees Fahrenheit. So you see, it's not that rare earths are are. It's that they're really messy and hazardous (you can tell this, by the way, to any obnoxious Prius owner you come across). As long as China is more lax about this stuff than anywhere else, China will rule the rare earth world. 
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 To look good on the outside, you need to feel good inside too. And you can start with keeping yourself happy with some sparkling bodice. Keeping that in mind,CrystalSkins and Gossard have crafted a unique, one-off crystal embellished bra. Even though the concept is not that new, it is the first known bodice to be encrusted with Swarovski Elements. The UK based service in collaboration with One Mega Management had Supermodel Elle Liberachi to shot with eth.
This bedazzling elegant piece of lingerie was embellished by hand with over 6000 crystals and pearls and took over 3 weeks to create. Currently, the piece is not on sale. This post originally appeared at Luxurylaunches. Please follow The Life on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story »
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More from the contrarian view on China. And this would certainly light a fire under the global economy. Citic, CIC and Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co. say the Shanghai Composite is due for a serious second half rally as expectations of a hard landing have become too pervasive (via China Daily): “The Shanghai Composite Index’s 6.2 percent retreat this quarter sent the gauge to 11.6 times estimated profit, data compiled by Bloomberg show. It took the global financial crisis and a decline in China’s growth rate to a seven-year low of 6.8 percent to push valuations this low in November 2008. The Shanghai gauge rebounded 49 percent in the next six months. CITIC Securities Co and China International Capital Corp, which predicted the drop this quarter, say the market will rally in the second half as inflation peaks and the government sustains the economic expansion by easing credit. Even Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who says China may face a “hard landing” after 2013, expects growth of at least 8.8 percent in 2011 and 2012. “The market has basically priced in a very pessimistic outlook for the economy,” said Ling Peng, chief strategist at Shanghai-based Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co, ranked China’s most influential research provider by New Fortune magazine last year. “A hard landing of the economy is very unlikely,” he said, forecasting that the Shanghai index will advance as much as 15 percent by the end of the year to about 3150. …CITIC Securities recommended shares of property developers and cement companies because of the government’s housing measures. China’s biggest brokerage, which turned “positive” on the nation’s stocks in a June 20 report after being “cautious” since April, has a six-month target of 3500 for the Shanghai index.” 3500 is approximately a 30% rally from here and would represent the highest levels since the middle of 2009 after the Shanghai’s incredible 100%+ rally off the 2008 lows. Of course, this index has tended to lead other equity markets as China’s economy remains the single most important leg in the global economic chair. Although I’ve been bullish just recently I have to think the macro evidence leads one to conclude that you should probably take the under on 3500. Range bound is probably more like it. And that means my approach won’t change much. This is still a traders market. 
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Now that Greece has been temporarily 'saved', the focus might start to shift to the unresolved and equally serious issue of the US debt limit. Unfortunately, the omens on this front still look gloomy, with President Obama yesterday chastising the Republicans for their lack of concern for children and the elderly in their negotiations over the deficit. The Democrats want tax increases to form part of the package to reduce America's fiscal largesse, whereas the GOP is after meaningful cuts in entitlements and in Medicare payments to the elderly. The Republicans continue to argue that a bill which both lifts the debt ceiling and raises taxes will not pass through Congress. Most alarming is the position of a number of new Congressmen aligned to the Tea Party movement who have dismissed the urgency of raising the debt ceiling by August 2nd. Two days ago, a senior Republican who participated in the bipartisan deficit negotiations with Vice-President Biden stated that it was increasingly likely that Republicans in the House will not act to raise the debt limit by the August 2nd deadline unless the Democrats agree to major changes in entitlements. Read the rest of the article US debt-limit talks descend into acrimony Read more posts on ForexCrunch » Please follow Money Game on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story »
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It's nothing too dramatic anywhere, but the Greek bailout euphoria continues, as markets head for their 4th straight day of gains. Germany is up 0.25%. France is up 0.3%. Italy is up 0.2%. US futures are up modestly as well. Meanwhile, in Asia, note that the Nikkei is making another run towards the 10,000 level. Please follow Money Game on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story » See Also:
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One of the more innovative and popular recent additions to the fast growing ETP lineup is the VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN (XIV), an exchange-traded note that offers daily inverse exposure to an index comprised of short-term VIX futures contracts. XIV has become popular as a tool for exploiting the nuances of an upward-sloping futures curve, essentially reversing contango-related headwinds and putting them at the backs of investors [see Highlighting Inverse VIX ETNs]. Thanks in part to tremendous gains recorded in recent months, XIV has quickly taken in more than $250 million in assets–a tremendous pace of growth for such a young ETP. In recent days, there’s been a bit of confusion as to where some of that money went. Split Snafus? Effective June 27, XIV underwent a 10-for-one split whereby every share of XIV was turned into ten shares. The issue of new shares corresponded with a reduction in the per share price; the number of shares outstanding was essentially multiplied by 10 while the per share price was divided by 10. Share splits are routine occurrences, both among common stocks and ETFs. But some investors in certain brokerage accounts may have noticed some unusual activity surrounding the XIV split [see all the Volatility ETPs here]. Within some brokerage accounts, the price of the ETF was reduced in accordance with the split procedure, but there was no corresponding increase in the number of shares held. Scottrade, for example, was still showing pre-split figures as of Thursday morning–meaning that the value of customers’ holdings in XIV seemed to drop precipitously over the past few sessions. A Scottrade customer with 100 shares of XIV saw the position worth about $15,854 at the close of trading on Friday. When the opening bell rang on Monday, that same position was suddenly worth about $1,583–an apparent loss of about 90%. The price dropped, but the number of shares remained constant. According to Scottrade, the big dip occurred as a result of the technicalities surrounding the manner in which the split was carried out. The explanation we received is that the XIV split was treated as a stock dividend, with each shareholder receiving nine additional shares. Scottrade doesn’t post dividends on foreign stocks (which, apparently, includes XIV in their mind) until they are received from the paying company; therefore, there can be a delay of several days between the split date and the time the proceeds show up in the customer account. Broker Nuances So for the hypothetical Scottrade account holder who finished last week with 100 shares and started this week with 100 considerably cheaper shares, the additional 900 shares are coming eventually. You’re not getting cheated out of 90% of your XIV holdings. If you were planning to keep your XIV position open for a while, this might not be a big deal. However, for those who were hoping to close out the position–perhaps locking in some of the 11% gains booked between Monday’s open and Wednesday’s close–the lack of shares in the account could have posed a problem [Volatility ETN Investing 101]. It should be noted that the disappearing act was far beyond the control of the ETN issuers (XIV is marketed by VelocityShares). Rather, the confusion was a result of the policies in place at certain brokerages. And it should be noted that not all firms handled XIV’s 10-for-1 split as Scottrade did; TD Ameritrade accounts showed the increased number of shares of XIV in client accounts shortly after the split. TD clients with 100 shares of XIV on Friday afternoon had 1,000 shares when they logged in Monday morning. ETPs have unfairly received some bad publicity on multiple occasions in recent years [see Why An ETF Can't Collapse]. On the surface, XIV’s sudden price drop might seem like another opportunity to bash the exchange-traded structure. But it’s not. The delays in recognizing the full effect of the split have nothing to do with the issuing institution. So if you’re upset that your XIV shares are nowhere to be found, call Scottrade–not the ETN issuer. [For more ETF news sign up for our free ETF newsletter.] Disclosure: Long XIV. Click here to read the original article on ETFdb.com.
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With the Greek situation under control for the time being, eyes are likely to once again focus on the United States and its economic woes. The U.S. still has intolerably high unemployment, weak growth prospects, and continued uncertainty over the debt ceiling to boot. Thanks to these issues, many investors have looked to the small but important production side of the economy to help boost the U.S. out of its malaise. For those who track this corner and are putting their chips on a manufacturing led recovery, today’s data release of the Chicago PMI survey could help to set the record straight heading into the third quarter. The Chicago PMI is a popular economic indicator that, according to Bloomberg, compiles a survey and a composite diffusion index of business conditions in the Chicago area. While the survey doesn’t exclusively focus on manufacturing firms, many believe that the reading analyzes a mix of companies that is very representative of the American economy, helping to give clues on the overall economic picture. Furthermore, since the Chicago PMI is generally released just before the broader ISM Manufacturing survey, many analysts use the Chicago PMI as a preview of this important data release as well [Nine Twists On Sector ETF Investing]. The consensus analyst estimate suggests that the reading will drop from its prior level of 56.6 to 53.0, still indicating an economic expansion but one at an increasingly slow pace (anything over 50 is an expansion). Furthermore, it should be noted that the analyst range stretches from about 56.0 all the way down to 49.5, suggesting that all of those tracking this indicator are anticipating a slowdown from last month’s levels. Even more troubling is the pace of the drop over the past few months; after hitting a multi-year high of just above 70 in February, the reading has fallen precipitously including an 11 point plunge for the May reading. Thanks to this pace of declines, this month could be key for either extending the trend down towards contraction territory, or reversing the recent gloom and further adding to economic expansion [Who Else Wants Ex-Sector ETFs?]. Due to this important data release and the light that it will shed on tomorrow’s ISM Manufacturing survey, investors should look for the Vanguard Industrials ETF (VIS) to be in focus during today’s trading session. This fund tracks the MSCI US Investable Market Industrials 25/50 Index which consists of stocks of large, medium, and small U.S. companies in the industrials sector. This sector is made up of companies whose businesses are dominated by one of the following activities: the manufacture and distribution of capital goods, the provision of commercial services and supplies, or the provision of transportation services. The fund puts a large amount of assets in blue chip companies such as GE, United Technologies, and Caterpillar, although VIS does hold about 370 companies in total [see more on VIS's fact sheet]. While the economy remains weak, VIS has managed to perform well over the past few weeks, gaining over 2.1% in the previous two week period. However, the fund has experienced a rough stretch before that, and is down 2.2% over the past four weeks and is down slightly over the past quarter. Should the Chicago PMI show a modest decline or even beat expectations and rise about its previous reading, investors will likely take this as a good sign for tomorrow’s ISM Manufacturing survey and will probably buy up VIS in the process. If, however, investors see a continued drop in the figure or a slump into contraction territory, look for this popular Vanguard product to slump on the day, ending the quarter on a low note [see more charts of VIS here]. [For more ETF ideas sign up for our free ETF newsletter.] Disclosure: No positions at time of writing. Click here to read the original article on ETFdb.com.
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Gree, the leader in mobile gaming in Japan, wants 1 billion users, its CEO told Reuters. And it wants to rival Facebook. Here's why that's not completely insane. First of all, though you may not have heard of it, Gree is pretty huge. It's a leader in Japan in mobile, social games, in the country that basically invented sophisticated mobile phones and social gaming. It's publicly traded, with a market cap around $3 billion. So this isn't some rinky-dink startup. Second of all, Gree is basically at the sweet spot of where everything is going right now. It's about mobile, social and gaming. Gaming is 50% of the time spent on Facebook. Mobile is the future of social networking (and everything else). That social networking could be headed in that direction seems much less far-fetched than the proposition that Google could defeat Facebook with a carbon copy. Don't Miss: 10 Asian Tech Companies Putting Us To Shame → Please follow SAI on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story » See Also:
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The Value of Constraints The beauty of Twitter is that a tweet can only be 140 characters long. With that as a constraint, you end up seeing some amazingly creative messages on Twitter that manage to convey both a specific tone and a lot of content — in close quarters! The same logic can apply to business more generally. - If you give your team two hours to solve a complex problem, you’ll be amazed at how far they can get with it, even if they don’t have enough time to do thorough research
- If you have to balance your budget every year, you’ll be amazed at the clarity of decision-making you find yourself with (Wonder why Congress can’t figure out how to spend less money? They don’t have to!)
- If you only have 5 minutes to make a presentation to your executive team on a complex topic, you’ll be amazed at how quickly you can figure our your main three points, and stick to them
It’s very simple – constraints force economy and clarify objectives. If you MUST make hard choices, you do. If you HAVE TO set priorities, you do. If you have to streamline your thinking, you do. Of course, you may not be able to convey the subtleties and richness of character of War and Peace in 140 characters, but that doesn’t mean there’s no value to constraints. Try out one of the above exercises sometime and see what you get. Read more posts on Only Once » Please follow War Room on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story »
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Forex Pros – pros – Asian stock markets were broadly higher on Thursday, as market sentiment was boosted after Greece’s parliament approved a critical austerity plan deemed necessary to avoid a sovereign debt default. <br /><br />During late Asian trade, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index jumped 1.55%, Australia’s ASX/200 Index surged 1.7%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index edged 0.2% higher.<br /><br />Greek lawmakers were due to vote later in the day on the implementation of different parts of a EUR28.4 billion, five-year austerity package, paving the way for the country to receive further bailout loans needed to avoid a debt default. <br /><br />Shares in Japanese lenders performed strongly, inspired from gains made by their global counterparts. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group saw shares climb 2.1%, while rival Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group gained 1.3%.<br /><br />Japanese exporters with exposure to Europe traded higher, with Sony jumping 3.1%, while Toyota gained 1.1%.<br /><br />Meanwhile, shares in Kyushu Electric Power Company rallied 4.2% after the governor of Saga prefecture, home to the company’s 36-year-old nuclear plant, signaled that he was not opposed to restarting reactors at the facility.<br /><br />That would mark the first restart from the 35 nuclear reactors shut for regular maintenance or kept idle since the March earthquake and tsunami.<br /><br />The news boosted other shares in the sector, with Kansai Electric surging 4.65% and Chugoku Electric climbing 2.5%.<br /><br />In Hong Kong, shares in oil producers led gains after oil prices rose above USD95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, boosting earnings prospects for energy explorers. <br /><br />China’s largest offshore oil producer CNOOC saw shares jump 2.15%, PetroChina shares advanced 1.1%, while China Shenhua Energy rose 1.9%.<br /><br />The outlook for European stock markets was upbeat. The EURO STOXX 50 futures pointed to a gain of 0.3%, France’s CAC 40 futures added 0.4%, the FTSE 100 futures eased up 0.25%, while Germany's DAX futures were up 0.2%. <br /><br />Later in the day, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet was to speak. Meanwhile, the U.S. was to publish its weekly government report on initial jobless claims, as well as data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region.<br /><br />
Forexpros - Forex Pros offers a diverse set of professional tools for Forex, Futures and CFDs. These include real-time data streams, technical and fundamental analysis by in-house experts, and a widely used economic calendar and Forex News.Read more posts on Forex Pros » Please follow Money Game on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story »
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If a picture is worth a thousand words, the following chart from the IMF encapsulates all the analysis one needs to understand why Mr. Trichet and the rest of the Eurozone bureaucracy are so adamant about not letting Greece restructure its debt. The leverage ratios of some of Europe’s country banking systems are nothing less than stunning. At the end of the day, it was Lehman’s leverage coupled with its overexposure to a declining asset class that brought it down. Once the markets sniffed this Lehman’s liquidity was cut off and rest is history. A Greek sovereign restructuring followed by, say Ireland and Portugal, and market speculation that Spain and Italy may be next, could bring down many of Europe’s thinly capitalized country banking systems. Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, believes the Great Depression was not caused by 1929 stock market crash, but by the the 1931 failure of Austria’s Creditanstalt. In a 2009 conversation with the Council of the Foreign Relations, the Chariman reflects, I learned basically two lessons from my studies of the depression. The first is that monetary policy needs to be supportive, not contractionary…The second lesson is that — to reiterate what I said before, is that when the financial system breaks down, becomes highly unstable, then that has very severe adverse effects on the economy… The Federal Reserve did not intervene to stop the failure of about a third of all the banks in the United States. Globally, there were massive bank failures. I think perhaps the most critical, in May of 1931, the Creditanstalt, which was one of the largest banks in Europe, failed, which generated a wave of financial crisis around the world. Up till early 1931, arguably the 1929 downturn was just a ordinary — severe but ordinary downturn. It was the financial crises and the collapse of banks and other institutions in late 1930 and early 1931 that made the Great Depression great. Does anyone hear the rhyme of history? These European banks can either raise new capital or shrink their balance sheets by reducing loans, for example, which, if done in mass, creates a credit crunch and an adverse impact on economic growth Hopefully, European policymakers are twisting the arms of these banks to reserve every single Euro of bailout money as their Greek, Irish, and Portuguese sovereign bonds mature against loan losses. This will require taking a hit to profits and pushback from the banks. Then, let the haircuts begin. That is, if the European political structure can endure for that long. (click here if chart is not observable)
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Based on his deep experience in Hong Kong, Marc Faber — investment analyst and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report — is concerned about investing hype in China. In a recent Bloomberg interview, he indicates that fraud is widespread, and that foreigners and likely to take the brunt of the pending fallout. Three of his key thoughts are paraphrased below and the clip itself follows. - Proliferation of fraud on a massive scale, as we have seen with Chinese companies, is symptomatic of a bubble or a mania… especially when it comes to US investors, because the general public doesn’t really understand China.
- The Mainland Chinese are more careful about cheating in Hong Kong, because – as Faber describes in his own colorful way — they feel a more tangible threat of retribution from misbehavior in Hong Kong.
- Faber believes that the people making the real money in China are the locals, and that it's much more difficult for foreign investors to become savvy about the market… they are more likely to get fleeced.
Lastly, Faber also covers some of his current thoughts on precious metals. You can view the Bloomberg interview below, which came to our attention via a Bearish News post on how Marc Faber still likes gold and silver. Marc Faber on the Massive Proliferation of Fraud in China originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning provides 400,000+ readers economic news, market analysis, and contrarian investment ideas. The Daily Reckoning features articles by Addison Wiggin author of Empire of Debt and Bill Bonner author of Financial Reckoning Day and The Idea of America. Read more posts on The Daily Reckoning » Please follow Money Game on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story »
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“Everything relates to failure. We grow up experiencing failure as children and then we go through it as adults. The key is understanding that failure is how we improve. You do this not by ignoring the failure, but by recognizing it, examining it thoroughly and not making any changes until you truly understand it.” “The truth is, fear of failure can lead you to your best achievements. This is especially true of performers — athletes, actors, musicians and so on — whose livelihoods depend solely on their talents.” The above quotes are from an excellent LA Times piece titled “The Advantage of Falling Short.” The piece looks at how instances of failure, and specific reactions to failure, often determine the path of future success. Examples range from high visibility failure at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), to the Tacoma Narrows Bridge collapse, to the Challenger disaster and the aftermath of high-tech layoffs in the bursting of the dotcom bubble. (The article was published in 2002.) This excerpt in particular felt relevant to trading — especially given how successful traders tend to endure vivid periods of failure early in their careers: This phenomenon, of the failure who resurrects himself in spectacular fashion, was formally documented in 1938. German psychologist Sara Jucknat reported that people who fail at something they deem vital to their identity will often set an even higher goal the next time. Their hope is that they can erase the failure with an impressive success. Along the way they prove to themselves, and perhaps the outside world, that they are, in fact, competent. Though Jucknat’s seminal study made the dynamics of success and failure a hot topic for a decade or so, interest cooled. It was revived in the 1970s and ’80s by researchers who preferred to study human strengths rather than pathologies. Martin Seligman is a psychologist at the University of Pennsylvania and a pioneer in studying how people cope successfully with adversity. His writings on “learned optimism” became classics in this field and inspired dozens of academics to begin looking at the positive qualities that help certain people rise above hard times. They found that those who turn failure into advantage share a handful of characteristics: They possess the analytical skills to take apart a fiasco and understand it well enough to make changes, says George Vaillant, director of the Study of Adult Development at Harvard Medical School. Vaillant has seen people develop this trait and use it to create successes, even late in life. They have “the capacity to form meaningful relationships,” Vaillant says. “These people can metabolize others — taking in what they have to teach — rather than being oblivious. These are the ones who find mentors throughout their lives. They have the ability to find meaning in what happens to them.” They also have the ability to be realistic, rather than undyingly optimistic, in the face of crises. Business management guru James Collins, author of the recent best-selling book “Good to Great,” says this point was brought home vividly during an interview he conducted with a Vietnam War prisoner, a retired naval officer. Realists succeed under the worst conditions, the officer said, while optimists “died of broken hearts.” That sounds like a checklist for learning from a tough trading period: - Keep evolving. Failure, evolution and adaptation are so thoroughly intertwined, it’s hard to know where one starts and the others stop. Successful traders court failure at the edges (through experimentation and small-scale tinkering) even when things are going well. As Samuel Beckett advised, “Try again. Fail again. Fail better.”
- Analyze the fiasco. Don’t sweep a negative experience under the rug. Break it apart like lego blocks, take an objective assessment of each piece, and extract as much knowledge and ‘tuition’ as possible, changing what needs changing while leaving the rest alone. (This is in line with improving your decision making skills.)
- Learn from others. Look to mentors, near or far, and try to gain from their insights. Metabolize the knowledge of others — and the mistakes of others when possible — while creating a ‘learning narrative’ as such that failures and setbacks have meaning. (They are there to teach and strengthen, not just make your life miserable.)
- Be realistic, not undyingly optimistic. Don’t die of a broken heart when the sunny forecast evaporates. Stay committed to the path when rough weather hits — as you should fully expect it to. (This goes back to Mental Conditioning and SEAL Team Six.)
The whole piece is worth reading.
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As the McClellan Oscillator confirms this rally we should expect the markets to move higher. Rarely does this indicator make new monthly highs and then the market fall flat on it’s face. Usually there is some sort of negative divergence that forms as the indicator prints a lower high while the market moves higher. This is not a guarentee and I’m using the bullish readings of my market timing signal as a confirming indicator. Add in the fact that oil is 25% off it’s highs which will should give the consumer a much needed break at the pumps and the dollar in what looks to be a bearish rising wedge…all signs are pointing that this rally should continue. I’m not in the camp that a rising dollar is bad for the stock market all of the time…but lately this seems to be the case. On a personal note, gas in Vancouver has come down a paltry 10 cents to $1.30/liter, so maybe my previous theory of lower oil equating to lower gas prices is erroneous. Seems like somebody is getting the good end of the stick in the petro price games and it’s not Vancouverites.
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HOUSTON (AP) — Ian Kinsler was upset in the third inning on Wednesday night after he was hit in the stomach by a pitch, but charged with a strike when the umpire ruled it a missed bunt attempt. He argued and Texas manager Ron Washington came out to argue, too, before he continued his at-bat. When he launched his second homer in as many at-bats four pitches later, Kinsler changed his tune on the call. Kinsler homered twice for the first time in almost two years and Colby Lewis had another solid start to lead the Rangers to a 3-2 win over the Houston Astros. Kinsler hit a leadoff homer and also went deep in the third inning to help Texas to an early 3-0 lead. It was the eighth multi-home run game of his career and his first since August 2009 against the Yankees. "We won the game by one run, so I'll take it. He got the call right," Kinsler said of the play where he was hit before breaking into a huge smile. In the end, Washington was also glad home plate umpire Bob Davidson called it a strike. "He said the strike supersedes the hit by the pitch and it worked in our favor because he ended up getting us another run," Washington said. Lewis (7-7) pitched six scoreless innings before giving up a pair of runs in the seventh inning to cut the Rangers lead to one. He allowed six hits and struck out six as the Rangers won their eighth straight game in Houston. "Colby was great tonight," Washington said. "He just got into that seventh inning and two pitches made me have to make a decision to get him out of that ball game. But up until that point he was just outstanding, had everything working." Carlos Lee had a solo homer for the Astros, who have dropped five straight, eight in a row at home and have the worst record in the majors at 28-53. "You never want to have that at any time," Houston manager Brad Mills said of his team's skid at Minute Maid Park. "Home is the place where you want to get yourself right. Right now, we are going through a tough time. There's no doubt about it." Neftali Feliz had a scoreless ninth for his 16th save. Houston starter Brett Myers (3-7) allowed six hits and three runs in seven innings. He has given up a Major League-high 22 home runs, which are two more than he allowed last season. Andres Blanco doubled after Kinsler's fourth leadoff homer of the season and the 17th of his career. Adrian Beltre's single to right field with one out scored Blanco to make it 2-0. Kinsler's second homer opened the third inning and landed in the Crawford Boxes in left field to make it 3-0. Lee's homer to left field that made it 3-1 came with one out in the seventh inning. Matt Downs doubled to the left field corner on the next pitch before Brett Wallace struck out. Clint Barmes' single to shallow center field scored Downs and got Houston within 3-2. "It was just a situation where they took advantage of my misses," Lewis said of the seventh inning. "They hadn't in previous innings and in that inning they kind of caught up to me." Carlos Corporan's double to right field chased Lewis. He was replaced by Darren Oliver, who retired pinch hitter Jason Michaels to escape the jam. Washington said it wasn't a difficult decision to pull Lewis when he did. "He had come too far for me to let him throw one more pitch up there and let one of those guys come through with a base hit and there's the game, we're behind," Washington said. "I felt like Colby didn't deserve that, so I went to the bullpen." The Rangers' offense cooled off after the first few innings and Houston retired 15 straight after Lewis hit his first career double to start the fifth inning. Lewis pitched a two-hitter for the first complete game of his career last June in a 5-1 win over the Astros at Minute Maid Park. It looked as if he might be headed for another one before his seventh-inning breakdown after he yielded just two hits — both singles — and had thrown just 58 pitches through six. Lewis sailed through the first three innings and didn't allow a hit until Hunter Pence singled to right field with two outs in the fourth inning. He retired the next six in a row before Michael Bourn singled with two outs in the sixth inning, but Jeff Keppinger's pop fly ended the inning. Bourn singled with no outs in the eighth inning, but was caught stealing. Oliver retired Keppinger before Mark Lowe struck out Pence to send it to the ninth. Lee walked in the ninth inning, but was caught stealing on a strikeout by Wallace to end the game. NOTES: Texas SS Elvis Andrus missed his fourth straight game after leaving Friday's game with a sprained left wrist. Washington said he's OK, but he might give him another day off on Thursday. ... Houston claimed OF Luis Durango off waivers from San Diego and optioned him to Triple-A Oklahoma City. The team transferred reliever Alberto Arias to the 60-day disabled list to make room for Durango on the 40-man roster. ... RHP David Carpenter was recalled by the Astros from Oklahoma City and C Brian Esposito was optioned there. Please follow Sports Page on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story » See Also:
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DENVER (AP) — A.J. Pierzynski drove in his second run of the game with a sacrifice fly in the ninth inning and the Chicago White Sox hung on to beat the Colorado Rockies 3-2 on Wednesday night. Carlos Quentin and Paul Konerko hit singles off Huston Street (0-2) to start the ninth with Quentin getting to third on Konerko's hit. Street struck out Alexei Ramirez before Pierzynski, who had an RBI double earlier, drove a fly ball to right field. Seth Smith ran in to make the catch but his throw home bounced near the third base line and catcher Chris Iannetta's attempt to snag the ball came up empty, allowing Quentin to cross the plate with the winning run. Sergio Santos got three outs — two on strikeouts — for his 16th save in 18 chances. Colorado missed a chance to take the lead in the eighth with the game tied 2-2. The Rockies loaded the bases with one out and reliever Brian Bruney (1-0) then induced Wigginton, whose bloop single drove in the winning run in Colorado's 3-2, 13-inning victory Tuesday night, to ground into a double play. Chicago starter Mark Buehrle had won 10 consecutive interleague decisions and came in with a major league-leading 24 wins in interleague play. Staked to a 2-0 lead against Colorado ace Ubaldo Jimenez, he appeared to be on course toward another victory. But Jason Giambi broke up Buehrle's shutout bid with two outs in the sixth inning, when he drove his 1-2 offering into the bleachers in left field for his ninth home run to pull the Rockies within 2-1. Colorado evened the score on Wigginton's leadoff homer in the seventh, marking the first time this season Buehrle had given up multiple homers in a game. One out later, Ryan Spilborghs singled and went to third when Buehrle's errant pickoff throw got past Konerko at first base. The wild pickoff throw ended a string of 51 consecutive errorless starts by Buehrle, who has won a Gold Glove in the previous two seasons. The White Sox got to Jimenez for two runs in the fourth, taking advantage of a lapse in Jimenez's control. Jimenez walked Juan Pierre to start the inning and after retiring Brent Morel on a flyout, hit Quentin with a pitch. Konerko followed with an RBI single and Pierzynski had a run-scoring double with two outs. Both Jimenez and Buehrle went seven innings and were not involved in the decision. Buehrle allowed seven hits and two runs with two walks and four strikeouts. Jimenez allowed two runs and four hits with two walks and four strikeouts. NOTES: Rockies 1B Todd Helton, who is one shy of his 2,000th career game, was given the night off. He's expected to play in the series finale on Thursday. ... Buehrle's pickoff of Wigginton at first base after walking him in the fourth inning was his major league-leading 78th pickoff since the start of the 2001 season. Please follow Sports Page on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story » See Also:
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DETROIT (AP) — Scott Hairston launched a bases-loaded triple and Ronny Paulino contributed four hits as part of another offensive barrage by the New York Mets, who beat the Detroit Tigers 16-9 on Wednesday night. The Mets set a team record by scoring 52 runs in a four-game span, STATS LLC said. They have 69 hits during their spree. Tigers utilityman Don Kelly got the final out, becoming the first Detroit position player to pitch since 2000. Smiling and laughing, Justin Verlander high-fived Kelly in the dugout — now the Detroit ace will try to stop the Mets on Thursday afternoon. Miguel Cabrera hit two of Detroit's five homers. The Mets romped despite not hitting any home runs. Winner Chris Capuano (7-7) went five-plus innings, giving up five runs and six hits. An apparent mixup later left reliever Tim Byrdak being summoned, even though he wasn't warming up — he scrambled to grab his glove off a bullpen shelf, gave up a two-run homer to the only batter he faced, and stormed into the dugout. Phil Coke (1-8) allowed seven earned and 10 hits in four-plus innings. A night after New York hit two grand slams, Hairston cleared the bases a different way in the first inning with a flyball to right-center that fell in to give the Mets a 4-0 lead. The Mets scored at least 14 runs for the third time in four games, including Tuesday night's 14-3 victory over Detroit. It was another football score Wednesday. The Mets scored 50 runs in four games from June 12-15, 1990, according to STATS. It was the first time since 2007 a team won despite being outhomered by at least five, according to STATS — Tampa Bay beat the Orioles 15-8 on Aug. 28 of that year, despite hitting only one home run to Baltimore's six. The Tigers fell into a virtual tie for first place in the AL Central with Cleveland. Paulino was hitting in the cleanup spot for the first time this season. Manager Terry Collins said he didn't want to put Jason Bay there because he's hitting well lately elsewhere in the lineup. Bay, batting one spot behind Paulino, had a single and four walks. Jose Reyes was again a catalyst for the Mets. He led off the first with a single and took second when Cabrera mishandled a pickoff throw for an error. Reyes stole third — his 30th steal of the season — and scored on a wild pitch by Coke that bounced over the screen behind the plate. New York loaded the bases later in the inning, and Hairston drove in three more runs with his triple. Angel Pagan made it 5-0 with an RBI single in the third, his second straight hit to start the game after reaching base in all five plate appearances Tuesday night. Pagan's streak of reaching base ended at seven. Reyes hit into a double play in the fourth after a second-inning single extended his streak of reaching base to eight plate appearances. Ryan Raburn hit a solo homer for Detroit in the third, and Cabrera added another in the fourth. New York answered with three more runs in the fifth. Paulino's RBI double knocked Coke out of the game. Ryan Perry came on in relief and allowed a run-scoring single to Bay — and another run came home on that play on an error by Austin Jackson in center field. Cabrera made it 8-5 with a three-run homer in the sixth, a 445-foot shot that reached the second level of ivy beyond the fence in left-center. It was his 17th homer of the season, and Jhonny Peralta hit his 13th of the year later that inning to pull the Tigers within two. Daniel Murphy hit a bases-loaded single in the seventh, scoring two more runs to make it 10-6. Dirks had a pinch-hit homer in the bottom of the inning with a runner on, making it 10-8. The Mets answered with four insurance runs, all with two out in the eighth. Pagan hit an RBI double, Murphy singled home two more runs, and Ruben Tejada added an RBI single. Pagan's two-run double in the ninth made it 16-9. NOTESS: Mets reliever Bobby Parnell had a pitch clocked at 103 miles per hour on the stadium scoreboard in the seventh. ... The Tigers recalled LHP Brad Thomas (left elbow inflammation) from his rehabilitation assignment with Triple-A Toledo, but he remains on the disabled list. ... Paulino became the sixth Met to hit cleanup this season. Please follow Sports Page on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story » See Also:
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PHILADELPHIA (AP) — Vance Worley didn't get Dustin Pedroia's autograph. He got the former MVP's attention — and the rest of the Boston Red Sox, too. Worley pitched seven strong innings, Raul Ibanez hit a tiebreaking solo homer in the seventh, and the Philadelphia Phillies beat the Red Sox 2-1 on Wednesday night. Worley (3-1) allowed one run, five hits and struck out five. The rookie right-hander has filled in nicely for injured starters Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton. He sent someone to get Pedroia's signature on a ball before the game, but came up empty. "He wouldn't give me one until I met him," Worley said. "Then I threw one up and in on him so I probably won't get it now." Worley dusted Pedroia with a high-and-tight fastball inside in the first inning and left an impression with his solid performance. "He had great mound presence, and we were all very impressed," Pedroia said. "It's really good for a kid that young to have a presence like that on the mound. He's going to be a good one." In a series billed as a World Series preview, the major league-leading Phillies (51-30) have taken two straight and go for a sweep Thursday. Michael Stutes pitched a perfect eighth and Antonio Bastardo finished for his third save and first filling in for Ryan Madson. The Phillies are down to their fourth closer with Madson, Jose Contreras and Brad Lidge on the disabled list. But their young relievers are doing well. "We talk about our starting pitching a lot and we should, but I'm real proud of the back end of our bullpen," manager Charlie Manuel said. "We have young kids who like to pitch and they gut it out. They're not afraid." Ibanez was 3 for 3 with two RBIs, falling a triple short of the cycle. He came in 5 for 44. John Lackey (5-7) gave up two runs and eight hits in 7 2-3 innings in one of his best starts this season. He lowered his ERA from 7.36 to 6.81. The Red Sox have lost six of seven since going 14-2. Desperate to wake up a slumping offense, Boston manager Terry Francona gave Adrian Gonzalez his second career start in right field so David Ortiz could play first base. Ortiz hadn't started the previous four games because there is no designated hitter in NL parks. It didn't work. Big Papi was 0 for 4. "Did that guy just come up or something? Man, because he looked pretty good to me," Ortiz said of Worley. "He had decent stuff, and it really looks like he's been around for a long time. "They've got four big starters here, right? Well, he looked like one of them out there tonight. He really looked comfortable. It's obvious that he's listening to those big starters over there. It's rubbing off on him." Gonzalez didn't have any putouts in his first game in right since 2005. He went back to the wall and leaped for a ball hit by Chase Utley in the eighth, but it bounced high off the railing and went for a triple. Ibanez put the Phillies up 2-1 when he led off the bottom of the seventh with a drive to the seats in right. It was his first homer since May 30, and snapped a streak of 90 at-bats without one. "He works hard and he stays at everything," Manuel said. The Red Sox tied it at 1 in the fifth on Lackey's fourth career hit. Josh Reddick singled with one out and scored on Lackey's two-out double. Lackey was 3 for 36 with one double and one RBI in his career before hitting a 3-2 pitch to deep left-center. Ibanez gave the Phillies a 1-0 lead in the second with an RBI single. Shane Victorino led off the inning with a double down the left-field line. He scored when Ibanez hit a hard liner to left-center. Notes: Red Sox RHP Clay Buchholz said he's unlikely to pitch before the All-Star break. Buchholz has been sidelined by a lower back strain. ... Lidge threw 35 pitches in a bullpen session and could be ready for a rehab assignment next week. Lidge has been out all season with shoulder and elbow problems. ... Bernard Hopkins, the oldest boxer to win a major world championship, talked to the Phillies before the game. ... A crowd of 45,612 was the 181st straight sellout at Citizens Bank Park, including postseason play. Please follow Sports Page on Twitter and Facebook. Join the conversation about this story » See Also:
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